Fortescue Metals Group (FMG-ASX)

February 20, 2026

The Commodity Trap: Fortescue’s Earnings Cliff Is Here

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis We reiterate our SELL rating on Fortescue and adjust our year-end 2026E price target higher to A$15.00 (from A$12.00 prior) ahead of H1 FY26 results on February 25. Our conviction has increased materially…

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September 20, 2024

Iron Ore Price Downside Risk + Pending CAPEX Step-Up = Keep us Cautious on N-Term Outlook/Fundamentals; SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, Where Do We Stand on Fortescue and How Did its FY24 Results Impact our Outlook? Our SELL rating on FMG has been predicated on our negative 2024E-25E outlook for iron ore prices, as well…

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August 3, 2022

Are Iron Ore Bears in the Driver’s Seat & is “Mr. Market” Ignoring Signaling from China’s July Data?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

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May 17, 2021

Gearing Up for a Rocky Ride in Iron Ore, We Are Downgrading FMG to SELL Ahead of that Curve in 2H21

By Gordon L. Johnson II

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December 18, 2020

Is the Chinese Economy “Booming”, Suggesting the Bulk Commodity Price Reflation Trade has “Legs”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

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December 11, 2020

We Believe the Mining Boom Is Just in the Second Inning of a Long Game, & FMG Is a Clear Beneficiary

By Gordon L. Johnson II

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June 9, 2020

China + Vale + the Fed = 3 Reasons to Be Bullish Iron Ore; After a Stellar Run, Upgrade FMG to HOLD

By Gordon L. Johnson II

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March 30, 2020

While Near-Term Support Is Likely for Iron Ore Prices, We Expect a Sharp Reversal to Emerge in 2Q20

By Gordon L. Johnson II

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September 20, 2019

Expected Drop in Iron Ore Prices + a Relative Disadvantage Pushes Us to Sell

By Gordon L. Johnson II

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