April 23, 2026
Bottom Line Tesla reported 1Q26 revenue of $22.387B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41, optically a modest beat. This “beat”, however, was entirely manufactured. Stripping out management-disclosed one-time items — i.e., $230M of auto warranty true-downs…
April 21, 2026
Executive Summary Tesla reports 1Q26 results tomorrow after the close, and in our view, this print is just as much about the headline numbers as it is the forward commentary. The consensus calls for 1Q26…
April 8, 2026
Executive Summary This note presents evidence that Tesla’s (TSLA) share price has been significantly and systematically elevated over the past six years by an options market structure uniquely dependent on aggressive retail call buying —…
April 2, 2026
Record Inventory Build, Energy Storage Collapse, and a Robotaxi Program Losing Its Engineering Leadership Ahead of Purported Launch Reinforce Our Sell Thesis GLJ Research View GLJ Research View Tesla’s 1Q26 delivery report is materially worse…
March 30, 2026
Investment Conclusion We reiterate our Sell rating and $24.86 12-month price target on Tesla (TSLA). Our final Q1 2026 delivery model — incorporating GLJ’s proprietary VIN-based US production channel check, CPCA/CNEVPost China production and delivery…
March 12, 2026
Austin FSD Rollout Failure: Fleet Collapse, Crash Data & Management Exodus EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This update incorporates three new data layers since our June 5th, 2025 initial Austin note: (1) NHTSA-sourced crash rate analysis confirming Tesla’s…
February 24, 2026
Investment Thesis We reiterate our SELL rating and $25.28 price target on TSLA. In this note, we specifically address the question Wall Street’s TSLA bulls refuse to ask honestly: what if Optimus actually works? Our answer, after an…
February 19, 2026
Thesis: The Emperor Has No Clothes — And the Market Doesn’t Care (Yet) We are reiterating our SELL rating on Tesla with a year-end 2026 price target of $25.28/share. At ~$410, Tesla trades at 382x…
January 29, 2026
Bottom line: TSLA printed Q4 rev/GAAP EPS of $24.9bn/$0.24 vs. Consensus at $25.1bn/$0.34 (GLJe $24.1bn/$0.24). The headline “beat,” however, came courtesy of the accounting add-backs. Stock-based compensation surged a record $223mn q/q – the highest…
January 8, 2026
What Changed? The impact to Tesla’s GAAP-EPS, quarterly, from its digital asset holdings is calculated as: ([Bitcoin Price on Last Day of Current Quarter – Bitcoin Price on Last Day of Prior Quarter] * Units…
January 7, 2026
Bottom line: Adjusting Q4 for reality rather than narrative – 418K in Q4 deliveries, a Q4 mix-shift toward heavily discounted Model Ys outside of China (with prices drifting from $39.9k in the U.S. to as…
December 10, 2025
Did Piper Sandler Make a Wild Claim Based on Cherry-Picked Data? Tesla’s share price outperformed in yesterday’s trading session, which many attributed to a Wall Street analyst report from Piper Sandler, which concluded, based on…
November 25, 2025
Just How ‘Good’ – or More Accurately, How Bad – Are Tesla’s Auto Sales Trending With Nearly Two Months of Q4 Now in the Rearview? When we strip out the optimism, the spin, and the…
October 23, 2025
Tesla’s Q3 Results Disappoint; Musk’s Promised Future Slips Further into Fantasy. TSLA reported Q3 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $28.095bn/$0.50 vs. Cons $26.365bn/$0.54 (GLJe $27.8bn/$0.59), or a bottom-line miss despite a sizeable top-line beat. The problem? Lower…
October 22, 2025
Consensus Estimates Appear Too Low Ahead of Tesla’s Q3 Print (after the close today). Consensus appears too conservative heading into Tesla’s Q3 release. As shown in Ex. 1, we’ve revised our 3Q25E automotive revenue higher,…