Our Research


November 7, 2024

SolarEdge Reports Dismal Q3 Results (as we warned) & Guides Poorly (as we warned); but, the Real “Star” Was the Depressing 4Q24E Gross Margin Guidance, Despite Writing Inventories Down by -68.4%

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge and the “Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day” Quarter. Last night, after the close, our current top solar short idea, SEDG, reported 3Q24 rev/non-GAAP EPS/free-cash-flow of $260.9mn/-$15.33/-$111.2mn vs. Cons. $273.4mn/-$1.67/-$77.6mn (GLJe $254.4mn/-$1.69/-$108.8mn) – i.e., a herculean…

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November 6, 2024

We Believe Donald Trump’s New IRS Commissioner Will Reduce SunRun’s Ability, Via Section 1603, to Inflate the Value of its Systems 78.8%-to-213.0% for US Tax Credit Purposes; Downgrade to SELL; 2024E PT $7.78/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Downgrade SunRun to SELL on Donald Trump’s U.S. Presidential Victory. With a new IRS Commissioner imminent, we move our rating on SunRun to SELL and re-introduce our 2024E year-end price target of $7.78/shr, or…

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November 5, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for 3Q24 & Sep. ’24 Provide Insights Into U.S. Solar Market and SolarEdge/Enphase

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Update from California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) – Pulse on US Solar Market Thru Sep. 2024 (3Q24 Solar Market Sales in California Down -43.5% YoY & -0.6% QoQ, with Sep. 2024 Sales Down -32.8% & -7.4% YoY…

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November 4, 2024

How Have Solar Stocks Performed 1-Month, 3-Months, and 6-Months Out After the Past 4 U.S. Presidential Elections?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How Have Solar Stocks Performed, Post Election, Since Obama was First Elected (i.e., Nov. 5th, 2008)? In this note we look at how the Invesco Solar TAN ETF Index has performed over the last four…

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October 31, 2024

Our Trading Call on Sunnova Falls Flat – NOVA Reports “Nightmarish” 3Q24 Figures

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Cash Incinerating “Science Project” Company Sunnova Exhibits What it Does Best… Burn a Heap Load of Free-Cash-Flow (“FCF”). Yesterday, after the close, cash-incinerating third-party solar EPC/financing science-project company NOVA reported 3Q24 rev/adj.-EPS/FCF of $235mn/-$0.98/-$559.0mn vs….

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October 30, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – (1) Fireside Chat w/ Largest US Distributor Provides Insights into How US Demand is Trending + (2) Chat w/ Large Chinese Hedge Fund Sheds Light on Bruited Domestic Chinese Solar Output Caps + (3) Update on China Installs Through Sep. 2024

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, all solar substrates in China were…

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October 29, 2024

JinkoSolar 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Do Chinese Parts Suppliers Have a Q3 “Big Trouble in Little China” Problem?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

JinkoSolar Reports Q3 Earnings Before the Market Opens Tomorrow. Ahead of JKS’ 3Q24 earnings report this Wed., below, using intra-quarter movements in solar poly-Si, wafer, cell, and module prices (as well as the company’s Q3…

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October 28, 2024

Upgrade to HOLD on Risk Into Earnings; Long-Term Stance on Core Business Being a Cash-Incinerator Unchanged

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sunrun Reports Earnings Next Week on Thursday. Ahead of RUN’s 3Q24E results next Thursday, in this note, we detail why we believe being short the stock (into earnings) carries with it quite a bit of…

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October 24, 2024

Tesla Q3 Review – Margins Surge on FSD/ZEV Credit Sale & What Appears to be More Capitalized Expenses (Similar to WorldCom/HealthSouth); & E. Musk Guides to Record Q4 Deliveries of >514.9K Cars

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Reports Strong Unaudited Q3 Numbers, and Guides to Record Q4 Delivery Growth vs. Tepid Delivery Data Thus Far. Yesterday, after the close, TSLA reported rev/adj.-EPS of $25.2bn/$0.72 vs. Cons. $25.4bn/$0.60 (GLJe $25.4bn/$0.49). Furthermore, TSLA…

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October 23, 2024

A Financial Reporter Asked Us About the Old Maxim “You Should Never Bet Against Elon Musk”; in the Below, we Provide our Answer

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Early This AM We Got the Age-Old Question Around Tesla From a Prominent Financial Reporter. Around 3:13am this morning, while GLJ was tending to 4.8-month old GLJ Jr. (for the 3rd time since going to…

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October 22, 2024

Enphase 3Q24 Earnings Review: The Bigger They Are (ENPH Trades at a 36.6x P/E), The Harder They Fall (ENPH’s Q4 Guidance Misses by a “Nautical Mile”)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Enphase is the Solar Darling of Both Wall Street (i.e., the Sell-Side) and the Hamptons “Elite” (i.e., the Buy-Side). When looking at the current distribution of Wall Street ratings for ENPH, we note 22 BUYS,…

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October 17, 2024

Tesla Q3 Preview – We See a -18.3% Adj.-EPS Miss on Deck & a Hypothetical Fair Value of ~$60/shr (Even When Giving E. Musk Credit for His Perpetually Delayed Robotaxi “Promise”)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We See a Significant Q3 Adj.-EPS Miss on Deck, as Well as Q3 Free Cash Flow of -$18mn vs. the Current Cons. Est. of +$1.635bn. Based on the analysis herein, we believe TSLA is slated…

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October 8, 2024

What if the Cavalry (i.e., the “Magical Rebound” Wall Street Typically Predicts for Fallen Solar Stars) Isn’t Coming? Is SolarEdge Still a Good/Great Short Following its Recent Acute Slide?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge Still Boasts 4 BUYS, 28 HOLDS, w/ just 5 SELLS (despite collapsing -78.2% YTD vs. +19.4% for the S&P 500 YTD), and an Avg. Forward 12-Month Price Target of $32.45 (i.e., +58.9% upside from…

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October 2, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – August 2024 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” – Is Tesla Taking Storage Share Away from Enphase?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China were not…

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September 30, 2024

Has the Decision by China’s State Grid Company to Cut the Avg. Price it Pays for Solar Power to ~0.15 Yuan/kWh, from ~0.39 Yuan/kWh in 2023, Put Global Solar Demand at Risk? What’s up w/ U.S./Europe Solar Demand?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

On Sep. 23rd, China’s National Energy Administration (“NEA”) Released Data on Chinese Solar Installs Through Aug. 2024. In what follows, we provide an update on the state of the world’s most important solar market, China….

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