March 26, 2025
Is the Recent U.S. Stock Market Rally on its “Last Leg”? With U.S. tax season nearing, meaning a material amount of liquidity is set to exit the U.S. market, combined with the share buyback blackout…
March 24, 2025
Data out of California Last Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 1Q25E Earnings Season for the MLPE U.S. Inverter Bellwethers (i.e., SEDG + ENPH). In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from: (a) the California Solar Initiative…
March 12, 2025
Cameco Recently Reported Better Than Expected 4Q24A Results. A few weeks back, Cameco reported adjusted 4Q24 EPS of $0.36, besting Consensus’ $0.33. More important, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of C$524mn (+70% QoQ and +56%…
March 5, 2025
California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from December’s CSI data dump, and…
February 27, 2025
Cleveland Cliffs Reports 4Q24 Results that (Largely) Disappoint. This week, CLF reported 4Q24 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $4.3bn/-$0.68 vs. Cons’ $4.3bn/-$0.69 ests. (GLJe $4.4bn/-$0.53). The company also posted lackluster free-cash-flow (“FCF”) of -$677mn, missing the Street’s…
February 18, 2025
China Plans Mid-Year Change to the Way it Compensates Renewable Energy. Beginning June 1st, China plans to end its fixed pricing mechanism for renewable energy and require electricity generated from such sources to be sold…
February 12, 2025
Is U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent About to Unleash the U.S. Liquidity Kraken? In general, U.S. liquidity defined as: Δ in Fed Bal. Sheet – Δ in Treasury General Account (“TGA”) – Δ in Reverse…
February 12, 2025
Tesla’s Week 6 China Sales Update Yesterday = No Bueno; U.S./European Sales Show (very) Troubling Signs; and June Unsupervised Robotaxi Rollout Appears Set to Severely Disappoint. In this note, we update TSLA’s global sales trend…
February 4, 2025
Enphase is Set to Report 4Q24E Earnings After the Close Today. In this note, after checks done, primarily in Europe this week, we have updated our bottoms-up earnings driver model for Module-Level-Performance-Electronics (“MLPE”) bellwether Enphase….
January 28, 2025
Will Earnings be a Positive Catalyst (Similar to 3Q24) or a Negative Catalyst (Similar to 2Q24)? Due to: (a) a record mix of negative-gross-margin Chinese car sales in Q4 (i.e., 39.7% vs. 39.6% in Q3,…
January 23, 2025
Is Jinko Solar Still a Good Short Following its -33.9% Trailing-Twelve-Month Fall (vs. the S&P 500 Rising +25.1% Over the Same Timeframe)? Interestingly, we remind our readers that JKS is guiding its U.S. shipment mix…
January 16, 2025
Does Canadian Solar Still Represent a “Solid Short Play” Following its Collapse Over the Past 2yrs? In this note, we analyze: (1) the capacity for China’s top 9 solar cell makers in 2025E vs. 2025E…
January 14, 2025
Is It True that if One Can Accurately Predict the Path of US Treasury Yields, One Can Also, With Great Veracity, Predict What US Solar Stocks Will Do? As outlined in Ex. 1 below, since…
January 12, 2025
“It’s Liquidity that Moves Markets” – Stanley Druckenmiller. In this note, we look to address the n-term outlook for U.S. equities when considering: (a) the Overnight Reverse Repo (“RRP”) facility, or money created during the…
January 7, 2025
Is there a “Trump Put” Play for U.S. Steel Stocks in the Offing? While we believe (strongly) the U.S. economy is in much worse shape than many pundits acknowledge (detailed below), with Trump set to…