Our Research


June 12, 2026

Tesla (TSLA) – 2Q26E Deliveries Preview: We Model the Beat, Yet We’re Still Short

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Conclusion With roughly three weeks of the quarter still to run, our model points to 2Q26E global deliveries of 426,017 units — up 19.0% sequentially from 1Q26’s 358,023 and up 10.9% against the 384,122…

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June 11, 2026

SEDG/ENPH/RUN – Consensus Forecasts “Sunny Skies” in 2H26 for Resi Solar; Wood Mackenzie Says Down ~40%; One of them is Wrong; we Rate all Three SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Thesis, in One Breath Wood Mackenzie and SEIA forecast U.S. residential solar installations fall -21% y/y in 2026 (link). Therefore, when incorporating the consensus forecast that installs rise +5% y/y in 2Q26 — demand…

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June 10, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 6/10/2026: Solar Prices (across all substrates) Implode Coming out of China’s SNEC 19th Int’l PV Power Generation & Smart Energy Conf. June 3rd-5th

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Please see bottom of report for important disclosures Gordon L. Johnson/GLJ Research LLC ————————————————– Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$36,100/ton = $5.11/kg) – down 1.4% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source:…

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June 9, 2026

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) — Upgrading to HOLD from SELL: Supply Squeeze Overwhelms Seasonality; 3Q26 Consensus ASP of $1,132 Looks Stale vs. Our $1,184 on the Current HRC Curve — PT to $15.01 (~18% upside from yesterday’s close)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Executive Summary We are upgrading Cleveland-Cliffs (“CLF”) to HOLD from SELL and raising our 12-month price target to $15.01 (from $9.03 prior). The upgrade reflects a material change in the evidence since our May 5,…

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June 3, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 6/3/2026

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Please see bottom of report for important disclosures Gordon L. Johnson/GLJ Research LLC ————————————————– Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$36,605/ton = $5.18/kg) – down 0.3% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT….

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June 3, 2026

Nextpower (NXT) – Prevalon: The Right Pivot, But Largely in the Price — Reiterate Buy, Stay Disciplined on Entry

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line We reiterate our BUY rating on Nextpower (“NXT”) and raise our year-end 2026 price target to $149.44 (from $147) to reflect the strategically sound, accretive acquisition of Prevalon Energy. We do so, however,…

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June 2, 2026

California Solar Initiative — April 2026 Data: The February Scare Was (Mostly) Noise

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Volumes rebounded to 208MW. Tesla’s storage share snapped back to 61%, fully retracing the February dip. And the inverter duopoly has split cleanly in two — Enphase owns what’s left of residential, SolarEdge survives only…

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June 1, 2026

Modine Manufacturing (MOD, BUY) – Hyperscaler LTA sets the floor for incremental margins, per our checks – PT to $428

By Austin Wang

Modine Manufacturing’s recent F4Q update saw the OEM raise its LT 2028 guidance beyond its current capacity while announcing a volume commitment with an existing hyperscaler customer. We spoke to private co-vendors and competitors to…

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June 1, 2026

nVent Electric (NVT, BUY) – Partnership with Siemens & Fluence emphasizes strategic alignment with hyperscalers on Vera Rubin – Reiterate BUY

By Austin Wang

We review the possible strategic implications of this morning’s announcement of Vera Rubin product cooperation with Siemens (SIE GY, not rated) and Fluence (FLNC, not rated), including likely hyperscaler target customers based on our channel…

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June 1, 2026

What ENPH and SEDG Are Actually Worth: Fair Value at “Reasonable” Solid State Transformer (“SST”) Probabilities

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Where Fair Value Lands Sum-of-the-parts fair value built on GLJ earnings estimates: ENPH $26.55 (61% below current $68.66), SEDG $20.35 (74% below current $77.08). Our valuation is anchored on GLJ’s published EPS forecasts (ENPH: $1.45…

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May 28, 2026

Solar Weekly – China Installs Fall -78.9% Y/Y; APsystems Channel Check Confirms US “Down More Than 50% Nationwide”; OBBBA July 4 Cliff Looms — Reiterate Cautious Global Solar Fundamental View

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line We have covered the solar complex across three full cycles — the 2011–2013 polysilicon bust, the 2018–2019 China “531” subsidy collapse, and the 2023–2024 distributor inventory disaster. The pattern is repeating. China telegraphs…

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May 27, 2026

First Solar (FSLR) – Upgrade to BUY from HOLD: Cancellation Risk Resolved, CuRe Launched in Perrysburg, 232 Catalyst Now Loaded; PT to $315 (Prior $207.82)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis FSLR 1Q26 Earnings: The Cancellation Cliff Is Over, the Bear Case Is Broken, and the 232 Catalyst Is Locked/Loaded The headline: we were wrong on FSLR. When we moved this name to HOLD…

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May 27, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 5/27/2026

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Please see bottom of report for important disclosures Gordon L. Johnson/GLJ Research LLC ————————————————– Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$36,730/ton = $5.19/kg) – down 0.9% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT….

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May 22, 2026

ShovelCheck: Flex Lifts the Whole Data Center OEM Gym

By Austin Wang

Leading contract manufacturer Flex guided to further accelerative growth in 2027 +80% y/y on +70% in 2026 for c1Q27 spin of the Anord/Mardix PDU and JetCool CDU brands alongside a FlexPower power modules business that…

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May 20, 2026

Metals & Mining Weekly: Fortress Europe, Build America – Twin Policy Tailwinds Meet a Wobbling Demand Signal

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher vs. Previous Close: Today, Copper -1.09% to $6.07/lb; aluminum +0.30% to $1.63/lb; nickel +1.05% to $9.56/lb; zinc -0.19% to $1.63/lb; lead -0.01% to $1.10/lb; gold +1.39% to $4,545/oz; silver +3.47%…

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