March 3, 2026
Investment Thesis Sunrun is materially overvalued on any rigorous DCF construction – the stock is pricing in an outcome that the underlying cash flow trajectory does not support. Our $6.73 price target is anchored to…
February 27, 2026
Investment Thesis Headline beat masks deteriorating unit economics. Revenue inflated by asset-sale accounting. Volume declining. Creation costs rising. 2026E Cash Generation guidance of $350M midpoint is $110M below Street consensus – a material miss being…
November 10, 2025
What’s Up? All investors seem to care about when it comes to RUN is its whacky “cash generation” results/guidance – i.e., RUN’s definition of cash flow, which includes debt issued and, for the first time…
August 15, 2025
The US Treasury Has Issued Guidance… and it Couldn’t Be Better News for the Residential Solar Space. While many thought President Trump’s Treasury department was going to kill the loophole that allowed residential solar companies…
August 8, 2025
Is Sunrun Counting on the IRS to Be as Inept with Safe Harboring as It Has Been with the Recursive ITC? Earlier this week, we highlighted Sunrun’s own guidance that its inventory will balloon from…
August 7, 2025
So, Despite: Reporting 2Q25A Op. Cash Flow of -$293mn (Cons. -$142mn), 2Q25A Free-Cash-Flow of -$985mn (Cons. -$565mn), The Trump Administration’s Ongoing Attempts to Shut Down the U.S. Solar Industry, Seeing All its Peers Recently Go…
July 16, 2025
So… What’s the Update on SunRun’s SUNRN 2025-2 Solar Lease/PPA ABS Bond? In our attempt to keep tabs on the state of affairs in the solar Asset-Backed-Security (“ABS”) space, below we provide visibility into what…
June 17, 2025
In the Infamous Words of Famed Children’s Character Porky Pig… “T-T-T-That’s all folks”! In this note, via math and an extremely (simplified) explanation, we detail why, barring SunRun’s ability to (in our opinion) inflate the…
May 30, 2025
We are Upgrading Sunrun to HOLD from SELL as the “Solar Friendly” Senate is Set to Return from Adjournment Jun. 2nd (i.e., Monday). While we continue to see RUN’s business as structurally flawed (given our…
November 6, 2024
We Downgrade SunRun to SELL on Donald Trump’s U.S. Presidential Victory. With a new IRS Commissioner imminent, we move our rating on SunRun to SELL and re-introduce our 2024E year-end price target of $7.78/shr, or…
October 31, 2024
Cash Incinerating “Science Project” Company Sunnova Exhibits What it Does Best… Burn a Heap Load of Free-Cash-Flow (“FCF”). Yesterday, after the close, cash-incinerating third-party solar EPC/financing science-project company NOVA reported 3Q24 rev/adj.-EPS/FCF of $235mn/-$0.98/-$559.0mn vs….
October 28, 2024
Sunrun Reports Earnings Next Week on Thursday. Ahead of RUN’s 3Q24E results next Thursday, in this note, we detail why we believe being short the stock (into earnings) carries with it quite a bit of…
September 6, 2024
California is Considering Retroactively Cutting NEM 1.0 and 2.0 Benefits… But Why? As seen here, California is currently considering shifting NEM 1.0 and 2.0 customers, who pay ~2c/kWh for power, to the less advantageous NEM…
August 8, 2024
Does the Recent Sale of Resi Solar Loans Suggest NOVA is “Hiding” an Imminent ~$1.6bn Impairment Charge, Does SPWR’s Bankruptcy Pose an Existential Threat to RUN/NOVA, & Why Have 3 U.S. Gov’t Agencies Opened an…
February 29, 2024
The Cost of Sunrun’s Recent $475mn Convertible Bond Issue May Surprise You (link). As a reminder to those who don’t have a doctorate in “bond math”, when an investor buys a convertible bond they are…