Industrials


August 30, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With Home Sales Plunging + Cash Buyers Disappearing + Supply Rising = Is It Time to “Fade” the Homebuilder Stocks, Which Have Materially Outperformed YTD?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the US Housing Market Facing a Serious Problem N-Term (When Looking at the Host of Recently Available Data)? The SPDR S&P Homebuilder Index (XHB; NC) is up +36.1% YTD, significantly outperforming even the S&P…

Read More >>

August 11, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With CPI Accelerating YoY, Core Services CPI Accelerating MoM, & Durable Goods Prices Normalizing at “Scary” High Levels, is the “Disinflation” Bull Thesis in Trouble?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Take on the July CPI Report. In this note, we provide our take on the July CPI report. That is, with Consensus now pricing in the first rate hike as soon as the 3/20/24…

Read More >>

August 2, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Have You Heard of the Fed’s ‘Other Credit Extensions’ (“OCE”) Emergency Lending Facility & is It Possible the Repayment of OCE Loans this Year Will Create “Chaos” in US Stock Market(s)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In this Note, We Discuss What Could Prove to be a Mar. 2020-Like Black Swan in 3Q23/4Q23. Is there a black swan coming this year that’s currently flying under the radar? In this note, we…

Read More >>

July 26, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – 20-City Case Shiller Home Price Index Shows 3rd Consecutive Year-over-Year Price Drop & Homebuyer DTI Ratios Surge; is “Housing Bubble 2.0” at Risk of Popping

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, How’s the Housing Market Shaping Up? In this note, we look at: (a) the recent Case-Shiller National Home Price Index data reported yesterday, as well as (b) US homebuyer debt-to-income ratios (“DTIs”) and downpayment…

Read More >>

July 7, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – “Mr. Market” is Telling Us: Houston, We Have a “Liquidity” Problem

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Update on Global Liquidity from the Ten Central Banks we Track as well as a Steel Industry “Check-Up”. In this note, we look at the current liquidity situation at the world’s largest ten Central Banks…

Read More >>

June 12, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Liquidity Check-In, May Rental Inflation Update (has the Fed “Licked” Rent Inflation), & Steel Market Chart Refresh

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So How are Things Trending when Looking at Liquidity, Rent Inflation, and Steel Market Data? In this note, we provide a check-in on: (a) the state of U.S. liquidity when looking at a combination of…

Read More >>

May 25, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Does the Re-Acceleration in April Rent Inflation Suggest the Fed’s Victory Lap About “Having Licked” Rent Inflation was… Premature?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is There a Pending Disaster Brewing on the Fed’s Inflation Fight Front, which is Flying Completely Under the Radar? In recent communications with the market, the Fed has expressed its view that core inflation (i.e.,…

Read More >>

May 22, 2023

GLJ Research Macro Update: “Magical Elixir” Update – So Far, The “GLJ Research Elixir” Has Worked in Predicting Stock Market Moves… So What’s to Come?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Invesco QQQ Index and the Treasury General Account (“TGA”) Balance Have Tracked Each Other Quite Closely Since 11/1/22. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s TGA account balance (i.e., the “piggy…

Read More >>

May 18, 2023

GLJ Research Macro Update – What if we Told you We had a “Magical Elixir” that Could Help you Outperform Tech Stocks (i.e., the QQQs) Until the Debt Ceiling was Resolved?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Invesco QQQ Index and the Treasury General Account (“TGA”) Balance Have Tracked Each Other Quite Closely Since 11/1/22. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s TGA account balance (i.e., the “piggy…

Read More >>