April 23, 2025
Tesla Reports 1Q25 Op. Income of $399mn, Missing Cons’ Estimate of $1,139mn by -65%, or a Nautical Mile. Last night, after the close, EV bellwether TSLA reported 1Q25 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $19.3bn/$0.27, missing the Cons…
April 21, 2025
We have Updated our Bottoms-Up Tesla Earnings Driver Model and See a “Big Problem” w/ the Current 1Q25E non-GAAP EPS Consensus Est. In the following update, when considering the impact(s) from: (a) TSLA’s transition from…
April 17, 2025
Is Consensus Making a Grave Error in its Estimate for Tesla’s 2Q25E Global Auto Sales? The best investing opportunities arise when there are material dislocations between what Consensus expects vs. what is most likely to…
April 15, 2025
Are Solar Investors Too Focused on an Overly Simplistic Binary, where “More Trump Tariffs = Bad” vs. “Less Trump Tariffs = Good”, when they Should be Focused on how Trump’s Tariffs will Impact Individual Solar…
April 8, 2025
Update on the “State of the Union” of the US Solar Market. In what follows, we provide a Q&A we had, yesterday, with the largest distributor of solar products in the U.S. Fire-Side Chat with…
April 2, 2025
At the Margin, a Company’s Actual Results vs. Wall Street’s Estimates Determine the Path of the Stock Price. In this note, following recent on-the-ground U.S. solar residential market checks, we seek to answer if the…
March 31, 2025
GLJ Tesla 1Q25E and 2025E Delivery and Production Estimate Update. While we have, previously, generalized TSLA’s 1Q25E deliveries at 360K-370K, in what follows we provide the thought process around the evolution of our TESLA 1Q25E/2025E…
March 26, 2025
Is the Recent U.S. Stock Market Rally on its “Last Leg”? With U.S. tax season nearing, meaning a material amount of liquidity is set to exit the U.S. market, combined with the share buyback blackout…
March 24, 2025
Data out of California Last Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 1Q25E Earnings Season for the MLPE U.S. Inverter Bellwethers (i.e., SEDG + ENPH). In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from: (a) the California Solar Initiative…
March 12, 2025
Cameco Recently Reported Better Than Expected 4Q24A Results. A few weeks back, Cameco reported adjusted 4Q24 EPS of $0.36, besting Consensus’ $0.33. More important, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of C$524mn (+70% QoQ and +56%…
March 5, 2025
California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from December’s CSI data dump, and…
February 27, 2025
Cleveland Cliffs Reports 4Q24 Results that (Largely) Disappoint. This week, CLF reported 4Q24 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $4.3bn/-$0.68 vs. Cons’ $4.3bn/-$0.69 ests. (GLJe $4.4bn/-$0.53). The company also posted lackluster free-cash-flow (“FCF”) of -$677mn, missing the Street’s…
February 18, 2025
China Plans Mid-Year Change to the Way it Compensates Renewable Energy. Beginning June 1st, China plans to end its fixed pricing mechanism for renewable energy and require electricity generated from such sources to be sold…
February 12, 2025
Is U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent About to Unleash the U.S. Liquidity Kraken? In general, U.S. liquidity defined as: Δ in Fed Bal. Sheet – Δ in Treasury General Account (“TGA”) – Δ in Reverse…
February 12, 2025
Tesla’s Week 6 China Sales Update Yesterday = No Bueno; U.S./European Sales Show (very) Troubling Signs; and June Unsupervised Robotaxi Rollout Appears Set to Severely Disappoint. In this note, we update TSLA’s global sales trend…