October 28, 2026
Poly-Si still ~15% below the producers’ CNY 43,000/t floor with >560K MT of inventory; China TOPCon module prices ~9% below the RMB 0.79/W “minimum” (i.e., price discipline is not passing through). Poly-Si: futures bounce, spot…
October 28, 2026
We are below the Street on 2027–28 estimates and still buyers. At $9.08 the market is paying for a sand company sitting on the floor of its cost curve, and is getting the 731 MW…
October 28, 2026
Enphase is down ~18% pre-market; we warned this would happen two days ago in our preview note; below, we detail our takeaways from last night’s results/earnings call. Enphase reported 3Q26 revenue of $293.3mn, in line…
October 26, 2026
We have updated our bottom-up earnings driver model for Enphase to reflect a number of recent channel checks, as well as recent data from the California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) and European pricing/share data from BWG….
October 23, 2026
Bottom Line Three prices moved against the people building AI (i.e., sales prices + cost of fund it + cost to build it), and they have been moving that way for months: what customers pay…
October 22, 2026
We spoke with a senior manager at Majestic Steel USA, one of the larger independent flat-rolled service centers in the country. The conversation was useful precisely because it was unsentimental. Nobody is calling a top….
October 22, 2026
Adj. EPS of $0.48 beat cons of $0.44. Gross margin of 19.6% beat 17.8%. Free cash flow of +$1.5bn landed against a Street est. of -$5bn. We are not going to argue w/ those numbers….
October 21, 2026
Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$33,725/ton = $5.23/kg) – down -1.82% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 10/21/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…
October 19, 2026
Not for lack of wanting to spend. Land, power, moratoria and rates are the brakes. Reiterate SELL on VRT. Bottom Line A channel check dinner held this past Sunday night with a senior executive of…
October 19, 2026
Twenty-eight days ago we wrote that coil hadn’t read the July guide, that the Street hadn’t read the coil, and that Cleveland-Cliffs would come in materially above consensus as its lagged and spot contract buckets…
October 15, 2026
After an extensive model revamp, supported by our extensive Q2-to-Q3 bridge analysis detailed below, compared to consensus we are $0.14 below on EPS, 128bp below on gross margin, and 70% Below on EBIT; Energy’s 13.7…
October 13, 2026
In March, the Chief Sales Officer of one of America’s largest solar distributors told us things would pick up. In June, he said the coming months should help. In what follows, we detail what he’s…
October 13, 2026
Businesses are spending on AI like it’s 1999. Households are answering surveys like it’s 2008. We are not calling a recession. We are calling concentration, and concentration has a way of becoming the story later….
October 9, 2026
Reiterate SELL, $188 PT. Bernstein’s hyperscaler checks call the quality concerns overblown. Its own exhibits describe the problem. We came back from Yotta (28-30 September) with secondhand chatter that Vertiv’s liquid-cooling equipment was having quality…
October 7, 2026
China’s polysilicon cuts are talk until they show up in the meeting minutes. First Solar is at 10.9x trailing earnings and the sell-side cannot agree on why. Key Takeaways Nothing new in price, which is…