Our Research


April 17, 2025

Has the Collective of Wall Street and TroyTeslike Made a “Grave Error” in Forecasting Tesla’s 2Q25E Car Deliveries (in favor of “TSLAQ”)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Consensus Making a Grave Error in its Estimate for Tesla’s 2Q25E Global Auto Sales? The best investing opportunities arise when there are material dislocations between what Consensus expects vs. what is most likely to…

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April 15, 2025

Are Investors Underestimating the Top Twelve “Casualties of Trump’s Trade War” in the Solar Sector?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Solar Investors Too Focused on an Overly Simplistic Binary, where “More Trump Tariffs = Bad” vs. “Less Trump Tariffs = Good”, when they Should be Focused on how Trump’s Tariffs will Impact Individual Solar…

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April 8, 2025

Fire-Side Chat with Largest Distributor of U.S. Solar Products Provides Insights into the Current State of the Domestic Solar Inverter/Battery Markets

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Update on the “State of the Union” of the US Solar Market. In what follows, we provide a Q&A we had, yesterday, with the largest distributor of solar products in the U.S. Fire-Side Chat with…

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April 2, 2025

Does the +15%/+24% 2025E-27E Revenue CAGR (as Well as Surging Margins Over the Same Timeframe) Wall Street is Modeling for Enphase/SolarEdge Match Up with Recent On-The-Ground Checks?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

At the Margin, a Company’s Actual Results vs. Wall Street’s Estimates Determine the Path of the Stock Price. In this note, following recent on-the-ground U.S. solar residential market checks, we seek to answer if the…

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March 31, 2025

GLJe Tesla 1Q25E and 2025E Delivery Estimate Update – What will Tesla Tell Us Tomorrow, and is it “Priced In”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

GLJ Tesla 1Q25E and 2025E Delivery and Production Estimate Update. While we have, previously, generalized TSLA’s 1Q25E deliveries at 360K-370K, in what follows we provide the thought process around the evolution of our TESLA 1Q25E/2025E…

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March 26, 2025

GLJ Macro Weekly – With April Tax Payments Set to Imminently Commence Combined w/ a Lack of Share Buybacks as we Enter the Blackout Period (3rd Week of Mar.-to-Last Week of April) is a N-Term U.S. Liquidity Squeeze Going to Put a Damper on the Recent Stock Market Rally?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Recent U.S. Stock Market Rally on its “Last Leg”? With U.S. tax season nearing, meaning a material amount of liquidity is set to exit the U.S. market, combined with the share buyback blackout…

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March 24, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – Jan. California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Paint “Grim” Picture for 2025E U.S. Solar Demand + Update on Jan. + Feb. 2025 China Installs and 2024 Australian Solar Installs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Data out of California Last Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 1Q25E Earnings Season for the MLPE U.S. Inverter Bellwethers (i.e., SEDG + ENPH). In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from: (a) the California Solar Initiative…

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March 12, 2025

Are the “Uranium Bears” Overplaying Their Hand, Setting Up (Yet) Another Opportunity to Buy the U3O8 Miners? And, Fire-Side Chat w/ Cameco Addresses Key Questions; Maintain BUY Rating; PT Edges Higher to C$75.68/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Cameco Recently Reported Better Than Expected 4Q24A Results. A few weeks back, Cameco reported adjusted 4Q24 EPS of $0.36, besting Consensus’ $0.33. More important, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of C$524mn (+70% QoQ and +56%…

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March 5, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for 4Q24 & Dec. ’24 Paints a Grim Portrait of SolarEdge/Enphase/Storage-Demand

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from December’s CSI data dump, and…

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February 27, 2025

CLF’s ‘Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day’ Q4 Brings our Yr-End 2025E PT Down to $12.90/shr; Yet, We Maintain BUY on ‘Trump Put’, but Recommend Hedging by Shorting Sep. HRC $879/t Futures & Iron Ore Stocks

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Cleveland Cliffs Reports 4Q24 Results that (Largely) Disappoint. This week, CLF reported 4Q24 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $4.3bn/-$0.68 vs. Cons’ $4.3bn/-$0.69 ests. (GLJe $4.4bn/-$0.53). The company also posted lackluster free-cash-flow (“FCF”) of -$677mn, missing the Street’s…

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February 18, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – What Do Our China Contacts Think of the CCP’s Shift to Compensating Renewable Energy Via Market-Determined Rates vs. its Current Fixed Mechanism?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

China Plans Mid-Year Change to the Way it Compensates Renewable Energy. Beginning June 1st, China plans to end its fixed pricing mechanism for renewable energy and require electricity generated from such sources to be sold…

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February 12, 2025

GLJ Macro Weekly – Despite all of His Rhetoric to the Contrary, is New U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Really Just “Janet Yellen 2.0” & Did Powell Just Pivot to a Hawkish Stance to “Counter” Him?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent About to Unleash the U.S. Liquidity Kraken? In general, U.S. liquidity defined as: Δ in Fed Bal. Sheet – Δ in Treasury General Account (“TGA”) – Δ in Reverse…

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February 12, 2025

Nearly Halfway Thru 1Q25 Tesla’s Global Demand Headwinds are Proving Acute/Structural; & Why the Company has a Serious/Budding “FSD Problem”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s Week 6 China Sales Update Yesterday = No Bueno; U.S./European Sales Show (very) Troubling Signs; and June Unsupervised Robotaxi Rollout Appears Set to Severely Disappoint. In this note, we update TSLA’s global sales trend…

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February 4, 2025

Enphase Q4 Preview – We See a -25.9% Adj.-EPS Miss on Deck & 48.1% Gross Margin vs. Consensus’ Est. of 48.6%

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Enphase is Set to Report 4Q24E Earnings After the Close Today. In this note, after checks done, primarily in Europe this week, we have updated our bottoms-up earnings driver model for Module-Level-Performance-Electronics (“MLPE”) bellwether Enphase….

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January 28, 2025

Tesla Q4 Preview – We See a -8.8% Adj.-EPS Miss on Deck & a 14.0% Automotive Gross Margin (Excl. Credit Sales) vs. Consensus’ Est. of 16.2%

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Will Earnings be a Positive Catalyst (Similar to 3Q24) or a Negative Catalyst (Similar to 2Q24)? Due to: (a) a record mix of negative-gross-margin Chinese car sales in Q4 (i.e., 39.7% vs. 39.6% in Q3,…

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