– Sectors – First Solar Inc. (FSLR)

January 9, 2023

Are First Solar’s “Iron-Clad” Long-Term Contracts at Risk of Cancellation? Fireside Chat w/ a Top-3 US Solar Distribution Bellwether Provides Insights

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Today, we Had the Chance to Catch up with the Head of US Sales from a Top-Three U.S. Solar Distribution Behemoth (details below). Early this morning, for the first time this new year, we had…

First Solar Inc. (FSLR)

First Solar is the Best House on a (Very) Bad Block; Upgrade to HOLD on “Strong Story” we Cannot Yet Disprove

Are First Solar’s “Iron-Clad” Long-Term Contracts at Risk of Cancellation? Fireside Chat w/ a Top-3 US Solar Distribution Bellwether Provides Insights

As Fundamentals Disappoint the Mkt’s ’23 Goldilocks Scenario we Expect Fireworks; Downgrade to SELL

Best House on Bad Block, but Very Rich Valuation; Maintain BUY, But Cautiously Given Solar Euphoria

With Biden’s Bias Towards “Made in the US” PV Panels + FSLR’s Recent L-T Deal = Our PT Jumps Higher

Forced Labor Issue in China Just Got Real for the Global PV Sector & FSLR Stands to Benefit “Bigly”

Despite Rising Poly-Si Price, FSLR’s ’22 Contract ASP Collapse + Higher Cost-W = Margin Risk; SELL

FSLR is Looking at a Ticking ASP “Time Bomb” Set to Erupt 2-6-22; Should it Go Off, Look Out Below!

Applying a “Best Case” Scenario, Excl. Cash, First Solar’s Value Appears to be $67.60-Shr; SELL

Was FSLR’s Big 3Q20 “Beat” Due to One-Time Project Sales & Did Module Cost-Shipments Actually Miss?

300mw of 3rd Party Bookings is a Problem & 25c-W Normalized 4Q S6 Cost = Acute ‘21-‘22 Margin Risk

Move to SELL on Increasing Margin Concerns (Plummeting US Prices) & Excessive Valuation

We Find a Lot of Value in FSLR’s Businesses, but Not as Much as the 2-Mo Rally in the Stock Suggests

FSLR Has Failed to Execute on Its Cost Targets; w- its Cash Balance “Buckling”, Is it Time to Worry?

The Best House on a Bad Block, but Not Without Its Own “Eviction Risk”