SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG)


November 7, 2024

SolarEdge Reports Dismal Q3 Results (as we warned) & Guides Poorly (as we warned); but, the Real “Star” Was the Depressing 4Q24E Gross Margin Guidance, Despite Writing Inventories Down by -68.4%

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge and the “Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day” Quarter. Last night, after the close, our current top solar short idea, SEDG, reported 3Q24 rev/non-GAAP EPS/free-cash-flow of $260.9mn/-$15.33/-$111.2mn vs. Cons. $273.4mn/-$1.67/-$77.6mn (GLJe $254.4mn/-$1.69/-$108.8mn) – i.e., a herculean…

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October 8, 2024

What if the Cavalry (i.e., the “Magical Rebound” Wall Street Typically Predicts for Fallen Solar Stars) Isn’t Coming? Is SolarEdge Still a Good/Great Short Following its Recent Acute Slide?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge Still Boasts 4 BUYS, 28 HOLDS, w/ just 5 SELLS (despite collapsing -78.2% YTD vs. +19.4% for the S&P 500 YTD), and an Avg. Forward 12-Month Price Target of $32.45 (i.e., +58.9% upside from…

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June 25, 2024

What Does SolarEdge’s 2Q24E Guidance for -$150mn in Free-Cash-Flow (“FCF”) Burn vs. the Cons. Est. of +$215mn of FCF Generation Mean for 2H24E… Where the Street is Modeling Significant Upside for SolarEdge (and Enphase)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge Announces it is Raising $300mn via Senior Convertible Notes due 2029 and Provides (disappointing) 2Q24E Free-Cash-Flow Guidance. So, yesterday, after the close, via an 8-K filing, SEDG made three key announcements, including: (1) it…

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February 7, 2024

Despite Strength in Solar Stocks Today, Do Enphase’s 4Q23 Results & 1Q24E Guidance Actually Foretell a Coming “Nuclear Winter” for Solar Stocks (i.e., are they still grossly overvalued)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Solar Stocks are Roaring Higher Today, Despite Enphase’s 4Q24 Revs. Missing a Q4 Street Est. that Had Been Cut -51.9% Over the Past 6 Months (yes, you heard that right); Does this Make (Any) Sense?…

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December 1, 2023

Is Wall Street Being Too Generous Modeling SolarEdge’s 2024E-25E Ests., Meaning, Similar to the 3Q23 Earnings “Debacle”, Sharp Forward Earnings Revisions Lower Are Fated?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Houston, We Have a Problem. As a reminder, when SEDG reported 3Q23 results a few weeks back, despite negatively preannouncing days prior (due to order delays/cancellations as customers double/triple ordered in 2022, primarily in Europe),…

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November 8, 2023

Fireside Chat w/ Leading U.S. Solar Parts Distribution Company and U.S. MLPE Inverter Leader Provide Further Insights into SolarEdge’s/Enphase’s N-Term Outlook

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, following, what we see as incremental discussions we held this week with: (a) the leading distributor of solar parts in the U.S., as well as (b) the world’s leading multi-platform…

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November 2, 2023

If you Think SolarEdge is Bad Now… in the Famous Words of Canadian Rock Band Bachman… “You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge Falls as it Guides to 4Q23E non-GAAP (which is BS as stock comp counts) Operating Income Loss of -$106.9mn (vs. Street’s $11.3mn GAAP Est.). As of the writing of this note (i.e., 3:17am EST),…

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October 4, 2023

Fireside Chat w/ Inverter Market Expert: Is SolarEdge Looking at an Armageddon-Like Situation w/ Respect to its Future Sales/Margins & are Bulls “Asleep at the Wheel” as it Relates to the Potential Risk Here?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s the Latest on the US Inverter Market? Last night, after waiting for weeks for a response, one of our oldest US solar inverter contacts (we’ve been in touch with this individual since 2008), who…

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June 30, 2023

SolarEdge’s “Milk” is Souring… But it Hasn’t Yet Gone Fully Bad (i.e., We Believe Cons. has Set the 2Q23E Hurdle Low, After Which Things Become Much More Difficult)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge is Still Seen as Being in the Driver’s Seat as it Relates to the Global Solar Inverter Arms Race, a Thesis We Think Will Change (to the Downside) in 2H23. In this note, we…

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June 9, 2023

Four Separate “Fire Side” Chats w/ Contacts in China, the EU (Ahead of the SNEC Conf. in Munich), & the U.S. Shed Light on State of Solar Industry

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Burning the Midnight Oil Last Night Provided us an Opportunity to Catch up with Long-Time Contacts in China and the EU, as Well as the U.S. In this note, we provide four separate “fire side”…

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