Company Notes


July 24, 2025

Tesla 2Q25 Review – Elon Musk’s Lack of Usual “Puffery” on Q2 Conf. Call + Guidance that 4Q25E-2Q26E Could be “Rough” + -89%/-42% YoY Fall in Q2 Free-Cash-Flow/Op. Income = “Big” Problems Ahead for Struggling Auto Maker Trading at 181x Forward P/E

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Take on Tesla’s 2Q25A Results. While TSLA reported Q2 top-line sales and non-GAAP adj. EPS that missed Cons. ests. – i.e., Cons. ests. that were revised sharply lower through 2Q25, lowering the “bar” for…

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July 22, 2025

Enphase 2Q25 Earnings Preview – With Our Checks Pointing to Microinverter Unit Orders Falling Below Installers’ Expectations in Both the U.S. & Europe in Q2/Q3, we See a Q2 Rev/Non-GAAP EPS Miss as Likely; SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Enphase a (Good) Short into Tonight’s Earnings Report? Betting against heavily shorted solar stocks (i.e., ENPH, with 26.469mn shares sold short at present, or 20.88% of the float, currently boasts its highest level of…

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July 22, 2025

Tesla 2Q25 Earnings Preview – We See Results Coming in Largely In line Due to Bitcoin Gain + Aggressive FSD Revenue Recognition Offsetting Neg. FOREX Hit + Margin Slashing Rate Buy-Downs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla 2Q25E Earnings Preview. In this note, we adjust our 2Q25E TSLA model after our review of: (a) our expectation for an increase in gross profit/car sold QoQ as other cars sold saw price increases…

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July 16, 2025

How’s Demand for SunRun’s Most Recent Asset-Backed-Security Solar Bond (SUNRN 2025-2 Solar Lease/PPA ABS) “Faring”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… What’s the Update on SunRun’s SUNRN 2025-2 Solar Lease/PPA ABS Bond? In our attempt to keep tabs on the state of affairs in the solar Asset-Backed-Security (“ABS”) space, below we provide visibility into what…

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July 15, 2025

Barring A Divestment of Its Core Operations, Given CSI Solar is Incorporated in China, we Believe Incremental Projects in Canadian Solar’s Recurrent Segment (i.e., the bulk of its valuation) are Subject to FEOC Restrictions, Meaning they are Worth Materially Less

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Canadian Solar Incorporated in Canada or the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”)? When we asked popular artificial intelligence applications OpenAI and xAI where Canadian Solar (“CSIQ”) is incorporated, the answer from both was Canada….

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July 10, 2025

China’s Shift to a Planned Poly-Si Economy = Light at the End of the Tunnel for Daqo; Upgrade from SELL to BUY; Our New $30.51/shr Yr-End 2025 PT Suggests +61% Upside

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Daqo New Energy (“DQ”) Now a Top Solar Sector BUY? In light of the China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (“MIIT”) new proposed policy around the polysilicon segment, which includes a significant restructuring…

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July 1, 2025

The Senate’s Version of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” Suggests… When it Rains, it Pours for Chinese Solar Parts Suppliers

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The U.S. Senate’s Tax/Spend Bill Makes it a Lot Harder to Use Chinese Solar Products when Installing Solar Domestically – i.e., the U.S. Congress is taking a hard line against Chinese solar panels used in…

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June 26, 2025

Tesla’s Supervised “Robotaxi” Launch Has been a “Woeful” Flop

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, we provide on-the-ground feedback from Tesla’s widely acclaimed “Robotaxi” rollout this past Sunday. That is, Tesla’s “launch” has been limited to a handful of its most loyal cult members (not…

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June 17, 2025

Downbeat US Senate Tax-and-Spend Bill Language + Lackluster Apr. ’25 California Sales + Sig. Lease/PPA Exposure = We Downgrade SolarEdge from HOLD to SELL; Our Year-End ’25 PT Remains $6.90/shr (-71% Downside)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Move our Rating on SolarEdge from HOLD to SELL on Surprisingly Bearish Senate Tax-and-Spend Bill Language. With SolarEdge still struggling in the US and European markets (discussed below), the expectation from many solar pundits…

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June 17, 2025

Our Analysis of Sunnova’s Hidden “Second Set of Books” + US Senate’s Tax-and-Spend Bill Language = We Downgrade Sunrun from HOLD to SELL; Our Year-End ’25 PT is Now $0.01/shr (-99% Downside)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In the Infamous Words of Famed Children’s Character Porky Pig… “T-T-T-That’s all folks”! In this note, via math and an extremely (simplified) explanation, we detail why, barring SunRun’s ability to (in our opinion) inflate the…

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June 16, 2025

GLJ Research Updated Tesla Delivery Forecasts and Model Estimates

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Re-Publishing Our Tesla 2025E-26E Estimates and Model for Maintenance Purposes. In this note (Ex. 1-4) we provide our most recent estimates for TSLA. More specifically, we update our quarterly: (a) delivery ests., (b) revenue ests.,…

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June 12, 2025

Westinghouse’s Participation in the Construction of Two Czech Reactors Adds US$170mn to Cameco’s Q2 EBITDA; Yet, U3O8 Spot Risks Demand Caution – Sell the News?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Things Just Keep Getting Better for Cameco. Cameco’s 49% share in Westinghouse is now expected to boost its Q2 results on the back of Westinghouse’s participation in the construction of two new nuclear reactors at…

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June 10, 2025

Tesla’s Week 11 China Sales Collapse Further (& miss Consensus by -36.5%), Falling -33.5%/37.4% WoW/QoQ, Respectively; and, What to Expect this Thursday at Tesla’s Austin “Robotaxi” Event

By Gordon L. Johnson II

It’s Now Clear… Tesla has a Demand Problem in China. In this note we detail the collapse in TSLA’s China sales year-to-date (“YTD”), based on both new monthly and weekly data released yesterday/today, despite: (a)…

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May 30, 2025

We Upgrade Sunrun to HOLD from SELL on: (a) Recent Collapse in Share Price + (b) Risk that Senate Budget Bill Language Favors Resi Solar = Risk of N-Term/Swift Move Higher in Shares; L-Term, we Still See Core Business as Structurally Flawed (due to RUN understating the O&M expenses associated with its SPVs)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We are Upgrading Sunrun to HOLD from SELL as the “Solar Friendly” Senate is Set to Return from Adjournment Jun. 2nd (i.e., Monday). While we continue to see RUN’s business as structurally flawed (given our…

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May 30, 2025

We Upgrade SolarEdge to HOLD from SELL on: (a) Recent Collapse in Share Price + (b) Risk that Senate Budget Bill Language Favors Resi Solar = Risk of N-Term/Swift Move Higher in Shares; L-Term, we Still See Core Business as Structurally Flawed (due to SEDG’s microinveters being too expensive/its lack of innovation in the battery storage market)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We are Upgrading SolarEdge to HOLD from SELL as the “Solar Friendly” Senate is Set to Return from Adjournment Jun. 2nd (i.e., Monday). While we continue to see SEDG’s business as structurally flawed (given our view…

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