Company Notes


May 23, 2023

Tesla’s Week 7 China Sales Disappoint, Forcing the Company to Export Made-in-China (“MIC”) Cars from Shanghai to Canada for the First Time Ever (this is not what growth companies do)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Reports Week Seven Domestic China Sales. Just now, we got updated insurance data from China regarding TSLA’s week seven domestic China sales. And, the numbers were lackluster at best. That is, with 10.2K cars…

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May 16, 2023

How Are Sales & Inventory Trending for Tesla in China, the U.S., and Europe Quarter-to-Date & What’s Our Latest Est. on 2Q23E GAAP EPS?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Checkup Time for Tesla in its Core Three Markets of China, the U.S., and Europe. In the following, we provide an update on China (to include today’s weekly insurance data for the week of May…

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April 27, 2023

Is There an “Existential Threat” to Owning the Solar Resi Names (RUN/NOVA/SPWR) & is it Being Ignored, Similar to the Fate that Befell SunEdison Shortly Before Bankruptcy?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Investors Currently Unaware/Ignoring the “Existential” Risks Facing the Subprime Solar Lending Industry? As detailed in Ex. 1 below, according to bond rating agency Kroll, default rates on solar loans are currently on the upswing….

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April 26, 2023

Update on Tesla’s Standing in the Chinese Auto Market (to Include Weekly Sales & 1Q23 Market Share Fluctuations) as well as US/EU Inventory

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Notwithstanding Speculation about its Early “Demise”, Chinese Data on Weekly Cars Sales is Still Available. Despite claims by many, including GLJ Research, that China was discontinuing its weekly reporting on automobile sales, the data set…

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April 19, 2023

1Q23E Earnings Preview – We Believe a Miss is Likely on Deck (we see Q1 Revs/Margins Missing Cons, & Negative Free Cash Flow)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

After Updating our Bottom-Up Model, we See Risk(s) to Consensus’ 1Q23 Estimates. In what follows, we provide the key assumptions that drive our 1Q23E rev/adj.-EPS ests. of $22.590bn/$0.64 vs. Cons’ $23.365bn/$0.86 ests. (i.e., a miss),…

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April 18, 2023

Surging U.S. Risk-Free Interest Rates + Weak CA Installs in Jan./Feb. + New PG&E Rate Reform Proposal = Tough Times Ahead for SunPower

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Expect Stronger Headwinds for SunPower in 1H23E vs. Cons. Expectations; 2H23E Could Also be Plagued with Economic Hardships as a Solar Price War Erupts. On 2/16/23, when SPWR provided 2023E guidance for: (a) 90K-110K…

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April 3, 2023

Tesla Reports 422.9K Cars Delivered vs. Factset Est. of 430K (a miss) & Days Sales in Inventory Spike for Record 4th Straight Quarter

By Gordon L. Johnson II

If it Wasn’t Clear Before, it Now is… Tesla Has a Demand Problem. Yesterday, while many of us were catching up on NBA basketball/lawn-work, TSLA reported 1Q23 car deliveries of 422.9K cars (where the sale…

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March 30, 2023

In Light of Jinko’s Sizeable Q4 Miss, What Does Our Model Point to For 2023E Rev/EPS Given the Current Global Oversupply of “Solar Parts”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In Light of its Sizeable Q4 adj.-GAAP EPS Miss ($0.82A vs. $1.20 est.), is the Street Still Too Optimistic? With global high-efficiency mono PERC module prices already down -8.8% YTD (vs. a full-year 2022 fall…

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March 28, 2023

In Our Final Update for the Qtr, We Cut Our Q1 Delivery Est. Sharply to Reflect an Earlier-Than-Expected Start of the Q2 “Demand Crush”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Cut our 1Q23 Delivery Estimate by -5.6% to Reflect Early Start to Demand “Crush” in China + EU. Overnight, we got an update on TSLA’s sale of vehicles in China (where demand fell -15.1%…

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March 23, 2023

Will Tesla’s 1Q23 Auto Deliveries Actually Surprise to the Upside Due to “Otherworldly” Price Cuts Since January?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Tesla’s Car Sales Slated to Pull Ahead of the Current Consensus Estimate of 419.706K? In short, after an extensive overview of all of TSLA’s key markets last night (China + EU + USA +…

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March 21, 2023

We Have Confirmed that a Large Publicly-Traded Solar Resi Rooftop Player Who Has a $575mn Warehouse Line w/ Credit Suisse Has Not Transferred this Facility to Apollo; Uh Oh!

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, Is Apollo the Current Administration Agent/Lender for RUN’s $1.8bn Warehouse Facility? While many – including two heads of structured product groups at Tier 1 investment banks – tell us they “believe” Apollo did indeed…

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March 14, 2023

Fireside Chat with Executive Director of Bulge-Bracket Solar ABS Desk Sheds Light on the Many “Hidden” Risks Facing the Resi Rooftop Solar Vendors (Q&A Below)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are the Risks to Sunrun and Other ABS Solar Issuers Much More “Pronounced” Than Investors Currently Appreciate? Today, we had the opportunity to chat with the head of a major investment bank’s solar ABS desk….

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March 7, 2023

Tesla Weekly China Sales Update & Feb. 2023 EU Sales Overview – What to Expect for 1Q23E Deliveries?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla China Sales Figures are in for the Week of Feb 27-Mar 5. Early this morning, we got updated sales figures for TSLA for the past week. In short, TSLA’s weekly sales came in at…

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March 1, 2023

“Beware the Ides of March”, or in this Case Severe Deflation Set to Take Hold of Global Polysilicon Prices

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Daqo Just Reported 4Q22 Results that Missed Consensus by a “Nautical Mile” (as we warned 11/30/22). Yesterday, before the open, global polysilicon bellwether Daqo New Energy (“DQ”) reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $864M/$648M/$4.71, respectively, sharply missing…

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February 28, 2023

Tesla’s China Sales Bomb, Missing Consensus by “a Mile”; & What to Expect at the Upcoming Investor Day (hint – more mistruths/hype)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s China Sales Come in at 10.705K for the Week of Feb. 20th-Feb. 26th, or a -44.5% Miss to Consensus’ 19.302K Est. Ladies and gentlemen, it’s official, and even the (honest) TSLA bulls will tell…

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