Our Research


February 4, 2025

Enphase Q4 Preview – We See a -25.9% Adj.-EPS Miss on Deck & 48.1% Gross Margin vs. Consensus’ Est. of 48.6%

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Enphase is Set to Report 4Q24E Earnings After the Close Today. In this note, after checks done, primarily in Europe this week, we have updated our bottoms-up earnings driver model for Module-Level-Performance-Electronics (“MLPE”) bellwether Enphase….

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January 28, 2025

Tesla Q4 Preview – We See a -8.8% Adj.-EPS Miss on Deck & a 14.0% Automotive Gross Margin (Excl. Credit Sales) vs. Consensus’ Est. of 16.2%

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Will Earnings be a Positive Catalyst (Similar to 3Q24) or a Negative Catalyst (Similar to 2Q24)? Due to: (a) a record mix of negative-gross-margin Chinese car sales in Q4 (i.e., 39.7% vs. 39.6% in Q3,…

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January 23, 2025

“Big Trouble in Little China” – Our 2025E Jinko Solar Price Objective Moves Lower to $10.95/shr (-45% Downside) on “Universal” Trump Tariff Risk + Structural 2025E Oversupply

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Jinko Solar Still a Good Short Following its -33.9% Trailing-Twelve-Month Fall (vs. the S&P 500 Rising +25.1% Over the Same Timeframe)? Interestingly, we remind our readers that JKS is guiding its U.S. shipment mix…

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January 16, 2025

After Falling -72.8% Over the Past 2yrs (vs. +49.1% for the S&P 500 Over the Same Timeframe), is Canadian Solar Still a Good Short Play?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Does Canadian Solar Still Represent a “Solid Short Play” Following its Collapse Over the Past 2yrs? In this note, we analyze: (1) the capacity for China’s top 9 solar cell makers in 2025E vs. 2025E…

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January 14, 2025

Does the Path for US Treasury Rates (as well as the Pending Trump Administration) Suggest Solar Stocks Could See an Incremental -80.2% Downside (yes, you heard that right)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is It True that if One Can Accurately Predict the Path of US Treasury Yields, One Can Also, With Great Veracity, Predict What US Solar Stocks Will Do? As outlined in Ex. 1 below, since…

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January 12, 2025

GLJ Macro Weekly – Does the Drain of the Overnight Reverse Repo (“RRP”) Facility – Combined w/ Treasury Secretary Elect S. Bessent’s Hawkish Stance on T-Bills – Point to Problems Ahead for U.S. Equities in 1H25E?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

“It’s Liquidity that Moves Markets” – Stanley Druckenmiller. In this note, we look to address the n-term outlook for U.S. equities when considering: (a) the Overnight Reverse Repo (“RRP”) facility, or money created during the…

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January 7, 2025

Is the “Trump Put” About to Send U.S. Steel Stocks Higher? Upgrade CLF to BUY on Pending Trump Tariffs + Positive Seasonality; PT to $14.27/shr, or +58% Upside from Yesterday’s Close

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is there a “Trump Put” Play for U.S. Steel Stocks in the Offing? While we believe (strongly) the U.S. economy is in much worse shape than many pundits acknowledge (detailed below), with Trump set to…

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January 3, 2025

Does the Collapse in Tesla’s 4Q24 Production Portend Global Demand has Peaked, Suggesting “Stormy Weather in Longville” For Tesla Bulls in 2025E?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Has Stated They Have a Daily View into Real-Time Demand, Unlike Most Other OEMs with Dealerships. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, TSLA has boasted, previously, that because they get real-time data, on a…

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December 27, 2024

How do the Betting Markets’ & Wall Street’s 4Q24E Tesla Delivery Ests. Match Up to the Reality “On the Ground”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Visited a Large Tesla Dealership in Charlotte, NC Yesterday. With weekly auto insurance data available for the Chinese auto market, and daily/monthly insurance registration data available in Europe, the key unknown each quarter as…

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December 23, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Nov. California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” + Updated OTR SEDG/TSLA/ENPH Survey Data + Nov. European PPA Volumes = “Coal” in SolarEdge’s/Enphase’s 4Q24E Earnings Christmas Stockings?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Data out of California Last Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 4Q24E Earnings Season for the MLPE U.S. Inverter Bellwethers (i.e., SEDG + ENPH). In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from: (a) the California…

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December 17, 2024

Does the Goldman Sachs Double Upgrade of SolarEdge Today Offer up an “Early Christmas Gift to the Solar Grinches” Looking to Ring the Whoville X-Mas Register?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Today, Goldman Sachs Double Upgraded SolarEdge from SELL to BUY. Goldman Sachs double upgraded SEDG from SELL to BUY with a $19/shr 12-month forward price objective, which compares to our year-end 2025E price target of…

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December 17, 2024

Is the Recent Move in Tesla’s Stock the Result of a Massive Options Gamma Squeeze, Suggesting Wall Street’s New-Found Fundamental Optimism is Unfounded (and is an end to the rally in [near] sight)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s Stock has Been on a Tear; is this Indicative of Better Fundamentals, or Simply Options Market Activity/Manipulation? Since 10/23/24, or when TSLA reported slightly better-than-expected 3Q24 results, the stock has surged +116.7% higher; this…

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December 12, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for Oct. ’24 Provides Insights Into U.S. Solar Market & SolarEdge/Enphase

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Data out of California This Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 4Q24E Earnings Season for the MLPE US Inverter Suppliers. In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from the California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Oct….

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December 11, 2024

Sources Close to President Biden Suggest He’ll Block Nippon’s Bid to Acquire US Steel; Our PT Edges Lower to $37.67/shr; Maintain BUY

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Biden Throws “Curveball” into Nippon’s Planned Acquisition of US Steel. Yesterday, before the close, Bloomberg reported that people familiar with matter believe President Biden will block Nippon’s planned $14.1bn acquisition of US Steel (X; BUY)…

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December 9, 2024

Is Wall Street Underestimating the Likelihood President Biden Steps in and Approves Nippon’s Pending Acquisition of U.S. Steel? We Raise our 2024E PT to $45.88/shr Following Recent Checks; BUY

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is U.S. Steel a “Diamond in the Rough” Right in Plain Sight? In this note, following discussions with government contacts and industry experts, as well as our observations on a number of key (recent) events,…

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