Our Research


June 16, 2025

GLJ Research Updated Tesla Delivery Forecasts and Model Estimates

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Re-Publishing Our Tesla 2025E-26E Estimates and Model for Maintenance Purposes. In this note (Ex. 1-4) we provide our most recent estimates for TSLA. More specifically, we update our quarterly: (a) delivery ests., (b) revenue ests.,…

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June 13, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for Apr. ’25 + Channel Checks from World’s Largest Solar Conference (SNEC in Shanghai) = Bird’s Eye View into what to Expect Ahead of 2Q25E Solar Industry Earnings

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge, as well as U.S. Storage Market. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from…

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June 12, 2025

Westinghouse’s Participation in the Construction of Two Czech Reactors Adds US$170mn to Cameco’s Q2 EBITDA; Yet, U3O8 Spot Risks Demand Caution – Sell the News?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Things Just Keep Getting Better for Cameco. Cameco’s 49% share in Westinghouse is now expected to boost its Q2 results on the back of Westinghouse’s participation in the construction of two new nuclear reactors at…

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June 10, 2025

Tesla’s Week 11 China Sales Collapse Further (& miss Consensus by -36.5%), Falling -33.5%/37.4% WoW/QoQ, Respectively; and, What to Expect this Thursday at Tesla’s Austin “Robotaxi” Event

By Gordon L. Johnson II

It’s Now Clear… Tesla has a Demand Problem in China. In this note we detail the collapse in TSLA’s China sales year-to-date (“YTD”), based on both new monthly and weekly data released yesterday/today, despite: (a)…

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June 6, 2025

Is There Still Risk to Being Short the Solar Resi Darlings (i.e., SunRun + SolarEdge) We Recently Upgraded… Near-Term?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… What is GLJ Research Hearing on What the Senate’s Version of President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” will Offer? Following discussions held today/yesterday with Washington D.C. government contacts on the Hill, in the below we…

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June 3, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for 1Q25 & Mar. ’25 + Channel Checks into European Inverter/Storage Demand + Fireside Chat w/ Largest U.S. Solar Distributor = The Fundamental Backdrop for SEDG/ENPH Appears to be Worsening Even Further

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from March’s CSI data dump, and what…

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May 30, 2025

We Upgrade Sunrun to HOLD from SELL on: (a) Recent Collapse in Share Price + (b) Risk that Senate Budget Bill Language Favors Resi Solar = Risk of N-Term/Swift Move Higher in Shares; L-Term, we Still See Core Business as Structurally Flawed (due to RUN understating the O&M expenses associated with its SPVs)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We are Upgrading Sunrun to HOLD from SELL as the “Solar Friendly” Senate is Set to Return from Adjournment Jun. 2nd (i.e., Monday). While we continue to see RUN’s business as structurally flawed (given our…

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May 30, 2025

We Upgrade SolarEdge to HOLD from SELL on: (a) Recent Collapse in Share Price + (b) Risk that Senate Budget Bill Language Favors Resi Solar = Risk of N-Term/Swift Move Higher in Shares; L-Term, we Still See Core Business as Structurally Flawed (due to SEDG’s microinveters being too expensive/its lack of innovation in the battery storage market)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We are Upgrading SolarEdge to HOLD from SELL as the “Solar Friendly” Senate is Set to Return from Adjournment Jun. 2nd (i.e., Monday). While we continue to see SEDG’s business as structurally flawed (given our view…

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May 29, 2025

A Simple Comparable Company Analysis Suggests Nippon is Overpaying for U.S. Steel by (at least) 63%-to-612%; Our Bet that Trump Would ‘Cave’ was Right (i.e., it’s time to move on); Downgrade from BUY to SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In the Words of Porky Pig… “Ba-Deep, Ba-Deep, That’s All Folks”. We downgrade U.S. Steel’s shares from BUY to SELL, and strongly recommend anyone who purchased when we upgraded to BUY 9/9/24 (when the stock…

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May 21, 2025

Does the Bull Thesis on SolarEdge Rest with the Idea that Because the Stock is Down a Lot + the Company Put Up One Quarter of Better Than Expected (yet still negative) Earnings = It’s a BUY? Our 2025E Yr-End PT Edges Higher to $6.90 from $3.90 Prior

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge is Up +70.7% Over the Past Month vs. +15.2% for the S&P 500; is the Move Justified? A few weeks back, SEDG reported 1Q25A sales that beat Cons. by +7.5% and GLJe by 11%….

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May 7, 2025

Tesla’s Week 5 China Sales Miss Consensus by a “Whopping” -44.7% & its European April Car Registrations Plunge (Falling -65.1%, -59.5%, & -45.9%, YoY, in the Key Markets of the U.K., France, & Germany); What’s it Mean for 2Q25E Deliveries vs. Wall Street’s Current Estimate?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Even the Tesla “Faithful” are Beginning to Realize the Stock Price Could be in (Big) Trouble Should its Car Sales Continue to Falter in 2025. When a Mag7 stock (i.e., TSLA) trades at 138x its…

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May 6, 2025

How are US Consumers & Firms Reacting to Trump’s Tariffs – i.e., Is the U.S. Stock Market at Risk of (another) Acute Sell-Off (i.e., are Bears being offered a “gift” at current levels)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How are US Consumers and Firms Reacting to Trump’s Tariffs? Before we attempt to answer this question, we’ll remind our readers, in our 3/26/25 GLJ Macro Weekly update, based on: (1) what we saw as…

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May 1, 2025

First Solar 1Q25 Review: Upgrade to BUY from HOLD on Assumption that 45x Credits Remain Intact & “Guidance Revision Medicine” Has Been Taken; PT Adjusts Higher to $172.37/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Happened? FSLR’s stock came under pressure yesterday following reduced 2025E guidance provided earlier this week, which was worse than expected as we warned in our 4/15 note titled: “Are Investors Underestimating the Top Twelve…

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April 25, 2025

Does: (a) Cheaper String Inverters with MLPE-Like Functionality + (b) a Shift to Lower-Margin Battery-Based Systems + (c) a Pending Flood of Chinese Inverters/Solar-Storage-Systems into Europe + (d) an Exhaustion of Enphase’s High Margin NEM 2.0 California Backlog = >30% Incremental Downside in Enphase’s Shares Thru 2025E?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

1Q25 Results/GLJ’s Take. Earlier this week, ENPH reported results that missed expectations on a number of fronts, namely: (a) when adjusting out safe harbor, 1Q25A “core” revenues of ~$302mn were below Consensus and guidance, (b)…

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