July 30, 2024
Janet Yellen is Always Good For the U.S. Stock Market… Right… Right? In the analysis the follows, we provide our take on Janet Yellen’s announcement around the U.S. Treasury’s estimates for privately-held net marketable borrowing for…
April 30, 2024
Yesterday, at 3:00pm EST., the US Treasury Released its Estimates for its Borrowing Needs in 2Q24E and 3Q24E. As seen here (link), yesterday at 3:00pm EST, the US Treasury provided its funding/needs forecasts around: (a)…
February 20, 2024
Is the Fed Using the Wrong Neutral Rate, Suggesting they are Sleepwalking the US Economy into a Much “Nastier” Recession than if they Weren’t Constantly Pushing Imminent Rate Cuts as a Certainty? Based on the…
January 10, 2024
Huh? Did you Say the 4Q23 Market Surge was a “Bull Trap“? First off, we note that J. Yellen’s Oct. 31st Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”) shocked market participants by focusing the US government’s 4Q23/1Q24 funding…
October 31, 2023
What’s Up? We remind our readers that “core services” PCE inflation is what Fed chair Jerome Powell has been harping about in recent talks, with a laser focus on “core services PCE excluding housing” as…
October 23, 2023
What’s Up? As a follow-up to our 10/9/23 note titled “GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the Next Great Shorts?“, since which the SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF has traded down -6.4%…
October 9, 2023
What’s Up? In this note, which is a follow-up to our 8/30/23 GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly, where we asked: “Is it Time to Fade the Homebuilder Stocks“, we look at: (a) wage growth in the U.S.,…
August 30, 2023
Is the US Housing Market Facing a Serious Problem N-Term (When Looking at the Host of Recently Available Data)? The SPDR S&P Homebuilder Index (XHB; NC) is up +36.1% YTD, significantly outperforming even the S&P…
August 11, 2023
Our Take on the July CPI Report. In this note, we provide our take on the July CPI report. That is, with Consensus now pricing in the first rate hike as soon as the 3/20/24…
August 2, 2023
In this Note, We Discuss What Could Prove to be a Mar. 2020-Like Black Swan in 3Q23/4Q23. Is there a black swan coming this year that’s currently flying under the radar? In this note, we…
July 26, 2023
So, How’s the Housing Market Shaping Up? In this note, we look at: (a) the recent Case-Shiller National Home Price Index data reported yesterday, as well as (b) US homebuyer debt-to-income ratios (“DTIs”) and downpayment…
July 7, 2023
Update on Global Liquidity from the Ten Central Banks we Track as well as a Steel Industry “Check-Up”. In this note, we look at the current liquidity situation at the world’s largest ten Central Banks…
June 12, 2023
So How are Things Trending when Looking at Liquidity, Rent Inflation, and Steel Market Data? In this note, we provide a check-in on: (a) the state of U.S. liquidity when looking at a combination of…
May 25, 2023
Is There a Pending Disaster Brewing on the Fed’s Inflation Fight Front, which is Flying Completely Under the Radar? In recent communications with the market, the Fed has expressed its view that core inflation (i.e.,…
May 22, 2023
The Invesco QQQ Index and the Treasury General Account (“TGA”) Balance Have Tracked Each Other Quite Closely Since 11/1/22. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s TGA account balance (i.e., the “piggy…