Our Research


October 16, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly: California Solar Initiative Data Dump for Jul./Aug. ’25 – Do Historical Correlations Imply (Sizeable) Risk to ENPH’s & SEDG’s Upcoming Q3 Earnings Reports?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Solar/Storage Markets. Over the 3Q15-to-2Q25 period (i.e., 40 quarters of data),…

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October 13, 2025

Canadian Solar: Is Wall Street Sleeping Walking Past what will Likely Prove to be an “Unfortunate” Q3?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Q3 Preview – More Trick than Treat. Once again, the market seems content to sleepwalk – this time straight into what looks like an unfortunate Q3 for CSIQ. For those who actually read 10-Ks and…

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October 7, 2025

Fireside Chat w/ Large Solar Distributor Sheds Light on Current “State of the Union” for Solar Sector Headed into Q3 Results

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What is the Largest Distributor of Solar Products Seeing into Year End? In the below, we provide a Q&A we had, yesterday, with the largest distributor of U.S. solar products in the world – and…

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October 3, 2025

As Expected, Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Beat Consensus; US Sales Jump +29% YoY; But, the “Hangover” from the Party Appears to Just be Getting Started

By Gordon L. Johnson II

End of Tax Credit Pushes Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries to Record High. Everyone knew the U.S. would be strong due to demand pull-forward, but just how strong was the question. Yesterday, we got the answer. TSLA…

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September 29, 2025

China’s PV Installations Fell -55% YoY in Aug., after Falling -45%/-40% in Jul./Jun.; this Collapse Foretells Big Problems Ahead for Canadian Solar and Jinko Solar

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Well, That’s Not Good for Canadian Solar and Jinko Solar. China’s August 2025 solar PV installations (Ex. 1) were cut in half versus last year, coming in at just 7.6GWac. Importantly, if this pace continues,…

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September 25, 2025

GLJ Macro Update – Looking at the “Three Horsemen” of U.S. Equity Market Momentum (CTA Flows + Vol Fund Flows + Liquidity), What’s in Store for the Next Few Days/Weeks?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s the Macro Trading Set-Up Headed into September Month-End? In general, into month-end, we believe the market is being steered by three forces – and none of them are fundamentals. That is, barring a surprise…

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September 24, 2025

Metals & Mining Snapshot (“The Daily Smelt”): September 24

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME metal prices mostly lower vs. previous close. Copper flat at $4.50/lb; Nickel +0.19% to $7.73/lb; Aluminum -0.19% to $1.32/lb; Zinc -0.35% to $1.39/lb; Lead -0.46% to $1.08/lb; Gold -0.07% to $3,762/oz; silver -0.33% to $44/oz;…

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September 23, 2025

Those Assuming Third-Party-Ownership (“TPO”) Solar Installs Grow in 2026E May be in for a “Rude Awakening”; PT Edges Higher to $23.49/shr from $19.80/shr Prior; SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Final Word. Bears have been reluctant to press ahead of both: (1) potential demand pull-forward in Q3 and Q4 as the 25D credit phaseout approaches, as well as (2) calls that TPO solar installations will…

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September 17, 2025

Wall Street’s Q3 Delivery Estimates Remain Irresponsibly Low; but if you’re a TSLA Bull, Q3 Earnings are Shaping up to be Scary, with Q4 Looking Downright “Terrifying”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Consensus hasn’t bothered to update its 3Q25E Tesla delivery estimate since early July – which tells you all you need to know about the rigor of Wall Street coverage here. We believe the Street’s Q3…

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September 15, 2025

Metals & Mining Snapshot (“The Daily Smelt”): September 15

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Inaugural Metals & Mining Daily Snapshot. Welcome to the first edition of our Metals & Mining Daily Snapshot. Starting tomorrow, you’ll have this in your inbox at 7am every morning – think of it…

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September 8, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative Data Dump for June ’25 + Wood Mackenzie/SEIA Updated 2025E Solar Forecast

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

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September 4, 2025

Steel Industry Monitor: Waiting for an ‘Upturn’, While Reality Keeps Delivering ‘Flatlines’

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Inside? Twenty-three exhibits capturing the core industry trends that will likely dictate North American steel pricing in the months ahead. Conclusion. Spot HRC prices have held mostly steady over the past two weeks, but…

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August 29, 2025

Is Cameco’s 2025 McArthur River Production Cut a “Goldilocks” Scenario Headed into Next Weeks’ World Nuclear Association Symposium in London?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The World Nuclear Association’s flagship gathering, the World Nuclear Symposium (“WNA”), kicks off next week. Historically, this is when much of the forward-years’ contracting for U₃O₈ supply gets done. The timing of Cameco’s production cut…

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August 27, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – A Detailed Look into Global Solar Demand (by Country) and What it Suggests for the Solar Sector in 2H25E & 2026E

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Global Solar Demand: An Update. We’ve reviewed the patchwork of government data, trade association reports, media anecdotes, and BloombergNEF estimates to frame where global solar demand stands heading into 2H25E and 2026E. The popular narrative…

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August 22, 2025

Q2 Review: Bad Goes to Worse (as GLJ warned); But is the Pain Over?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Canadian Solar: Are Investors Looking the Wrong Way? Canadian Solar reported another disappointing quarter, with Q2 revenue and earnings below expectations and management guiding Q3 and 2025 materially lower. While many of the “China ADR…

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