Our Research
September 28, 2023
GLJ Solar Weekly – US Solar Installations are Collapsing + US Solar Cell/Module Imports are Surging = Pending “Nightmare Before Christmas” for US Cell & Module Prices
Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 4-5), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…
September 25, 2023
GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Recently Updated California Solar Initiative Data Dump Show SolarEdge is in “Big” Trouble, Fireside Chat w/ US Solar Distribution Bellwether (is the “Solar Bear Market” about to Die?), & Does Aug. German Solar Installation Data Suggest Q3 Will “Frighten” the Solar Bulls?
Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…
September 18, 2023
Tesla Can No Longer Grow at its 50%/yr “Mirage” Without a Much Cheaper Car it Won’t Have for Yrs in a Best-Case Scenario & Q3 Results Shaping up to be Big Disappointment
Tesla Has a Q3 Demand and Earnings Problem that Many Seem to Want to Ignore (for now). In this note, in addition to updating our bottom-up earnings driver model for TSLA’s 2023E and 2024E-25E earnings…
September 12, 2023
Is the Uranium Market in the Beginning Innings of a Second “EV-Like” Melt-Up, which is Misunderstood by the Masses?
What’s Up? In this note we update our view on both Cameco Corp., and the broader Uranium space, where the most significant takeaways are: (a) a revamp of our global supply/demand model framework, (b) our…
September 12, 2023
GLJ Solar Weekly – Update From Solar Power International Conference in Vegas: Day 1
Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…
August 30, 2023
GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chats w/ Large U.S. Distributor & Leading Chinese Inverter Supplier Shed Light on What to Expect Headed into Q3 Earnings for SEDG/ENPH/JKS/CSIQ/RUN/etc.
Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…
August 30, 2023
GLJ Macro Weekly – With Home Sales Plunging + Cash Buyers Disappearing + Supply Rising = Is It Time to “Fade” the Homebuilder Stocks, Which Have Materially Outperformed YTD?
Is the US Housing Market Facing a Serious Problem N-Term (When Looking at the Host of Recently Available Data)? The SPDR S&P Homebuilder Index (XHB; NC) is up +36.1% YTD, significantly outperforming even the S&P…
August 22, 2023
GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative June Data Dump Shows Collapse in Battery Attach Rates Balanced by “Explosion” in Installs; Yet, Subdued Q3 Guide from CSIQ/SEDG/ENPH Suggests July Data Could Disappoint
Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…
August 14, 2023
US Steel Rejects Cleveland Cliffs’ Takeover Offer After the Latter Refuses to Engage in the Necessary/Customary Processes to Assess Valuation & Regulatory Issues – GLJ’s Take
Cliff’s Offers to Pay a 42% Premium for US Steel, Effectively Crediting the Company for its “Best for All®” Strategy Before it’s Been Fully Executed (a huge plus for US Steel’s shareholders). Last night, we…
August 11, 2023
GLJ Macro Weekly – With CPI Accelerating YoY, Core Services CPI Accelerating MoM, & Durable Goods Prices Normalizing at “Scary” High Levels, is the “Disinflation” Bull Thesis in Trouble?
Our Take on the July CPI Report. In this note, we provide our take on the July CPI report. That is, with Consensus now pricing in the first rate hike as soon as the 3/20/24…
August 10, 2023
GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat(s) w/ Head of Sales for a Large U.S. Solar Parts Distributor (i.e., are ENPH and SEDG Facing an “Existential” Event?) and a Large Chinese Solar Investment Fund Based in Hong Kong (i.e., is the EU Solar Market Faring Worse than U.S. Investors Realize?)
Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…
August 8, 2023
Our Take on Tesla Announcing its 4th CFO in 6 Years (or 3rd in 4 Years), its New CFO (who was the Top Accountant at SolarCity when the Company was Credibly Alleged to have Engaged in Tax Fraud), & This Week’s China Sales
Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla’s CFO of Four Years, Announces his Immediate/Unexpected Departure Effective 8/4/23. Yesterday we learned that TSLA’s “young” 39yr old CFO decided to leave the company, unexpectedly (given, as recently as May, according to…
August 7, 2023
GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat w/ Head of Sales for Large Global Inverter Player & Our Take on the Sudden Departure of Sunrun’s Chief Accounting Officer Following Earnings
Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 7-8), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in…
August 2, 2023
GLJ Macro Weekly – Have You Heard of the Fed’s ‘Other Credit Extensions’ (“OCE”) Emergency Lending Facility & is It Possible the Repayment of OCE Loans this Year Will Create “Chaos” in US Stock Market(s)?
In this Note, We Discuss What Could Prove to be a Mar. 2020-Like Black Swan in 3Q23/4Q23. Is there a black swan coming this year that’s currently flying under the radar? In this note, we…
July 27, 2023
Is Sunnova Copying the Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model of Borrowing Short at a Higher Rate than it’s Lending Long, Meaning “Catastrophe” is Only a Matter of Time?
The Fundamental Question Sunnova Investors Must Ask the Company/Themselves is Simple: “Why Does it Appear Sunnova is Copying the Failed Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model”. While we get into NOVA’s dismal results in the…