Our Research

Even the Tesla “Faithful” are Beginning to Realize the Stock Price Could be in (Big) Trouble Should its Car Sales Continue to Falter in 2025. When a Mag7 stock (i.e., TSLA) trades at 138x its…

How are US Consumers and Firms Reacting to Trump’s Tariffs? Before we attempt to answer this question, we’ll remind our readers, in our 3/26/25 GLJ Macro Weekly update, based on: (1) what we saw as…

What Happened? FSLR’s stock came under pressure yesterday following reduced 2025E guidance provided earlier this week, which was worse than expected as we warned in our 4/15 note titled: “Are Investors Underestimating the Top Twelve…

1Q25 Results/GLJ’s Take. Earlier this week, ENPH reported results that missed expectations on a number of fronts, namely: (a) when adjusting out safe harbor, 1Q25A “core” revenues of ~$302mn were below Consensus and guidance, (b)…

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China for mono-grade…

We have Updated our Bottoms-Up Tesla Earnings Driver Model and See a “Big Problem” w/ the Current 1Q25E non-GAAP EPS Consensus Est. In the following update, when considering the impact(s) from: (a) TSLA’s transition from…

Is Consensus Making a Grave Error in its Estimate for Tesla’s 2Q25E Global Auto Sales? The best investing opportunities arise when there are material dislocations between what Consensus expects vs. what is most likely to…

Are Solar Investors Too Focused on an Overly Simplistic Binary, where “More Trump Tariffs = Bad” vs. “Less Trump Tariffs = Good”, when they Should be Focused on how Trump’s Tariffs will Impact Individual Solar…

Update on the “State of the Union” of the US Solar Market. In what follows, we provide a Q&A we had, yesterday, with the largest distributor of solar products in the U.S. Fire-Side Chat with…

At the Margin, a Company’s Actual Results vs. Wall Street’s Estimates Determine the Path of the Stock Price. In this note, following recent on-the-ground U.S. solar residential market checks, we seek to answer if the…

GLJ Tesla 1Q25E and 2025E Delivery and Production Estimate Update. While we have, previously, generalized TSLA’s 1Q25E deliveries at 360K-370K, in what follows we provide the thought process around the evolution of our TESLA 1Q25E/2025E…

Is the Recent U.S. Stock Market Rally on its “Last Leg”? With U.S. tax season nearing, meaning a material amount of liquidity is set to exit the U.S. market, combined with the share buyback blackout…

Data out of California Last Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 1Q25E Earnings Season for the MLPE U.S. Inverter Bellwethers (i.e., SEDG + ENPH). In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from: (a) the California Solar Initiative…

Cameco Recently Reported Better Than Expected 4Q24A Results. A few weeks back, Cameco reported adjusted 4Q24 EPS of $0.36, besting Consensus’ $0.33. More important, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of C$524mn (+70% QoQ and +56%…

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from December’s CSI data dump, and…