Our Research
February 5, 2023
Metals & Mining Weekly – Were Hedge Funds Caught on the Wrong Side of J. Powell and is the Violent Upside Seen YTD Set to Reverse Just as Fast as it Emerged?
There has been an Earthquake at Quant Funds that Has Sent Meme Stocks (TSLA + AMC + COIN + GME + BBBY + etc.) Soaring; is it Sustainable? The bears have been decimated this year,…
February 5, 2023
Metals & Mining Weekly – Were Hedge Funds Caught on the Wrong Side of J. Powell and is the Violent Upside Seen YTD Set to Reverse Just as Fast as it Emerged?
There has been an Earthquake at Quant Funds that Has Sent Meme Stocks (TSLA + AMC + COIN + GME + BBBY + etc.) Soaring; is it Sustainable? The bears have been decimated this year,…
January 31, 2023
Solar Snippet – Is NEM 2.0 “Pull-In” Going to Benefit 4Q22 Results & 1Q23E Guide, & Does SolarEdge Have More Resi Inverters Available?
Sell-Side Non-Deal Roadshow Last Week Points to NEM 2.0 Pull-In; Should the “Solar Bears” be Worried? In short, last week, we received a number of requests from institutional solar investors no our opinions around the…
January 31, 2023
Tesla’s Weekly China Sales Report Card is Out – Looks Like E. Musk’s Car Company Will Have to Cut Prices (Again) to Move Metal in China
Despite Comments to the Contrary from E. Musk on TSLA’s Q4 Earnings Call, Stagnant Lead-Times in China, Despite Sharp Price Cuts, Suggest Tesla Has a Demand Problem in its Largest Market. By way of background,…
January 30, 2023
Metals & Mining Weekly – Is Core Inflation Re-Accelerating, Is Spending on Goods (Following Pandemic Binge) Fizzling Out, and Is there An Easy Explanation for the Recent Surge in “Meme” Stocks?
While Many Claim the “Inflation Monster” has Been Slayed, with December Services Inflation Spiking and Core PCE Re-Accelerating (Balanced, Modestly, by Goods Inflation Plunging) We Foresee a More Hawkish Powell Later this Week. As is…
January 25, 2023
Solar Pricing Update (Week of 1/25/23) – Poly-Si + Wafer + Cell Prices Muted Due to CNY; Module Prices, However, Fall
Commentary from 1/25/23 – PVInsights. “Depressed international solar modules, muted China silicon materials during Lunar New Year holiday January 25, 2023. Polysilicon was roughly flat on Wednesday as the market in China stayed mute amid…
January 25, 2023
Q4 Preview – TSLA’s 1Q23E Guidance is the Real “Main Attraction” Given the Company’s Jan. 2023 Midnight Massacre Price Cuts
Why Do We Say the 1Q23 Guide is What Matters? When looking at the period from 4Q22-to-1Q23, the avg. price decline, thus far, is: (a) -13.3% for the USA, (b) -10.5% for Europe, and (c)…
January 23, 2023
Nov. California Solar Initiative Insights Into U.S. Battery Storage Trends + 2022 U.S. Solar Imports/Installs Update + State of China Solar Demand
Solar Weekly Update – Focus on Nov. Battery Storage Data/China Demand Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday…
January 23, 2023
Following a Full Model Revamp, CSIQ’s Forward Earnings Appear Set to Be Rerated Lower for New Environment; PT Lower to $12.22/shr
2022 Was a Good Year for Canadian Solar; 2023E Appears Set to be the Exact Opposite. In its most recent quarter, CSIQ reported rev/GAAP-EPS of $1.93B/$1.12 vs. Cons’ ests. of $1.86B/$0.30 (a material beat, at…
January 18, 2023
Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 1/18/23) – Price Declines Accelerate Week-Over-Week, with 600mm UHP Prices Down -2.55%
Graphite Electrode Prices Give Back (Even More) of the Recent Gains. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite electrode substrates in…
January 18, 2023
Solar Pricing Update (Week of 1/18/23) – Poly-Si + Wafer + Cell Prices Rebound on Wafer Capacity Cuts; Module Prices, However, Miss the Rally
Commentary from 1/18/23 – PVInsights. “Bullish wafer prices through production cuts lead cell and polysilicon upwards January 18, 2023. Polysilicon prices in China turned higher on Wednesday as strengthening wafer pricing buoyed sentiment, while Chinese…
January 13, 2023
Tesla’s 1/12/23 “Midnight Massacre” US and EU Price Cuts Support our Longstanding Thesis
Last Night, as We Warned Would Happen on Monday of this Week, Tesla Engaged in Aggressive Price Cuts in Both the US and EU (as well as Canada). As detailed in Ex. 1 below, and…
January 12, 2023
Do Planned 2023E Shipments from the World’s Top-6 Global Solar Cell Makers, Alone, Suggest a “Price War for the Ages” is About to Erupt?
Solar Weekly Update – Focus on Module Oversupply & Potential Price War Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday…
January 11, 2023
Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 1/11/13) – UHP 600mm Chinese GE Prices Tumble -3.29% Week-Over-Week, Giving Back Some (More Recent) Gains
Graphite Electrode Prices Give Back Some of the More Recent Gains. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite electrode substrates in…
January 11, 2023
Solar Pricing Update (Week of 1/11/23) Domestic Chinese Solar Prices Join in “Market Crash”, w/ Poly-Si Falling -24.86% Week-Over-Week
Commentary from 1/11/23 – PVInsights. Cell and wafer prices rebound unexpectedly on Strong CNY, but module competition intensifies, sending prices lower. Polysilicon prices kept tumbling this week, unable to shake off the downbeat mood of…