Renewable Energy


May 13, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 5/13/2026

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Please see bottom of report for important disclosures Gordon L. Johnson/GLJ Research LLC ————————————————– Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$37,190/ton = $5.25/kg) – down 4.8% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT….

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April 29, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 4/29/2026

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$38,585/ton = $5.42/kg) – down 14.8% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT. Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 4/29/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw…

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April 23, 2026

Mar. 2026 Chinese Solar Installs Collapse 56% YoY; Recent Polysilicon Futures Price Rip = Head Fake — Reiterate SELL on JKS, CSIQ, DQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line China’s National Energy Administration (“NEA”) this morning released Q1 2026 solar PV installation data confirming what we have warned about for the past two quarters: the post-“531” pricing-reform air pocket is here, and…

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April 16, 2026

US Petroleum Inventory Alert: The U.S. “Energy Independence” Narrative Is Misleading — Crude Drawdown Risk Is Real and Imminent; Higher Energy Prices Will Drive Rates Higher, Threatening Rate-Sensitive Solar Stocks

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Conclusion The US is Not “Energy Independent”. The widely-promoted narrative that the United States is energy-independent and capable of replacing Persian Gulf crude flows is analytically incorrect and, in our view, is creating dangerous…

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April 2, 2026

Flash Note: Residential Solar — Channel Check Highlights Installer Disruption Risk (TSLA’s -40% 1Q26 Storage Seg. Volume Miss Confirms GLJ’s CSI Data Published this Morning)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line A channel check this morning between PV Magazine‘s head editor and GLJ Research, LLC surfaces two converging threats to incumbent residential solar installers: (1) rising interest rates are killing the high-pressure sales model, and (2) DIY “backyard solar” formats…

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April 2, 2026

California Solar Initiative — February 2026 Data Update

By Gordon L. Johnson II

investment Conclusion February 2026 CSI data paints a bearish picture across virtually every metric we track — and introduces a new, critical data point that fundamentally alters the storage investment narrative: Tesla’s CA residential storage…

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March 26, 2026

Solar Sector Channel Check: Fireside Chat w/ Krannich Solar CSO Confirms Demand Stagnation, ITC Behavioral Dislocation, and Module Cost Inflation; What’s it Mean for our Solar SELL Ratings (i.e., JKS, CSIQ, ENPH, SEDG, RUN, & DQ)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis GLJ Research conducted a structured expert channel check with a Chief Sales Officer at Krannich Solar — one of the largest solar equipment distributors in North America — to stress-test our below-consensus bear…

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March 23, 2026

POLYSILICON FUTURES FLASH: Anti-Involution Premium Fully Collapsed — Spot Futures Price ¥35,435/MT (-41.1% From December Peak); Reiterate SELL on JKS, CSIQ, DQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis (A.) The Event — The Anti-Involution Premium Is Gone. As of today’s close (March 23, 2026), the dominant polysilicon futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange settled at ¥35,435/MT, down ¥3,130 (-8.12%) on…

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March 19, 2026

POLYSILICON FUTURES FLASH NOTE: The Anti-Involution Premium Is Gone – Polysilicon Spot Breaks ¥38,550/MT (-36.4% From December Peak); Cross-Name Read-Through for JKS, CSIQ, and DQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What the Chart Shows — and Why It Matters The dominant polysilicon futures contract (多晶硅主连) closed today at ¥38,550/MT, down ¥2,360 (-5.77%) on the session alone, on volume of 13,502 contracts. The intraday range of…

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March 13, 2026

GLJ Solar Weekly – CSI Jan. 2026 Data Update: Post Pull-Forward Hangover Confirmed; ENPH & SEDG Structurally Impaired; Module “Other” at 87.5% Signals Trouble for JKS, CSIQ, & TSLA

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) January 2026 data delivers a verdict across two distinct dimensions: (1) the post-ITC pull-forward hangover is confirmed, with the MLPE duopoly’s inverter and storage share erosion accelerating; and (2)…

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February 26, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 2/25/2026: Cost pass-through stalls in midstream as end-market demand remains weak

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Please see bottom of report for important disclosures Gordon L. Johnson/GLJ Research LLC ————————————————– Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$47,630/ton = $6.65/kg) – down 3.4% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT….

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February 17, 2026

GLJ Solar Weekly – CSI Data Dump for Dec. ’25 Sheds Light on Storage Momentum & Fireside Chat w/ Solar Bull on State of Market in Q1

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

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January 26, 2026

What do Surging Silver/Polysilicon Prices (i.e., ~9.5% of the BOM for Chinese Solar Modules) Mean for Jinko Solar’s and Canadian Solar’s Margins… and is it “Priced in”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? According to PVInsights, and keeping in mind that polysilicon comprises roughly ~15% of the bill of materials (“BOM”) for a Chinese solar module, N-type recharge polysilicon prices rose ~25% y/y in 2025 –…

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January 23, 2026

Recent Solar Channel Checks Shed Light on State of Play of Demand Backdrop in Early 2026

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line: To start 2026, Wall Street has quietly but decisively reiterated its solar optimism, though with notable selectivity. In SolarEdge (SEDG; SELL), TD Cowen broke ranks recently by upgrading the stock to Buy, chasing…

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January 16, 2026

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative Data Dump for Nov ’26 + Fireside Chat w/ Large US Solar Distributor + State of the Union in EU Solar Market + Conversation w/ China Solar Investor on Potential for Q1 Demand Pull-Forward

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

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