Renewable Energy


August 22, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative June Data Dump Shows Collapse in Battery Attach Rates Balanced by “Explosion” in Installs; Yet, Subdued Q3 Guide from CSIQ/SEDG/ENPH Suggests July Data Could Disappoint

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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August 10, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat(s) w/ Head of Sales for a Large U.S. Solar Parts Distributor (i.e., are ENPH and SEDG Facing an “Existential” Event?) and a Large Chinese Solar Investment Fund Based in Hong Kong (i.e., is the EU Solar Market Faring Worse than U.S. Investors Realize?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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August 7, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat w/ Head of Sales for Large Global Inverter Player & Our Take on the Sudden Departure of Sunrun’s Chief Accounting Officer Following Earnings

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 7-8), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in…

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July 27, 2023

Is Sunnova Copying the Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model of Borrowing Short at a Higher Rate than it’s Lending Long, Meaning “Catastrophe” is Only a Matter of Time?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fundamental Question Sunnova Investors Must Ask the Company/Themselves is Simple: “Why Does it Appear Sunnova is Copying the Failed Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model”. While we get into NOVA’s dismal results in the…

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July 6, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative Apr/May Data Dump Shows Collapse in Battery Installs/Attach Rates & Sharp Fall in Solar Installs; Are Solar Bulls Underestimating the Negative Effects from NEM 3.0 & Collapse in Nat. Gas Prices

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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June 6, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly Musings – California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump Provides Insights into Current State of U.S. Solar Demand & Update on 2023E China Solar Demand

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 11-12), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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May 23, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat w/ Top-3 US Solar Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on How 2Q23 is Trending; Plus, EIA Updates on Imports, Installs, and Shipments as Well as EU Solar Market Update

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 5-6), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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May 5, 2023

What if We Told You Instead of Growing +39% in ’22, Sunnova’s Recurring EBITDA Fell -47%, & Instead of Coming in at +$14.6mn in 1Q23, its Recurring EBITDA was Actually -$17.4mn (i.e., its Core Biz is Currently “Hemorrhaging” Cash)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Believe After Adjusting for Accounting Changes Sunnova has Made, Their Recurring Adjusted EBITDA Looks Much Different. Anyone who knows Sunnova (NOVA; NC), knows they are the kings of newly introduced non-GAAP accounting metrics –…

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April 14, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – February 2023 California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump & “Fire Side Chat” with the Head of Sales for Leading Global Chinese Inverter Supplier (i.e., have inverter margins, globally, peaked?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 10-11), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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March 28, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – Fire Side Chat w/ Top U.S. Solar Distribution “Behemoth” Sheds Light on Current State of U.S. Solar Market Ahead of Q1 Results

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 2-3), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…

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March 22, 2023

Weekly Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/22/23) – Domestic Chinese Poly-Si Prices “Crushed” Again; Module Prices Join in the Price Recession

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 3/22/23 – PVInsights. “Surging supply keep weakening polysilicon and solar modules. Polysilicon prices weakened this week as suppliers worried about a potential escalation of inventories amid rising supply, and Chinese buyers stayed their expectation…

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March 20, 2023

GLJ Research Updated Solar Industry Pitch Book – Updated 2023E Solar Thesis

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Have Updated our 35-Page Solar Deck. In short, the core themes detailed in our updated solar pitch book include: (1) our view that pol-Si will return to oversupply this year, crashing prices back down…

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March 19, 2023

Were You Aware that Sunnova is, as Per a 3/16/23 8-K Filing, Seeking a De Facto $3.3bn US Government Funded Bailout (and Their General Counsel Has Retired Effective Immediately)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Skimming Sunnova’s 8-K Filings this Morning, we Made a Significant Discovery. Skimming NOVA’s website today, we found a groundbreaking 8-K filing that seems to be flying under the radar. That is, we found that: (a)…

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March 15, 2023

Weekly Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/15/23) – Domestic Chinese Poly-Si Prices “Tumble Again”; Wafer Prices, However, Perk Up

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 3/15/23 – PVInsights. “Polysilicon struggles between sales and pricing amid rising inventories and surge downside risks. Polysilicon prices tumbled on Wednesday as the disappointing stockpile drawdown raised fears of the glut and weighed on…

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March 9, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – Fire Side Chat w/ Top U.S. Solar Distribution Behemoth Sheds Light on Current State of U.S. Solar Market

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…

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