Renewable Energy


January 14, 2025

Does the Path for US Treasury Rates (as well as the Pending Trump Administration) Suggest Solar Stocks Could See an Incremental -80.2% Downside (yes, you heard that right)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is It True that if One Can Accurately Predict the Path of US Treasury Yields, One Can Also, With Great Veracity, Predict What US Solar Stocks Will Do? As outlined in Ex. 1 below, since…

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December 23, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Nov. California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” + Updated OTR SEDG/TSLA/ENPH Survey Data + Nov. European PPA Volumes = “Coal” in SolarEdge’s/Enphase’s 4Q24E Earnings Christmas Stockings?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Data out of California Last Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 4Q24E Earnings Season for the MLPE U.S. Inverter Bellwethers (i.e., SEDG + ENPH). In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from: (a) the California…

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December 12, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for Oct. ’24 Provides Insights Into U.S. Solar Market & SolarEdge/Enphase

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Data out of California This Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 4Q24E Earnings Season for the MLPE US Inverter Suppliers. In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from the California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Oct….

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November 26, 2024

Our Market-Cap Weighted “Resi Solar Index” is up +34.2% from the Post-Trump-Election-Win Lows; is this Sustainable/Justified?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Resi Solar Stocks have Staged a Magnificent Rally Off the Lows. Using our “Resi Solar Index”, which is simply the sum of the market caps for SEDG + ENPH + NOVA + RUN, we…

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November 5, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for 3Q24 & Sep. ’24 Provide Insights Into U.S. Solar Market and SolarEdge/Enphase

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Update from California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) – Pulse on US Solar Market Thru Sep. 2024 (3Q24 Solar Market Sales in California Down -43.5% YoY & -0.6% QoQ, with Sep. 2024 Sales Down -32.8% & -7.4% YoY…

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November 4, 2024

How Have Solar Stocks Performed 1-Month, 3-Months, and 6-Months Out After the Past 4 U.S. Presidential Elections?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How Have Solar Stocks Performed, Post Election, Since Obama was First Elected (i.e., Nov. 5th, 2008)? In this note we look at how the Invesco Solar TAN ETF Index has performed over the last four…

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October 30, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – (1) Fireside Chat w/ Largest US Distributor Provides Insights into How US Demand is Trending + (2) Chat w/ Large Chinese Hedge Fund Sheds Light on Bruited Domestic Chinese Solar Output Caps + (3) Update on China Installs Through Sep. 2024

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, all solar substrates in China were…

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October 2, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – August 2024 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” – Is Tesla Taking Storage Share Away from Enphase?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China were not…

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September 30, 2024

Has the Decision by China’s State Grid Company to Cut the Avg. Price it Pays for Solar Power to ~0.15 Yuan/kWh, from ~0.39 Yuan/kWh in 2023, Put Global Solar Demand at Risk? What’s up w/ U.S./Europe Solar Demand?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

On Sep. 23rd, China’s National Energy Administration (“NEA”) Released Data on Chinese Solar Installs Through Aug. 2024. In what follows, we provide an update on the state of the world’s most important solar market, China….

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September 26, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – What Does Yesterday’s US Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) Solar Installation Update Mean for the US Solar Market in 2024E, How is US Solar Demand Trending in Aug./Sep., & Did SMA Solar Really Say That?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 2-3), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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September 18, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for 2Q24 & Jul. ’24 + U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) YTD Installs/Prices + Is Lower-Margin Battery Demand Displacing Demand for Inverters Due to NEM 3.0?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China for mono-grade…

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August 29, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – May ’24 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” + Takeaways from “Fireside Chat” w/ Large US Solar Parts Distributor, & Is California About to Hit NEM 1.0 & 2.0 Customers w/ Retroactive Net Metering Cuts?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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August 1, 2024

2Q24 Review: Sunnova’s Very Existence Appears to be a Byproduct of its Willingness to (More) Aggressively Inflate the Value of Its Systems in Order to Collect U.S. Tax Credits (This is Not a Real/Sustainable Biz Model)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sunnova is in Big Trouble, No Matter What its “Fictional” Non-GAAP Adj.-EBITDA Says (a number so devoid of actual expenses, it more closely resembles revenue – i.e., in 2Q24, Sunnova’s non-GAAP adj.-EBITDA came in at…

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July 12, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – U.S. Module Prices Collapsed this Week; &, Are the 2H24E Solar Bulls Missing a “Big Trouble in Little Europe” Set-Up Into Q2 Earnings?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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July 3, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – April ’24 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” + Update on European Solar Markets (i.e., Germany + Italy + U.K. + Spain + Netherlands + France)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 23-24), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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