Our Research


May 30, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Despite Recent Calls that “AI” Will Drive Sig. Solar Demand, Looking at the Mar. ’24 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump”, Solar Demand in the Real World Continues to Be Lackluster

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex.16-17), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…

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May 22, 2024

Is an Inverter “Changing of the Guard” Occurring Unbeknownst to Wall Street, Setting Up a Captivating Shorting Opportunity in Enphase?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

As Global Solar Distributors/Installers Shift Away from Higher-Cost Module-Level-Performance-Electronics (“MLPE”) Inverters, Opting Instead for Lower-Cost String Optionality, we See Outsized Risk to Enphase. In this initiation of coverage report, we detail the basis for our…

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May 14, 2024

Is the “Roaring Kitty”-Driven Meme Stock Short Squeeze Pushing SunPower Higher an Outlier, and if So… Does that Set the Stock Up as a Great Short… Yet Again?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Which One of these Things (SPWR + GME + AMC) is Not Like the Other? When meme stocks squeeze, typically, owners of the stock hold firm onto the shares, causing fear among the “shorts“, sending…

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April 30, 2024

GLJ Macro Weekly: We Were Surprised by How “Hawkish” J. Yellen’s Funding/Needs Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”) was, Yesterday, into the Nov. Election, but The Devil is in the (yet to be released) Details

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Yesterday, at 3:00pm EST., the US Treasury Released its Estimates for its Borrowing Needs in 2Q24E and 3Q24E. As seen here (link), yesterday at 3:00pm EST, the US Treasury provided its funding/needs forecasts around: (a)…

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April 26, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Feb. ’24 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” + Our Recent Fireside Chat w/ the Largest Solar Distributor in the US = Spell Big(ger) Problems for the MLPE Inverter Vendors?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex.13-14), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…

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April 22, 2024

When Adding up Tesla’s “Nightmare Before Christmas” Weekend Price Cuts in the USA + China + Germany + France + Norway + Netherlands + Middle East + Africa = What Does it Mean for the Share Price (i.e., what’s the math say)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Took a Slashing to the Price of its New Cars All Through this Past Weekend. In the analysis that follows, using estimates for the number of cars TSLA is expected to sell in each…

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April 16, 2024

Just How Bad Will Tesla’s 1Q24E Numbers Be, and with this Week’s 15-20% Global Staff Cuts… are Tesla’s Q2 Fundamentals Setting up for Yet Another “Disaster”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s 1Q24E Revs/non-GAAP EPS Appear Set to Miss Wall Street’s Estimate… by a “Nautical Mile”; But What About 2Q24E? After spending the better part of this past weekend updating our bottom-up TSLA revenue driver model…

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April 11, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Jan. ’24 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” Suggest Things are About to go from Bad to Worse for SEDG/ENPH? And, Update on German/U.K./Italian Solar Installs YTD

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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March 28, 2024

We Upgrade Cleveland Cliffs to BUY from SELL on: “Trump Put” + “Biden Put” + Rotation Out of Tech into Value = Smooth Sailing Looking Forward

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Cleveland Cliffs Really a BUY Here? With the S&P 500 up +10.0% year-to-date (“YTD”), vs. CLF being up +8.4% over the same timeframe (i.e., CLF has underperformed), not to mention the QQQs being up…

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March 13, 2024

After Recalibrating Our Bottom-Up CSIQ Revenue-Driver Model, Our 2024E Yr-End Price Target Adjusts Lower to $9.10/shr From $16.43/Shr Prior; Are Consensus’ 2024E CSIQ Estimates “Stale”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Higher Interest Rates are Making Canadian Solar’s Ability to Sell its Utility-Scale Solar Projects “Very Difficult”. As a reminder, we note: (1) in 2Q23, CSIQ saw its Recurrent Energy segment deliver $360mn in revenues at…

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March 7, 2024

While the Street’s 2024E Adj.-EPS Estimate for Jinko Solar has “Collapsed” from $9.76/shr Three Months Ago to $5.98/shr Currently, is it Enough?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… is Jinko Solar Still a Good Short, or Has that Train Left the Station? In the analysis that follows, we update our views on global solar wafer/cell/module bellwether Jinko Solar, to include: (a) our…

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March 4, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does our Recent Fire Side Chat w/ the Largest Distributors of Solar Products in N. America & Our One-on-One Conversation w/ a Large On-the-Ground Chinese Solar Investor Suggest “Light at the End of the Tunnel” for Solar Bulls?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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February 29, 2024

If We Told You Sunrun’s Recent Convertible Bond Cost ~15.4% (or 8.14% for the Debt Portion Alone), Funds Which it is Investing into “Assets” that Generate ~3.7% Returns… Would that Make it More Compelling as a Short?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Cost of Sunrun’s Recent $475mn Convertible Bond Issue May Surprise You (link). As a reminder to those who don’t have a doctorate in “bond math”, when an investor buys a convertible bond they are…

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February 20, 2024

GLJ Macro Weekly: Is the Fed “Sleepwalking” us into a 10x Worse Recession in 2024 by Using the Wrong Neutral Rate & Ignoring UST Yields (which the bond market takes its cues from) in Favor of its Fed Funds Rate (which few use to price debt – i.e., banks pay 5bps for deposits)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Fed Using the Wrong Neutral Rate, Suggesting they are Sleepwalking the US Economy into a Much “Nastier” Recession than if they Weren’t Constantly Pushing Imminent Rate Cuts as a Certainty? Based on the…

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February 8, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Dec. California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Nov.) Shows Weak US Solar Demand May be Structural; & Update on German/U.K. Solar Installations

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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