Renewable Energy


March 26, 2026

Solar Sector Channel Check: Fireside Chat w/ Krannich Solar CSO Confirms Demand Stagnation, ITC Behavioral Dislocation, and Module Cost Inflation; What’s it Mean for our Solar SELL Ratings (i.e., JKS, CSIQ, ENPH, SEDG, RUN, & DQ)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis GLJ Research conducted a structured expert channel check with a Chief Sales Officer at Krannich Solar — one of the largest solar equipment distributors in North America — to stress-test our below-consensus bear…

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March 23, 2026

POLYSILICON FUTURES FLASH: Anti-Involution Premium Fully Collapsed — Spot Futures Price ¥35,435/MT (-41.1% From December Peak); Reiterate SELL on JKS, CSIQ, DQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis (A.) The Event — The Anti-Involution Premium Is Gone. As of today’s close (March 23, 2026), the dominant polysilicon futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange settled at ¥35,435/MT, down ¥3,130 (-8.12%) on…

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March 19, 2026

POLYSILICON FUTURES FLASH NOTE: The Anti-Involution Premium Is Gone – Polysilicon Spot Breaks ¥38,550/MT (-36.4% From December Peak); Cross-Name Read-Through for JKS, CSIQ, and DQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What the Chart Shows — and Why It Matters The dominant polysilicon futures contract (多晶硅主连) closed today at ¥38,550/MT, down ¥2,360 (-5.77%) on the session alone, on volume of 13,502 contracts. The intraday range of…

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March 13, 2026

GLJ Solar Weekly – CSI Jan. 2026 Data Update: Post Pull-Forward Hangover Confirmed; ENPH & SEDG Structurally Impaired; Module “Other” at 87.5% Signals Trouble for JKS, CSIQ, & TSLA

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) January 2026 data delivers a verdict across two distinct dimensions: (1) the post-ITC pull-forward hangover is confirmed, with the MLPE duopoly’s inverter and storage share erosion accelerating; and (2)…

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February 26, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 2/25/2026: Cost pass-through stalls in midstream as end-market demand remains weak

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Please see bottom of report for important disclosures Gordon L. Johnson/GLJ Research LLC ————————————————– Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$47,630/ton = $6.65/kg) – down 3.4% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT….

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February 17, 2026

GLJ Solar Weekly – CSI Data Dump for Dec. ’25 Sheds Light on Storage Momentum & Fireside Chat w/ Solar Bull on State of Market in Q1

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

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January 26, 2026

What do Surging Silver/Polysilicon Prices (i.e., ~9.5% of the BOM for Chinese Solar Modules) Mean for Jinko Solar’s and Canadian Solar’s Margins… and is it “Priced in”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? According to PVInsights, and keeping in mind that polysilicon comprises roughly ~15% of the bill of materials (“BOM”) for a Chinese solar module, N-type recharge polysilicon prices rose ~25% y/y in 2025 –…

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January 23, 2026

Recent Solar Channel Checks Shed Light on State of Play of Demand Backdrop in Early 2026

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line: To start 2026, Wall Street has quietly but decisively reiterated its solar optimism, though with notable selectivity. In SolarEdge (SEDG; SELL), TD Cowen broke ranks recently by upgrading the stock to Buy, chasing…

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January 16, 2026

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative Data Dump for Nov ’26 + Fireside Chat w/ Large US Solar Distributor + State of the Union in EU Solar Market + Conversation w/ China Solar Investor on Potential for Q1 Demand Pull-Forward

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

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January 13, 2026

Are Chinese Solar Stocks Rallying for a (really) Dumb Reason… Setting Up a “Wile E. Coyote” Moment (i.e., cliff) for the Shares in Late March?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line. Last Thursday (link), in what can only be described as unambiguously bad news for publicly traded Chinese solar manufacturers, the CCP quietly pulled the rug out from under the industry’s economics. Effective April…

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January 9, 2026

China Solar Update: Regulators Pull the Handbrake on “Anti-Involution” Initiative

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Anti-Involution Hopes Drove Stellar Performance in Chinese Solar Stocks in 2025. China’s “anti-involution” push in solar is Beijing admitting – quietly – that endless capacity growth and price wars have produced impressive volume statistics and…

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December 8, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative Data Dump for Oct ’25 + Fireside Chat w/ Large US Solar Distributor + Why the US ‘TPO’ Market May Disappoint in 2026E

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

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November 19, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – CSI Data Dump for Sep. ’25 Sheds Light on Storage Momentum & Debunking the ‘Solar-Plus-Storage is Cheaper than Nat. Gas’ CSIQ/JKS Bull Thesis (using elementary algebra)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (‘CSI’) Data Offers a Fairly Blunt Reality Check on the Health of the MLPE Inverter Leaders (ENPH + SEDG) as well as the Broader US Storage Market. Sep.’s data release isn’t just…

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October 16, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly: California Solar Initiative Data Dump for Jul./Aug. ’25 – Do Historical Correlations Imply (Sizeable) Risk to ENPH’s & SEDG’s Upcoming Q3 Earnings Reports?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Solar/Storage Markets. Over the 3Q15-to-2Q25 period (i.e., 40 quarters of data),…

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October 7, 2025

Fireside Chat w/ Large Solar Distributor Sheds Light on Current “State of the Union” for Solar Sector Headed into Q3 Results

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What is the Largest Distributor of Solar Products Seeing into Year End? In the below, we provide a Q&A we had, yesterday, with the largest distributor of U.S. solar products in the world – and…

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