Industry Notes


June 24, 2025

Fireside Chat w/ Largest U.S. Solar Distributor Sheds Light onto Coming 2Q25E Solar Earnings Season; and, is Europe “Souring” on Solar, Putting Global Prices at Risk?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How is Solar Demand Trending in the US into Q2 Earnings Season, and What’s going on in Europe? A number of market pundits are of the mindset a swath of solar companies will (likely) post…

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June 13, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for Apr. ’25 + Channel Checks from World’s Largest Solar Conference (SNEC in Shanghai) = Bird’s Eye View into what to Expect Ahead of 2Q25E Solar Industry Earnings

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

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June 6, 2025

Is There Still Risk to Being Short the Solar Resi Darlings (i.e., SunRun + SolarEdge) We Recently Upgraded… Near-Term?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… What is GLJ Research Hearing on What the Senate’s Version of President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” will Offer? Following discussions held today/yesterday with Washington D.C. government contacts on the Hill, in the below we…

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June 3, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for 1Q25 & Mar. ’25 + Channel Checks into European Inverter/Storage Demand + Fireside Chat w/ Largest U.S. Solar Distributor = The Fundamental Backdrop for SEDG/ENPH Appears to be Worsening Even Further

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from March’s CSI data dump, and what…

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May 6, 2025

How are US Consumers & Firms Reacting to Trump’s Tariffs – i.e., Is the U.S. Stock Market at Risk of (another) Acute Sell-Off (i.e., are Bears being offered a “gift” at current levels)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How are US Consumers and Firms Reacting to Trump’s Tariffs? Before we attempt to answer this question, we’ll remind our readers, in our 3/26/25 GLJ Macro Weekly update, based on: (1) what we saw as…

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April 24, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – Updated 1Q25A Solar Installs in Germany/China + Today’s Updated Local China Solar Poly/Wafer/Cell/Module Weekly Prices = Bird’s Eye View Into What to Expect for the Solar Parts Makers in 1H25E

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China for mono-grade…

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April 15, 2025

Are Investors Underestimating the Top Twelve “Casualties of Trump’s Trade War” in the Solar Sector?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Solar Investors Too Focused on an Overly Simplistic Binary, where “More Trump Tariffs = Bad” vs. “Less Trump Tariffs = Good”, when they Should be Focused on how Trump’s Tariffs will Impact Individual Solar…

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April 8, 2025

Fire-Side Chat with Largest Distributor of U.S. Solar Products Provides Insights into the Current State of the Domestic Solar Inverter/Battery Markets

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Update on the “State of the Union” of the US Solar Market. In what follows, we provide a Q&A we had, yesterday, with the largest distributor of solar products in the U.S. Fire-Side Chat with…

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March 26, 2025

GLJ Macro Weekly – With April Tax Payments Set to Imminently Commence Combined w/ a Lack of Share Buybacks as we Enter the Blackout Period (3rd Week of Mar.-to-Last Week of April) is a N-Term U.S. Liquidity Squeeze Going to Put a Damper on the Recent Stock Market Rally?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Recent U.S. Stock Market Rally on its “Last Leg”? With U.S. tax season nearing, meaning a material amount of liquidity is set to exit the U.S. market, combined with the share buyback blackout…

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March 24, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – Jan. California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Paint “Grim” Picture for 2025E U.S. Solar Demand + Update on Jan. + Feb. 2025 China Installs and 2024 Australian Solar Installs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Data out of California Last Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 1Q25E Earnings Season for the MLPE U.S. Inverter Bellwethers (i.e., SEDG + ENPH). In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from: (a) the California Solar Initiative…

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March 5, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for 4Q24 & Dec. ’24 Paints a Grim Portrait of SolarEdge/Enphase/Storage-Demand

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from December’s CSI data dump, and…

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February 18, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – What Do Our China Contacts Think of the CCP’s Shift to Compensating Renewable Energy Via Market-Determined Rates vs. its Current Fixed Mechanism?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

China Plans Mid-Year Change to the Way it Compensates Renewable Energy. Beginning June 1st, China plans to end its fixed pricing mechanism for renewable energy and require electricity generated from such sources to be sold…

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February 12, 2025

GLJ Macro Weekly – Despite all of His Rhetoric to the Contrary, is New U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Really Just “Janet Yellen 2.0” & Did Powell Just Pivot to a Hawkish Stance to “Counter” Him?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent About to Unleash the U.S. Liquidity Kraken? In general, U.S. liquidity defined as: Δ in Fed Bal. Sheet – Δ in Treasury General Account (“TGA”) – Δ in Reverse…

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January 14, 2025

Does the Path for US Treasury Rates (as well as the Pending Trump Administration) Suggest Solar Stocks Could See an Incremental -80.2% Downside (yes, you heard that right)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is It True that if One Can Accurately Predict the Path of US Treasury Yields, One Can Also, With Great Veracity, Predict What US Solar Stocks Will Do? As outlined in Ex. 1 below, since…

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January 12, 2025

GLJ Macro Weekly – Does the Drain of the Overnight Reverse Repo (“RRP”) Facility – Combined w/ Treasury Secretary Elect S. Bessent’s Hawkish Stance on T-Bills – Point to Problems Ahead for U.S. Equities in 1H25E?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

“It’s Liquidity that Moves Markets” – Stanley Druckenmiller. In this note, we look to address the n-term outlook for U.S. equities when considering: (a) the Overnight Reverse Repo (“RRP”) facility, or money created during the…

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