Industrials

Is the U.S. Stock Market at Risk of a More Accelerated Sell-Off Next Week (given just 3.5 trading days)? In this note, when looking at: (a) the correlation between Bitcoin (“XBTUSD”) and the Invesco QQQ…

What’s the Macro Trading Set-Up Headed into September Month-End? In general, into month-end, we believe the market is being steered by three forces – and none of them are fundamentals. That is, barring a surprise…

For the First Time Since 2018, w/ the Fed’s QE Slush Fund (i.e., the “RRP”) Now Nearly Empty, Treasury Issuance Has to Come From Bank Reserves; Are Equity Bulls Overlooking This? Liquidity fell in 2022…

A Material Amount of Liquidity Appears Likely to be Drawn Out of U.S. Equity Markets Near-Term. As a reminder to our readers, during negotiations before the debt ceiling was raised with the One Big Beautiful…

How are US Consumers and Firms Reacting to Trump’s Tariffs? Before we attempt to answer this question, we’ll remind our readers, in our 3/26/25 GLJ Macro Weekly update, based on: (1) what we saw as…

Is the Recent U.S. Stock Market Rally on its “Last Leg”? With U.S. tax season nearing, meaning a material amount of liquidity is set to exit the U.S. market, combined with the share buyback blackout…

Is U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent About to Unleash the U.S. Liquidity Kraken? In general, U.S. liquidity defined as: Δ in Fed Bal. Sheet – Δ in Treasury General Account (“TGA”) – Δ in Reverse…

“It’s Liquidity that Moves Markets” – Stanley Druckenmiller. In this note, we look to address the n-term outlook for U.S. equities when considering: (a) the Overnight Reverse Repo (“RRP”) facility, or money created during the…

Janet Yellen is Always Good For the U.S. Stock Market… Right… Right? In the analysis the follows, we provide our take on Janet Yellen’s announcement around the U.S. Treasury’s estimates for privately-held net marketable borrowing for…

Yesterday, at 3:00pm EST., the US Treasury Released its Estimates for its Borrowing Needs in 2Q24E and 3Q24E. As seen here (link), yesterday at 3:00pm EST, the US Treasury provided its funding/needs forecasts around: (a)…

Is the Fed Using the Wrong Neutral Rate, Suggesting they are Sleepwalking the US Economy into a Much “Nastier” Recession than if they Weren’t Constantly Pushing Imminent Rate Cuts as a Certainty? Based on the…

Huh? Did you Say the 4Q23 Market Surge was a “Bull Trap“? First off, we note that J. Yellen’s Oct. 31st Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”) shocked market participants by focusing the US government’s 4Q23/1Q24 funding…

What’s Up? We remind our readers that “core services” PCE inflation is what Fed chair Jerome Powell has been harping about in recent talks, with a laser focus on “core services PCE excluding housing” as…

What’s Up? As a follow-up to our 10/9/23 note titled “GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the Next Great Shorts?“, since which the SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF has traded down -6.4%…

What’s Up? In this note, which is a follow-up to our 8/30/23 GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly, where we asked: “Is it Time to Fade the Homebuilder Stocks“, we look at: (a) wage growth in the U.S.,…