Industry Notes


March 22, 2023

Weekly Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/22/23) – GE Prices Flat Again; US HRC Futures Move (Slightly) Lower, Chinese Rebar Prices Now -3.3% Off Recent Highs (Is the “Grand Reopening” Fizzling?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices “Quiet” this Week After Big Declines; US HRC Prices Appear to be Stabilizing. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite…

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March 22, 2023

Weekly Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/22/23) – Domestic Chinese Poly-Si Prices “Crushed” Again; Module Prices Join in the Price Recession

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 3/22/23 – PVInsights. “Surging supply keep weakening polysilicon and solar modules. Polysilicon prices weakened this week as suppliers worried about a potential escalation of inventories amid rising supply, and Chinese buyers stayed their expectation…

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March 20, 2023

GLJ Research Updated Solar Industry Pitch Book – Updated 2023E Solar Thesis

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Have Updated our 35-Page Solar Deck. In short, the core themes detailed in our updated solar pitch book include: (1) our view that pol-Si will return to oversupply this year, crashing prices back down…

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March 19, 2023

Were You Aware that Sunnova is, as Per a 3/16/23 8-K Filing, Seeking a De Facto $3.3bn US Government Funded Bailout (and Their General Counsel Has Retired Effective Immediately)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Skimming Sunnova’s 8-K Filings this Morning, we Made a Significant Discovery. Skimming NOVA’s website today, we found a groundbreaking 8-K filing that seems to be flying under the radar. That is, we found that: (a)…

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March 15, 2023

Weekly Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/15/23) – Prices Flat Across the Board; US HRC Futures Stabilize, While US Rebar Prices Edge Lower

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices “Quiet” this Week After Big Declines; US HRC Prices Appear to be Stabilizing. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite…

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March 15, 2023

Weekly Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/15/23) – Domestic Chinese Poly-Si Prices “Tumble Again”; Wafer Prices, However, Perk Up

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 3/15/23 – PVInsights. “Polysilicon struggles between sales and pricing amid rising inventories and surge downside risks. Polysilicon prices tumbled on Wednesday as the disappointing stockpile drawdown raised fears of the glut and weighed on…

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March 10, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – US Money Supply is Officially Contracting for the First Time Since the Great Depression; Should I be Worried?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Should Investors Worry that US M2 is Officially Falling as the Velocity of M2 Stages a Violent Resurgence? As we’re seeing with Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB; NC), free money, while attractive when it’s flowing, can…

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March 9, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – Fire Side Chat w/ Top U.S. Solar Distribution Behemoth Sheds Light on Current State of U.S. Solar Market

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…

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March 8, 2023

Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/8/23) – Price Declines Accelerate Week-Over-Week, with 600mm UHP Prices Down -2.51%; US HRC Futures Prices “Stop Going Up”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices Give Back (Even More) of the Recent Gains. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite electrode substrates in RMB and…

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March 8, 2023

Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/8/23) – Poly-Si Prices “Re-Tumble”; Mono PERC Module Prices Also Weaken (now down -7.02% YTD)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 3/8/23 – PVInsights. “Polysilicon prices slide on surging inventory dumping tensions. Polysilicon prices tumbled on Wednesday as the market reeled from fears of another ramp-up in capacity expansion and a large build in China…

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February 28, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Disinflation Euphoria Hit With “Red-Hot” Inflation, Highest Services PCE Since 1984, & Upward Revisions to Oct.-Dec. Inflation Data

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fed’s Inflation Problem is Turning into a “Horror Movie”. As we have said many times, the Fed’s measuring stick for its 2% inflation target is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price index, and specifically…

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February 22, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – 4Q22 California Solar Initiative Update + U.S. Solar Import/Install Update + EU Solar Demand Update

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 12-13), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. Last week, price changes in China for…

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February 21, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Global Central Banks are “Unilaterally” Withdrawing Liquidity to Fight Inflation; This Will Likely Prove a Headwind to Risk Assets

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Global Central Banks Saw Their Combined Balance Sheets Fall -$237.1B 2/8/23-to-2/15/23, Led by the ECB’s -$127.0B Week-over-Week (“WoW”) Fall. We are of the mindset that the surge in global liquidity since the onset of COVID…

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February 13, 2023

What if We Told You We Had a “Magic Elixir” That Allows You to Predict the S&P 500 w/ 84.5% Accuracy?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What is the Best Measure of Liquidity, and is the Recent “Reckless” Infusion of Liquidity by the Fed the Real Reason Stocks Have Surged Since 2009? In short, looking at the .OLIQ G INDEX on…

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February 5, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Were Hedge Funds Caught on the Wrong Side of J. Powell and is the Violent Upside Seen YTD Set to Reverse Just as Fast as it Emerged?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

There has been an Earthquake at Quant Funds that Has Sent Meme Stocks (TSLA + AMC + COIN + GME + BBBY + etc.) Soaring; is it Sustainable? The bears have been decimated this year,…

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