Our Research
March 23, 2023
Will Tesla’s 1Q23 Auto Deliveries Actually Surprise to the Upside Due to “Otherworldly” Price Cuts Since January?
Are Tesla’s Car Sales Slated to Pull Ahead of the Current Consensus Estimate of 419.706K? In short, after an extensive overview of all of TSLA’s key markets last night (China + EU + USA +…
March 22, 2023
Weekly Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/22/23) – GE Prices Flat Again; US HRC Futures Move (Slightly) Lower, Chinese Rebar Prices Now -3.3% Off Recent Highs (Is the “Grand Reopening” Fizzling?)
Graphite Electrode Prices “Quiet” this Week After Big Declines; US HRC Prices Appear to be Stabilizing. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite…
March 22, 2023
Weekly Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/22/23) – Domestic Chinese Poly-Si Prices “Crushed” Again; Module Prices Join in the Price Recession
Commentary from 3/22/23 – PVInsights. “Surging supply keep weakening polysilicon and solar modules. Polysilicon prices weakened this week as suppliers worried about a potential escalation of inventories amid rising supply, and Chinese buyers stayed their expectation…
March 21, 2023
We Have Confirmed that a Large Publicly-Traded Solar Resi Rooftop Player Who Has a $575mn Warehouse Line w/ Credit Suisse Has Not Transferred this Facility to Apollo; Uh Oh!
So, Is Apollo the Current Administration Agent/Lender for RUN’s $1.8bn Warehouse Facility? While many – including two heads of structured product groups at Tier 1 investment banks – tell us they “believe” Apollo did indeed…
March 20, 2023
GLJ Research Updated Solar Industry Pitch Book – Updated 2023E Solar Thesis
We Have Updated our 35-Page Solar Deck. In short, the core themes detailed in our updated solar pitch book include: (1) our view that pol-Si will return to oversupply this year, crashing prices back down…
March 19, 2023
Were You Aware that Sunnova is, as Per a 3/16/23 8-K Filing, Seeking a De Facto $3.3bn US Government Funded Bailout (and Their General Counsel Has Retired Effective Immediately)?
Skimming Sunnova’s 8-K Filings this Morning, we Made a Significant Discovery. Skimming NOVA’s website today, we found a groundbreaking 8-K filing that seems to be flying under the radar. That is, we found that: (a)…
March 15, 2023
Weekly Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/15/23) – Prices Flat Across the Board; US HRC Futures Stabilize, While US Rebar Prices Edge Lower
Graphite Electrode Prices “Quiet” this Week After Big Declines; US HRC Prices Appear to be Stabilizing. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite…
March 15, 2023
Weekly Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/15/23) – Domestic Chinese Poly-Si Prices “Tumble Again”; Wafer Prices, However, Perk Up
Commentary from 3/15/23 – PVInsights. “Polysilicon struggles between sales and pricing amid rising inventories and surge downside risks. Polysilicon prices tumbled on Wednesday as the disappointing stockpile drawdown raised fears of the glut and weighed on…
March 14, 2023
Fireside Chat with Executive Director of Bulge-Bracket Solar ABS Desk Sheds Light on the Many “Hidden” Risks Facing the Resi Rooftop Solar Vendors (Q&A Below)
Are the Risks to Sunrun and Other ABS Solar Issuers Much More “Pronounced” Than Investors Currently Appreciate? Today, we had the opportunity to chat with the head of a major investment bank’s solar ABS desk….
March 10, 2023
Metals & Mining Weekly – US Money Supply is Officially Contracting for the First Time Since the Great Depression; Should I be Worried?
Should Investors Worry that US M2 is Officially Falling as the Velocity of M2 Stages a Violent Resurgence? As we’re seeing with Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB; NC), free money, while attractive when it’s flowing, can…
March 9, 2023
Solar Weekly Update – Fire Side Chat w/ Top U.S. Solar Distribution Behemoth Sheds Light on Current State of U.S. Solar Market
Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…
March 8, 2023
Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/8/23) – Price Declines Accelerate Week-Over-Week, with 600mm UHP Prices Down -2.51%; US HRC Futures Prices “Stop Going Up”
Graphite Electrode Prices Give Back (Even More) of the Recent Gains. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite electrode substrates in RMB and…
March 8, 2023
Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/8/23) – Poly-Si Prices “Re-Tumble”; Mono PERC Module Prices Also Weaken (now down -7.02% YTD)
Commentary from 3/8/23 – PVInsights. “Polysilicon prices slide on surging inventory dumping tensions. Polysilicon prices tumbled on Wednesday as the market reeled from fears of another ramp-up in capacity expansion and a large build in China…
March 7, 2023
Tesla Weekly China Sales Update & Feb. 2023 EU Sales Overview – What to Expect for 1Q23E Deliveries?
Tesla China Sales Figures are in for the Week of Feb 27-Mar 5. Early this morning, we got updated sales figures for TSLA for the past week. In short, TSLA’s weekly sales came in at…
March 1, 2023
“Beware the Ides of March”, or in this Case Severe Deflation Set to Take Hold of Global Polysilicon Prices
Daqo Just Reported 4Q22 Results that Missed Consensus by a “Nautical Mile” (as we warned 11/30/22). Yesterday, before the open, global polysilicon bellwether Daqo New Energy (“DQ”) reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $864M/$648M/$4.71, respectively, sharply missing…