Industrials


February 20, 2024

GLJ Macro Weekly: Is the Fed “Sleepwalking” us into a 10x Worse Recession in 2024 by Using the Wrong Neutral Rate & Ignoring UST Yields (which the bond market takes its cues from) in Favor of its Fed Funds Rate (which few use to price debt – i.e., banks pay 5bps for deposits)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Fed Using the Wrong Neutral Rate, Suggesting they are Sleepwalking the US Economy into a Much “Nastier” Recession than if they Weren’t Constantly Pushing Imminent Rate Cuts as a Certainty? Based on the…

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January 10, 2024

GLJ Macro Weekly – Was a Massive “Bull Trap” Set Following Janet Yellen’s Oct. 31st QRA “Shocker”, and is a 1Q24 Rug Pull Likely When Observing the Data?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Huh? Did you Say the 4Q23 Market Surge was a “Bull Trap“? First off, we note that J. Yellen’s Oct. 31st Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”) shocked market participants by focusing the US government’s 4Q23/1Q24 funding…

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October 31, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Spiking “Core” Services Inflation, or the Fed’s Key Measuring Stick (i.e., PCE) For Prices + the Return of the “Bond Vigilantes” in the U.S. = Big Trouble Ahead

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? We remind our readers that “core services” PCE inflation is what Fed chair Jerome Powell has been harping about in recent talks, with a laser focus on “core services PCE excluding housing” as…

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October 23, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks in the Midst of a “Humpty Dumpty”-Like Fall & Do “Real” Retail Sales Foretell Macro Pain Ahead?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? As a follow-up to our 10/9/23 note titled “GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the Next Great Shorts?“, since which the SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF has traded down -6.4%…

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October 9, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the “Next Great Short”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, which is a follow-up to our 8/30/23 GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly, where we asked: “Is it Time to Fade the Homebuilder Stocks“, we look at: (a) wage growth in the U.S.,…

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August 30, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With Home Sales Plunging + Cash Buyers Disappearing + Supply Rising = Is It Time to “Fade” the Homebuilder Stocks, Which Have Materially Outperformed YTD?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the US Housing Market Facing a Serious Problem N-Term (When Looking at the Host of Recently Available Data)? The SPDR S&P Homebuilder Index (XHB; NC) is up +36.1% YTD, significantly outperforming even the S&P…

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August 11, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With CPI Accelerating YoY, Core Services CPI Accelerating MoM, & Durable Goods Prices Normalizing at “Scary” High Levels, is the “Disinflation” Bull Thesis in Trouble?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Take on the July CPI Report. In this note, we provide our take on the July CPI report. That is, with Consensus now pricing in the first rate hike as soon as the 3/20/24…

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August 2, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Have You Heard of the Fed’s ‘Other Credit Extensions’ (“OCE”) Emergency Lending Facility & is It Possible the Repayment of OCE Loans this Year Will Create “Chaos” in US Stock Market(s)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In this Note, We Discuss What Could Prove to be a Mar. 2020-Like Black Swan in 3Q23/4Q23. Is there a black swan coming this year that’s currently flying under the radar? In this note, we…

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July 26, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – 20-City Case Shiller Home Price Index Shows 3rd Consecutive Year-over-Year Price Drop & Homebuyer DTI Ratios Surge; is “Housing Bubble 2.0” at Risk of Popping

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, How’s the Housing Market Shaping Up? In this note, we look at: (a) the recent Case-Shiller National Home Price Index data reported yesterday, as well as (b) US homebuyer debt-to-income ratios (“DTIs”) and downpayment…

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July 7, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – “Mr. Market” is Telling Us: Houston, We Have a “Liquidity” Problem

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Update on Global Liquidity from the Ten Central Banks we Track as well as a Steel Industry “Check-Up”. In this note, we look at the current liquidity situation at the world’s largest ten Central Banks…

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June 12, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Liquidity Check-In, May Rental Inflation Update (has the Fed “Licked” Rent Inflation), & Steel Market Chart Refresh

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So How are Things Trending when Looking at Liquidity, Rent Inflation, and Steel Market Data? In this note, we provide a check-in on: (a) the state of U.S. liquidity when looking at a combination of…

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May 25, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Does the Re-Acceleration in April Rent Inflation Suggest the Fed’s Victory Lap About “Having Licked” Rent Inflation was… Premature?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is There a Pending Disaster Brewing on the Fed’s Inflation Fight Front, which is Flying Completely Under the Radar? In recent communications with the market, the Fed has expressed its view that core inflation (i.e.,…

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May 22, 2023

GLJ Research Macro Update: “Magical Elixir” Update – So Far, The “GLJ Research Elixir” Has Worked in Predicting Stock Market Moves… So What’s to Come?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Invesco QQQ Index and the Treasury General Account (“TGA”) Balance Have Tracked Each Other Quite Closely Since 11/1/22. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s TGA account balance (i.e., the “piggy…

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May 18, 2023

GLJ Research Macro Update – What if we Told you We had a “Magical Elixir” that Could Help you Outperform Tech Stocks (i.e., the QQQs) Until the Debt Ceiling was Resolved?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Invesco QQQ Index and the Treasury General Account (“TGA”) Balance Have Tracked Each Other Quite Closely Since 11/1/22. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s TGA account balance (i.e., the “piggy…

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