Our Research


January 23, 2024

Tesla Q4 Earnings Preview: In the Words of B.B. King… “The Thrill is Gone”… for EV Cars That Is; PT to $23.53

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, What’s Up Next for Tesla and Electric Vehicle “Jesus” Elon Musk? With a cult-like following among retail investors (see here), exacerbated by the fact that the arguably most-followed sell-side analyst on TSLA came out…

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January 19, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – November ’23 Census Bureau Data Dump Shows Stubbornly High Solar Module Imports into the US, Implying Demand Bottlenecks in Europe & China in Q4

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 2-3), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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January 17, 2024

What do Last Night’s Tesla European Price Cuts Mean to the “Bottom Line”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… are Last Night’s Tesla Car Price Cuts a Big Deal? In this note, ahead of a full update to our bottom-up TSLA earnings driver model due out later this week, we use a back-of-the-envelope…

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January 16, 2024

Is the Sun Setting on SunPower… or Has it Already Set (And the Masses Just Don’t Know it Yet)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In this Note, in Addition to Updating our Extensive Bottom-Up SunPower Earnings Driver Model, We Update our Outlook on the Company. In the analysis that follows, following: (1) the Dec. 22nd, 2023 decision by Atlas…

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January 12, 2024

Midnight Valantine’s Day “China-Price-Cut” Massacre Spells Trouble for Tesla’s (Already) Sputtering Margins

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Tesla, with its Recent Model 3 “Highland” Refresh, which Pundits Predicted Would Reinvigorate Demand in China (link), Just Slash its China Car Prices Just 12 Days into 1Q24? In short, the answer, resoundingly, is…

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January 10, 2024

GLJ Macro Weekly – Was a Massive “Bull Trap” Set Following Janet Yellen’s Oct. 31st QRA “Shocker”, and is a 1Q24 Rug Pull Likely When Observing the Data?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Huh? Did you Say the 4Q23 Market Surge was a “Bull Trap“? First off, we note that J. Yellen’s Oct. 31st Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”) shocked market participants by focusing the US government’s 4Q23/1Q24 funding…

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January 4, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Nov. California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Nov.) Shows Collapsing US Solar Installs, Yet Provides Continued “Glimmer of Light” for PV Battery Space, & Update on 2023 European Solar Installs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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January 3, 2024

The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly on Tesla’s Record 4Q23 Deliveries (GLJ’s Quick Take)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… Tesla’s Q4 Delivery Number Came in a Bit Ahead of our Est. (and mostly in line with Consensus); what’s our Quick Take? Yesterday, ahead of the market open, TSLA reported 4Q23 deliveries of 484.507K…

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December 28, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – What if the Same “Catalyst” that Sparked the Record 4Q23 Stock Market Surge is Set to Force the Fed’s Hand on Resetting Rate Cut Expectations (Meaning a Sell-Off is Near)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Janet Yellen Intentionally Squeeze the Long-Duration Bond Shorts with her 10/31/23 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”), and is it About to Make the Fed’s Job a Lot Harder? By way of background, we remind our…

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December 21, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Both U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”), but More Importantly Census Bureau Data, Show a Spike in U.S. Cell/Module Imports, Begging the Question: ‘What’s this Mean for ASPs & Q4 Cell Vendor Revs/EPS?’

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 5-6), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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December 19, 2023

Has the Cost of Capital for RUN/NOVA/SPWR Actually Come Down as Goldman/Piper Sandler Claimed in their Recent Upgrades, or Did they Ignore the Recent “Blowout” in Solar ABS Spreads in Their “Analysis”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Sell-Side Right in Their Recent Claims that the Cost-of-Capital for the Solar Residential Rooftop “Mortgage Companies” (i.e., RUN/NOVA/SPWR/etc.) Has Dropped Given US Treasury Yields are Down, or Does Their Analysis Ignore the Recent…

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December 15, 2023

Are the Solar Asset Backed Security (“ABS”) Bonds Issued by the Likes of Sunnova/Sunrun/SunPower the Second-Coming of the Solar YieldCo Ponzi Schemes that Bankrupted Solar Bellwether SunEdison?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Solar ABS Bonds the “Second Coming” of the Solar YieldCo Ponzi Schemes that Effectively Bankrupted SunEdison? SunEdison, the once high-flying solar company seen by many as the solar “savior” of the industry (i.e., it…

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December 13, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – What Does the Nov. Acceleration in Core Services Inflation + The Loosest Financial Conditions, Currently, Since Before the Fed Began Hiking Rates = Mean for Whether Powell will Lean Dovish or Hawkish Today?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How’s Inflation Trending, and Just How Loose Are Financial Conditions at Present Ahead of the Fed’s Rate Decision/Powell’s Testimony Later Today? In this note, in detail, we analyze yesterday’s CPI inflation report, and also look…

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December 10, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Oct.) Paints “Grim” Picture for SEDG/ENPH, Yet Provides “Glimmer of Light” for PV Battery Space, & Update on German, UK, & Italian Monthly Solar Installs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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December 8, 2023

Adjusting Our Bottom-Up Jinko Solar Model for the Recent Global Solar Module Price “Crash”, we Look to Address How Much Incremental Earnings Downside the Company Has?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How’d Jinko Solar Fare in 3Q23? In 3Q23, JKS reported rev/GM%/non-GAAP EPS of $4.4bn/19.3%/$2.55 (Street $4.2bn/14.95%/$1.18). And, on those results 10/30/23, we’ll remind our readers that JKS’ share price surged +10.3% (while the lion’s share…

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