March 30, 2023
In Light of its Sizeable Q4 adj.-GAAP EPS Miss ($0.82A vs. $1.20 est.), is the Street Still Too Optimistic? With global high-efficiency mono PERC module prices already down -8.8% YTD (vs. a full-year 2022 fall…
March 28, 2023
We Cut our 1Q23 Delivery Estimate by -5.6% to Reflect Early Start to Demand “Crush” in China + EU. Overnight, we got an update on TSLA’s sale of vehicles in China (where demand fell -15.1%…
March 23, 2023
Are Tesla’s Car Sales Slated to Pull Ahead of the Current Consensus Estimate of 419.706K? In short, after an extensive overview of all of TSLA’s key markets last night (China + EU + USA +…
March 21, 2023
So, Is Apollo the Current Administration Agent/Lender for RUN’s $1.8bn Warehouse Facility? While many – including two heads of structured product groups at Tier 1 investment banks – tell us they “believe” Apollo did indeed…
March 14, 2023
Are the Risks to Sunrun and Other ABS Solar Issuers Much More “Pronounced” Than Investors Currently Appreciate? Today, we had the opportunity to chat with the head of a major investment bank’s solar ABS desk….
March 7, 2023
Tesla China Sales Figures are in for the Week of Feb 27-Mar 5. Early this morning, we got updated sales figures for TSLA for the past week. In short, TSLA’s weekly sales came in at…
March 1, 2023
Daqo Just Reported 4Q22 Results that Missed Consensus by a “Nautical Mile” (as we warned 11/30/22). Yesterday, before the open, global polysilicon bellwether Daqo New Energy (“DQ”) reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $864M/$648M/$4.71, respectively, sharply missing…
February 28, 2023
Tesla’s China Sales Come in at 10.705K for the Week of Feb. 20th-Feb. 26th, or a -44.5% Miss to Consensus’ 19.302K Est. Ladies and gentlemen, it’s official, and even the (honest) TSLA bulls will tell…
February 27, 2023
WHAT’S UP? So… Sunrun reports the value it sells systems in the open market as “purchase customer ASP”, and the value it shows the IRS for tax collection purposes (where it uses a cockamamie 25-30yr…
February 23, 2023
Sunrun Sees Record Free-Cash-Flow Burn in Q4 and (Again) Doesn’t Earn its Cost of Capital. Yesterday, subprime solar roofing bellwether RUN reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $609M/-$70M/$0.29 vs. Cons’ $585.3M/-$39.8M/-$0.26. Furthermore, free-cash-flow came in at a…
February 21, 2023
Tesla Posts “Scary” Chinese Numbers. TSLA reported China sales for the week of Feb. 13-Feb. 19, and the numbers were disappointing yet again. That is, we note: (a) TSLA’s domestic China sales were down -15.1%…
February 17, 2023
How’d It All Begin? So… the entire full-self-drive mistruth/deception, in our view, began with the credibly alleged fraudulent (according to Bloomberg – link) “Paint it Black” video (link) from 2016, which remains on TSLA’s website….
February 14, 2023
Were TSLA’s Jan. 5th 13.4%-to-17.0% China Price Cuts Simply Not Enough? In short, as detailed in Ex. 1 below, we remind our readers that in TSLA’s most important/profitable market of China, on Jan. 5th, 2023,…
February 9, 2023
Despite a Strong Reaction in the Stock the Day it Reported Q4 Earnings (i.e., Feb. 3rd), with Big River (i.e., X’s Mini-Mill) Reporting Negative EBIT in Q4, as Well as Negative EBIT in X’s USSE…
January 31, 2023
Despite Comments to the Contrary from E. Musk on TSLA’s Q4 Earnings Call, Stagnant Lead-Times in China, Despite Sharp Price Cuts, Suggest Tesla Has a Demand Problem in its Largest Market. By way of background,…