February 29, 2024
The Cost of Sunrun’s Recent $475mn Convertible Bond Issue May Surprise You (link). As a reminder to those who don’t have a doctorate in “bond math”, when an investor buys a convertible bond they are…
February 1, 2024
We Have Constructed a Model Based on a 7.5kW and 3.5kW Residential Rooftop Solar Home System Financed via a Loan in Greenwich, CT, Using NREL’s PVWatts Calculator; Our Findings were Rather Surprising Given the US…
December 19, 2023
Is the Sell-Side Right in Their Recent Claims that the Cost-of-Capital for the Solar Residential Rooftop “Mortgage Companies” (i.e., RUN/NOVA/SPWR/etc.) Has Dropped Given US Treasury Yields are Down, or Does Their Analysis Ignore the Recent…
November 2, 2023
So, How did Sunrun Fare in Q3? In this note, we provide our quick thoughts on Sunrun’s 3Q23 results reported last night, where the company: (a) saw -$804.7mn in free-cash-flow burn, despite cutting its staff…
June 30, 2023
We See Outsized Risk to the “Cockamamie” 20yr DCF Calculations, Known to Many as “Net Subscriber Value”, Sunrun, Sunnova, & Sunpower (as well as our Sell-Side Peers) Use to Justify Their Valuations. First off, why…
June 8, 2023
Did Sunrun Lose its Head of Project Financing Unbeknownst to Many (Followed by the Recent Sudden Departure of its co-Founder)? In this note, we look to address that question, while also providing a Q&A we…
April 27, 2023
Are Investors Currently Unaware/Ignoring the “Existential” Risks Facing the Subprime Solar Lending Industry? As detailed in Ex. 1 below, according to bond rating agency Kroll, default rates on solar loans are currently on the upswing….
March 21, 2023
So, Is Apollo the Current Administration Agent/Lender for RUN’s $1.8bn Warehouse Facility? While many – including two heads of structured product groups at Tier 1 investment banks – tell us they “believe” Apollo did indeed…
March 14, 2023
Are the Risks to Sunrun and Other ABS Solar Issuers Much More “Pronounced” Than Investors Currently Appreciate? Today, we had the opportunity to chat with the head of a major investment bank’s solar ABS desk….
February 27, 2023
WHAT’S UP? So… Sunrun reports the value it sells systems in the open market as “purchase customer ASP”, and the value it shows the IRS for tax collection purposes (where it uses a cockamamie 25-30yr…
February 23, 2023
Sunrun Sees Record Free-Cash-Flow Burn in Q4 and (Again) Doesn’t Earn its Cost of Capital. Yesterday, subprime solar roofing bellwether RUN reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $609M/-$70M/$0.29 vs. Cons’ $585.3M/-$39.8M/-$0.26. Furthermore, free-cash-flow came in at a…
January 5, 2023
Based on Details from Sunrun’s $835M Funding Announced Today, we Believe the Residential Solar Space is Looking at “Big Problems” in 2023E. Today, we learned that RUN closed a $835M funding round, consisting of a…
January 4, 2023
Sunrun has Been Under IRS Audit Since 2018, Which is Still Ongoing. By way of background, as per page 32 of RUN’s 3Q22 10-Q filing (Ex. 1), we remind our readers that as of 11/2/22…