January 3, 2024
So… Tesla’s Q4 Delivery Number Came in a Bit Ahead of our Est. (and mostly in line with Consensus); what’s our Quick Take? Yesterday, ahead of the market open, TSLA reported 4Q23 deliveries of 484.507K…
October 19, 2023
So How Did Tesla’s 3Q23 Results Come in vs. the Street’s Drastically Reduced Estimates? Last night, TSLA reported auto revs/auto-gross-margins (excl. credits) of $19.6bn/16.3%, missing Cons.’ $20.9bn/18.02% ests. by -6.44% and -172bps, respectively (we focus…
October 17, 2023
What’s Up? In this note, we provide updates on: (a) our bottoms-up earnings driver model for TSLA, to include our updated 3Q23E, 2023E, 2024E, and 2025E earnings estimates, (b) wait times for new TSLA orders…
October 2, 2023
Tesla Reports Q3 Production/Deliveries of 430.488K/435.059K, Missing the Cons’ est. of 461.992K/456.722K by a Mile. In this note, we discuss our views on TSLA’s just-reported 3Q23 production/delivery ests., which we previewed 9/18/23 when we said…
September 18, 2023
Tesla Has a Q3 Demand and Earnings Problem that Many Seem to Want to Ignore (for now). In this note, in addition to updating our bottom-up earnings driver model for TSLA’s 2023E and 2024E-25E earnings…
August 8, 2023
Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla’s CFO of Four Years, Announces his Immediate/Unexpected Departure Effective 8/4/23. Yesterday we learned that TSLA’s “young” 39yr old CFO decided to leave the company, unexpectedly (given, as recently as May, according to…
July 20, 2023
Were Tesla’s “Other Income” Line Flat QoQ, EPS Would have Missed by “a Mile” (i.e., the beat came, entirely, from a one-time item). In 2021-22, TSLA benefitted from both an automotive parts shortage and automobile…
July 17, 2023
The Extent of the Q2 Price Cut will Determine Tesla’s Fate Regarding a 2Q23 “Modest” Miss and/or “Huge” Miss. In this note we detail while we expect TSLA’s 2Q23E revs/EPS to come in at $24.4bn/$0.80…
May 23, 2023
Tesla Reports Week Seven Domestic China Sales. Just now, we got updated insurance data from China regarding TSLA’s week seven domestic China sales. And, the numbers were lackluster at best. That is, with 10.2K cars…
May 16, 2023
Checkup Time for Tesla in its Core Three Markets of China, the U.S., and Europe. In the following, we provide an update on China (to include today’s weekly insurance data for the week of May…
April 26, 2023
Notwithstanding Speculation about its Early “Demise”, Chinese Data on Weekly Cars Sales is Still Available. Despite claims by many, including GLJ Research, that China was discontinuing its weekly reporting on automobile sales, the data set…
April 19, 2023
After Updating our Bottom-Up Model, we See Risk(s) to Consensus’ 1Q23 Estimates. In what follows, we provide the key assumptions that drive our 1Q23E rev/adj.-EPS ests. of $22.590bn/$0.64 vs. Cons’ $23.365bn/$0.86 ests. (i.e., a miss),…
April 3, 2023
If it Wasn’t Clear Before, it Now is… Tesla Has a Demand Problem. Yesterday, while many of us were catching up on NBA basketball/lawn-work, TSLA reported 1Q23 car deliveries of 422.9K cars (where the sale…
March 28, 2023
We Cut our 1Q23 Delivery Estimate by -5.6% to Reflect Early Start to Demand “Crush” in China + EU. Overnight, we got an update on TSLA’s sale of vehicles in China (where demand fell -15.1%…
March 23, 2023
Are Tesla’s Car Sales Slated to Pull Ahead of the Current Consensus Estimate of 419.706K? In short, after an extensive overview of all of TSLA’s key markets last night (China + EU + USA +…