Our Research


August 26, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 8/26/2026: Pricing Sentiment (Sharply) Reverses Downward; Wafer and Cell Prices Come Under Intense Selling Pressure (as we warned)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$37,645/ton = $5.37/kg) – down 0.4% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 8/26/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

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August 21, 2026

Metals & Mining Weekly: Canada Tariff Cut: Psychology Over Physics – Channel Check Points to ~+50kt/Month of Sheet, Not a Flood; the Equity Market Priced a Flood

By Gordon L. Johnson II

CLF -12.8%, NUE -11.8%, STLD -15.2% in three sessions on the Section 232 headline, while HRC futures fell -0.2% and Nucor’s CSP held an 11-month-high $1,170/ton. We reconcile the gap with a proprietary channel check…

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August 20, 2026

Fluence Energy, Inc. (FLNC) — Demand Is Not the Problem. Delivery Is. Downgrade to HOLD (High Risk); PT to $12.89 from $26.00

By Gordon L. Johnson II

A record backlog does not pay anyone until it ships. Fluence has to put 47% of its fiscal year through one quarter, out of two factories that just failed, and our rebuilt model says doing…

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August 19, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 8/19/2026: Cell Prices Surge, but Experts Expect Gains to Soon Moderate

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$37,815/ton = $5.39/kg) – down 0.5% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 8/19/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

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August 18, 2026

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) – Full Self-Delusion: Downgrading the “Autonomous” Narrative to SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The stock is not down 25% this year because the quarter was bad (it was). It is down because the robotaxi finally produced data — and this month’s Cybercab debut in Austin will put that…

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August 17, 2026

Solar Industry Update – Polysilicon “Price Floor” 2.0: We’ve Seen This Movie Before (And We Remember How It Ends)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

A pledge is not a mandate, a meeting is not a floor, and half a million tons of inventory does not read press releases. Reiterate SELL on JKS, CSIQ, and DQ. BOTTOM LINE Last week’s…

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August 17, 2026

Sunrun (RUN) – 2Q26 Recap: A 15% Revenue “Beat” the Market Sold -10.6% — EBITDA Still Doesn’t Cover Interest, FCF Burned Another ~$620M, and the 2026 Guide Was Cut; RUN Remains a “Phenomenal Short”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line: Our favorite solar science project printed a headline “beat” on every line the company would prefer you look at — and the stock fell -10.6% the next day anyway, because the market is…

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August 13, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 8/12/2026: Solar Prices Skyrocket as Chinese Producers Jointly Hikes Amid Government Intervention

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$38,010/ton = $5.41/kg) – up 7.1% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT. Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 8/12/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw…

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August 7, 2026

ShovelCheck: $1bn DC Power Management OEM on Supply Chain Constraints

By Austin Wang

We spoke with divisional leadership at a private OEM targeting $1bn in revenues from RPPs, power whips, and other white-space solutions for data centers. Takeaways below. We spoke with a general manager at a data…

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August 6, 2026

Upgrade Vertiv (VRT) to BUY – Complexity Caters to Colocation, PT to $381

By Austin Wang

Our checks call out Vertiv as uniquely positioned to benefit from continuing acceleration as colocation providers and neo-clouds grow in importance to hyperscalers and frontier labs. We view Vertiv’s product strategy of pursuing a unified…

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August 5, 2026

Metals & Mining Weekly: No Steel to Be Had — Nucor Hikes Again + HRC Prints 4-Yr High of $1,180/st as Sheet Inventories Crater -24% Y/Y to 2.0 Months + Lead Times Stretch to ~9 Weeks + the 50% Tariff Wall Prices Europe OUT + ISM Inflects +2.3pts = is the Squeeze (higher) Just Getting Started?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher vs. Previous Close: Today, Copper +1.53% to $6.43/lb; aluminum -0.08% to $1.59/lb; nickel -2.13% to $8.80/lb; zinc +1.16% to $1.69/lb; lead +2.12% to $1.05/lb; gold +1.85% to $4,153/oz; silver +3.00%…

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August 5, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 8/5/2026: Industry meeting fuels expectations of upstream price increases but prices remain stable with volumes thin

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$35,480/ton = $5.05/kg) – up 8.6% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 8/5/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

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August 4, 2026

Nextpower Inc. (NXT): CFO Fireside Chat Settles the F1Q Debate; F2Q Trough by Design (Not Distress), Zimmermann + Apex Are the Payoff (DCF Work Below); BUY, PT $149/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line Following NXT’s F1Q27 print (7/30) and the July drawdown, we hosted a Fireside Chat with CFO Chuck Boynton and IR. The call resolved the quarter’s three optical controversies — the FQ1-to-FQ2 tariff bridge,…

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August 3, 2026

Powell Industries (POWL, BUY) – F3Q FLASH – 3.0x POWL Book-to-Bill

By Austin Wang

We view a topline miss as non-core (PetChems) as Powell dazzles us with major order flow – 3.0x book-to-bill vs. our 2.2x as a take-or-pay backlog accelerates +71% Y/Y. Expect management to further lay out…

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August 3, 2026

Nextpower Inc. (NXT) – The Company Beat and Raised. The Stock Fell 7%. One of Those Is Wrong; Sell-Off Overdone; BUY.

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Nextpower printed record revenue ($935mn, +8% y/y), a 37% adjusted gross margin, $233mn of adjusted EBITDA, $1.20 of adjusted EPS, a record >$5.5bn backlog, and raised the bottom of every FY27 guidance range — and…

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