July 23, 2026
Bottom Line The margin call, made in advance. Our preview carried 17.0% gross margin versus the Street’s 19.4% — 240bp below consensus, the widest gap anywhere in our model — built by stripping ~$710mn of…
July 20, 2026
Bottom Line Tesla reports 2Q26 results on Wednesday, July 22, after the close (call: 5:30pm ET). The bulls arrive with a genuinely large number: 480,126 deliveries, +25% yoy and +34% qoq — the best second…
July 14, 2026
The new reason to own Tesla is that SpaceX buys it — soon. This note is about the word “soon.” Every mechanical step of this deal — the committee, the filing, the vote, Beijing, the…
July 9, 2026
The Punchline. We like arithmetic. Here is some: Tesla has self-certified 102 vehicles to the Texas DMV as SAE Level 4 self-driving cars, according to robotaxitracker.com. Yet, tracking data (Robotaxi Tracker) shows just 17 of…
June 12, 2026
Investment Conclusion With roughly three weeks of the quarter still to run, our model points to 2Q26E global deliveries of 426,017 units — up 19.0% sequentially from 1Q26’s 358,023 and up 10.9% against the 384,122…
April 23, 2026
Bottom Line Tesla reported 1Q26 revenue of $22.387B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41, optically a modest beat. This “beat”, however, was entirely manufactured. Stripping out management-disclosed one-time items — i.e., $230M of auto warranty true-downs…
April 21, 2026
Executive Summary Tesla reports 1Q26 results tomorrow after the close, and in our view, this print is just as much about the headline numbers as it is the forward commentary. The consensus calls for 1Q26…
April 8, 2026
Executive Summary This note presents evidence that Tesla’s (TSLA) share price has been significantly and systematically elevated over the past six years by an options market structure uniquely dependent on aggressive retail call buying —…
April 2, 2026
Record Inventory Build, Energy Storage Collapse, and a Robotaxi Program Losing Its Engineering Leadership Ahead of Purported Launch Reinforce Our Sell Thesis GLJ Research View GLJ Research View Tesla’s 1Q26 delivery report is materially worse…
March 30, 2026
Investment Conclusion We reiterate our Sell rating and $24.86 12-month price target on Tesla (TSLA). Our final Q1 2026 delivery model — incorporating GLJ’s proprietary VIN-based US production channel check, CPCA/CNEVPost China production and delivery…
March 12, 2026
Austin FSD Rollout Failure: Fleet Collapse, Crash Data & Management Exodus EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This update incorporates three new data layers since our June 5th, 2025 initial Austin note: (1) NHTSA-sourced crash rate analysis confirming Tesla’s…
February 24, 2026
Investment Thesis We reiterate our SELL rating and $25.28 price target on TSLA. In this note, we specifically address the question Wall Street’s TSLA bulls refuse to ask honestly: what if Optimus actually works? Our answer, after an…
February 19, 2026
Thesis: The Emperor Has No Clothes — And the Market Doesn’t Care (Yet) We are reiterating our SELL rating on Tesla with a year-end 2026 price target of $25.28/share. At ~$410, Tesla trades at 382x…
January 29, 2026
Bottom line: TSLA printed Q4 rev/GAAP EPS of $24.9bn/$0.24 vs. Consensus at $25.1bn/$0.34 (GLJe $24.1bn/$0.24). The headline “beat,” however, came courtesy of the accounting add-backs. Stock-based compensation surged a record $223mn q/q – the highest…
January 8, 2026
What Changed? The impact to Tesla’s GAAP-EPS, quarterly, from its digital asset holdings is calculated as: ([Bitcoin Price on Last Day of Current Quarter – Bitcoin Price on Last Day of Prior Quarter] * Units…