Sunrun Inc. (RUN)


November 2, 2023

Do Sunrun’s Q3 Results Suggest, Similar to the Mortgage Lenders in 2Q08, the “Solar Lenders” Could be Entering the “Beginning Innings” of the End-Game?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, How did Sunrun Fare in Q3? In this note, we provide our quick thoughts on Sunrun’s 3Q23 results reported last night, where the company: (a) saw -$804.7mn in free-cash-flow burn, despite cutting its staff…

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June 30, 2023

Conn. Utility Eversource Cuts Electricity Prices -43% Effective 7/1 as SoCal Edison/PG&E See their Nat Gas Costs Fall -74%/-63% 2H22-to-6/28; Are the Risks to RUN’s/NOVA’s/SPWR’s “Subscriber Values” Grossly Misunderstood?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We See Outsized Risk to the “Cockamamie” 20yr DCF Calculations, Known to Many as “Net Subscriber Value”, Sunrun, Sunnova, & Sunpower (as well as our Sell-Side Peers) Use to Justify Their Valuations. First off, why…

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June 8, 2023

Did You Know Sunrun’s Head of Project Finance Left the Company (Prior to the Recent Unexpected Departure of the Company’s Founder)? Also, Below, we Detail a Fireside Chat we had Today w/ an Industry Veteran That Suggests Bulls May be Underestimating NEM 3.0 Impact on California

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Sunrun Lose its Head of Project Financing Unbeknownst to Many (Followed by the Recent Sudden Departure of its co-Founder)? In this note, we look to address that question, while also providing a Q&A we…

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April 27, 2023

Is There an “Existential Threat” to Owning the Solar Resi Names (RUN/NOVA/SPWR) & is it Being Ignored, Similar to the Fate that Befell SunEdison Shortly Before Bankruptcy?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Investors Currently Unaware/Ignoring the “Existential” Risks Facing the Subprime Solar Lending Industry? As detailed in Ex. 1 below, according to bond rating agency Kroll, default rates on solar loans are currently on the upswing….

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March 21, 2023

We Have Confirmed that a Large Publicly-Traded Solar Resi Rooftop Player Who Has a $575mn Warehouse Line w/ Credit Suisse Has Not Transferred this Facility to Apollo; Uh Oh!

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, Is Apollo the Current Administration Agent/Lender for RUN’s $1.8bn Warehouse Facility? While many – including two heads of structured product groups at Tier 1 investment banks – tell us they “believe” Apollo did indeed…

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March 14, 2023

Fireside Chat with Executive Director of Bulge-Bracket Solar ABS Desk Sheds Light on the Many “Hidden” Risks Facing the Resi Rooftop Solar Vendors (Q&A Below)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are the Risks to Sunrun and Other ABS Solar Issuers Much More “Pronounced” Than Investors Currently Appreciate? Today, we had the opportunity to chat with the head of a major investment bank’s solar ABS desk….

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February 27, 2023

We Believe we May Know the Reason Sunrun’s Co-Founder is “Suddenly” Stepping Down – i.e., he does not want to be associated w/ this “thing” when it comes tumbling down (i.e., Sunrun is guiding a 1% change in discount rate = a 40% fall in its subscriber value)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

WHAT’S UP? So… Sunrun reports the value it sells systems in the open market as “purchase customer ASP”, and the value it shows the IRS for tax collection purposes (where it uses a cockamamie 25-30yr…

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February 23, 2023

Cash-Incinerating “Dark Science Project” Sunrun is Destroying Capital at an Amazing Clip

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sunrun Sees Record Free-Cash-Flow Burn in Q4 and (Again) Doesn’t Earn its Cost of Capital. Yesterday, subprime solar roofing bellwether RUN reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $609M/-$70M/$0.29 vs. Cons’ $585.3M/-$39.8M/-$0.26. Furthermore, free-cash-flow came in at a…

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January 5, 2023

It Appears Sunrun Lost its Largest Banker (Credit Suisse) & is Replacing Funding at a ~3% Cost w/ Funding at a ~7% Cost; This is Nothing Short of a Disaster

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Based on Details from Sunrun’s $835M Funding Announced Today, we Believe the Residential Solar Space is Looking at “Big Problems” in 2023E. Today, we learned that RUN closed a $835M funding round, consisting of a…

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January 4, 2023

Did Sunrun Receive an Adverse Outcome Notification Regarding its Ongoing IRS Audit, Implying Material Going Concern Risk?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sunrun has Been Under IRS Audit Since 2018, Which is Still Ongoing. By way of background, as per page 32 of RUN’s 3Q22 10-Q filing (Ex. 1), we remind our readers that as of 11/2/22…

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