Our Research


August 7, 2026

ShovelCheck: $1bn DC Power Management OEM on Supply Chain Constraints

By Austin Wang

We spoke with divisional leadership at a private OEM targeting $1bn in revenues from RPPs, power whips, and other white-space solutions for data centers. Takeaways below. We spoke with a general manager at a data…

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August 6, 2026

Upgrade Vertiv (VRT) to BUY – Complexity Caters to Colocation, PT to $381

By Austin Wang

Our checks call out Vertiv as uniquely positioned to benefit from continuing acceleration as colocation providers and neo-clouds grow in importance to hyperscalers and frontier labs. We view Vertiv’s product strategy of pursuing a unified…

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August 5, 2026

Metals & Mining Weekly: No Steel to Be Had — Nucor Hikes Again + HRC Prints 4-Yr High of $1,180/st as Sheet Inventories Crater -24% Y/Y to 2.0 Months + Lead Times Stretch to ~9 Weeks + the 50% Tariff Wall Prices Europe OUT + ISM Inflects +2.3pts = is the Squeeze (higher) Just Getting Started?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher vs. Previous Close: Today, Copper +1.53% to $6.43/lb; aluminum -0.08% to $1.59/lb; nickel -2.13% to $8.80/lb; zinc +1.16% to $1.69/lb; lead +2.12% to $1.05/lb; gold +1.85% to $4,153/oz; silver +3.00%…

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August 5, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 8/5/2026: Industry meeting fuels expectations of upstream price increases but prices remain stable with volumes thin

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$35,480/ton = $5.05/kg) – up 8.6% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 8/5/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

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August 4, 2026

Nextpower Inc. (NXT): CFO Fireside Chat Settles the F1Q Debate; F2Q Trough by Design (Not Distress), Zimmermann + Apex Are the Payoff (DCF Work Below); BUY, PT $149/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line Following NXT’s F1Q27 print (7/30) and the July drawdown, we hosted a Fireside Chat with CFO Chuck Boynton and IR. The call resolved the quarter’s three optical controversies — the FQ1-to-FQ2 tariff bridge,…

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August 3, 2026

Powell Industries (POWL, BUY) – F3Q FLASH – 3.0x POWL Book-to-Bill

By Austin Wang

We view a topline miss as non-core (PetChems) as Powell dazzles us with major order flow – 3.0x book-to-bill vs. our 2.2x as a take-or-pay backlog accelerates +71% Y/Y. Expect management to further lay out…

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August 3, 2026

Nextpower Inc. (NXT) – The Company Beat and Raised. The Stock Fell 7%. One of Those Is Wrong; Sell-Off Overdone; BUY.

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Nextpower printed record revenue ($935mn, +8% y/y), a 37% adjusted gross margin, $233mn of adjusted EBITDA, $1.20 of adjusted EPS, a record >$5.5bn backlog, and raised the bottom of every FY27 guidance range — and…

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July 31, 2026

First Solar Inc. (FSLR) – Q2 Review: A Clean Beat Even After Stripping the $89mn Tariff Refund; Marking Our 5/27 Upgrade to Market; 232 Catalyst Still Locked/Loaded; Reiterate BUY; $315 Price Target Under Review

By Gordon L. Johnson II

On our adjusted numbers — which adjd the $89mn of one-time IEEPA tariff refunds back out of gross profit — FSLR beat consensus on every profit line ($3.10 adj. EPS vs. $2.83; $509mn adj. EBITDA…

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July 31, 2026

nVent Electric (NVT, BUY) – 2Q FLASH – Beat & Raise…

By Austin Wang

NVT’s 2Q update surprised us with a +24% 2Q sales beat ($1.5bn vs. our $1.2bn) with a +11% FY sales organic topline raise. Adjusted EBIT margins showed leverage on elevated volumes 21.9% vs. our 18.9%….

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July 30, 2026

ShovelCheck: $2bn Private DC OEM on UPS, Transformer Lead Times Longer Still as the Acceleration Continues

By Austin Wang

We spoke with a leading data center OEM as they ramp e-House capacity on lead times being quoted by suppliers. Transformer, UPS lead times up +89%, +67% Y/Y Engineered components continue to see demand well…

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July 30, 2026

US Rates Strategy | FOMC Review — The Referee Leaves the Field: Warsh Ends Two Decades of Administered/Managed Yields

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fed held yesterday while three members dissented for a hike — and the Chair spent his press conference explaining why he didn’t need one: the bond market’s intermeeting selloff, among the largest in two…

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July 29, 2026

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) – 2Q26 Review: A Refund Check Is Not a Business Model

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Ex the one-time tariff windfall, GAAP earnings flipped to a loss; the “beat” was a check from U.S. Customs. We’d fade it. Reiterate SELL. Bottom Line Enphase reported 2Q26 revenue of $291.9mn (vs. $292.1mn street),…

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July 29, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 7/29/2026: Upstream prices soften again as the market awaits signals from an upcoming regulatory meeting

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$32,680/ton = $4.64/kg) – down 4.6% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 7/29/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

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July 28, 2026

Comfort Systems (FIX, BUY) – 2Q Review – Incremental Margins Demand Incremental Multiple – PT to $2265

By Austin Wang

We look past an ungrateful tape to an incredible path of revision for 2027 and 2028 as we digest multiple incremental positives out of FIX’s 2Q update. PT to $2,265 as +10pt topline raise, modular…

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July 28, 2026

Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) 2Q26 Preview: The Channel Doesn’t Lie – Shipments Stuffed, China Dumping, and a Folding Margin Umbrella; Reiterate SELL, PT to $24.47 (from $21.70)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line Heading into Enphase’s 2Q26 print, we find ourselves in the increasingly lonely position of being below consensus on essentially every line that matters. We are at $279mn in revenue (Street: $292mn) — a…

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