Metals & Mining


November 26, 2025

Metals & Mining Weekly: Prices Likely Have Further Upside from Here on Lackluster Imports + Seasonal Maintenance (steel stocks likely to continue to outperform)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line Current Situation. Over the last two weeks, spot HRC has done exactly what the setup suggested – it’s drifted higher, up roughly 5%, with today’s +5.4% d/d surge to $900/st marking the strongest…

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November 21, 2025

Metals & Mining Weekly: Does Surge in SMU Mill Order Index + Rising US HRC Lead Times = Light at the End of the ‘Steel Fundamentals Tunnel’?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mixed vs. Yesterday’s Close. Copper -0.06% to $4.87/lb; aluminum +0.15% to $1.37/lb; nickel +0.37% to $7.54/lb; zinc +0.01% to $1.43/lb; lead +0.13% to $1.10/lb; gold -0.02% to $4,077/oz; silver -1.35% to $50.66/oz; platinum…

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November 13, 2025

Metals & Mining Weekly Update: US Spot HRC Prices Are Edging Higher; Yet Higher Domestic Output & Weak Demand Suggest Typical Seasonal Upside will be “Capped”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher vs. Yesterday’s Close. Copper +0.22% to $4.91/lb; aluminum +0.44% to $1.38/lb; nickel -0.57% to $7.71/lb; zinc -0.18% to $1.44/lb; lead +0.48% to $1.12/lb; gold +1.66% to $4,195/oz; silver +3.96% to $53.25/oz;…

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November 6, 2025

Metals & Mining Weekly Update: US Sheet Demand Remains a “Problem” and Industry Insiders Remain Skeptical Headed into 2026E

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher vs. Yesterday’s Close. Copper +0.24% to $4.84/lb; aluminum +0.89% to $1.37/lb; nickel flat at $7.68/lb; zinc +0.14% to $1.44/lb; lead -0.49% to $1.11/lb; gold +0.22% to $3,988/oz; silver +0.56% to…

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September 24, 2025

Metals & Mining Snapshot (“The Daily Smelt”): September 24

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME metal prices mostly lower vs. previous close. Copper flat at $4.50/lb; Nickel +0.19% to $7.73/lb; Aluminum -0.19% to $1.32/lb; Zinc -0.35% to $1.39/lb; Lead -0.46% to $1.08/lb; Gold -0.07% to $3,762/oz; silver -0.33% to $44/oz;…

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September 15, 2025

Metals & Mining Snapshot (“The Daily Smelt”): September 15

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Inaugural Metals & Mining Daily Snapshot. Welcome to the first edition of our Metals & Mining Daily Snapshot. Starting tomorrow, you’ll have this in your inbox at 7am every morning – think of it…

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September 4, 2025

Steel Industry Monitor: Waiting for an ‘Upturn’, While Reality Keeps Delivering ‘Flatlines’

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Inside? Twenty-three exhibits capturing the core industry trends that will likely dictate North American steel pricing in the months ahead. Conclusion. Spot HRC prices have held mostly steady over the past two weeks, but…

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December 28, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – What if the Same “Catalyst” that Sparked the Record 4Q23 Stock Market Surge is Set to Force the Fed’s Hand on Resetting Rate Cut Expectations (Meaning a Sell-Off is Near)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Janet Yellen Intentionally Squeeze the Long-Duration Bond Shorts with her 10/31/23 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”), and is it About to Make the Fed’s Job a Lot Harder? By way of background, we remind our…

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December 13, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – What Does the Nov. Acceleration in Core Services Inflation + The Loosest Financial Conditions, Currently, Since Before the Fed Began Hiking Rates = Mean for Whether Powell will Lean Dovish or Hawkish Today?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How’s Inflation Trending, and Just How Loose Are Financial Conditions at Present Ahead of the Fed’s Rate Decision/Powell’s Testimony Later Today? In this note, in detail, we analyze yesterday’s CPI inflation report, and also look…

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November 19, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Is the Fed About to, De Facto, Use the Remaining ~$936bn in Reverse Repo Facility Reserves to “Spray” Stocks w/ Fresh-Cash Through (at least) Mar. 2024?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, we detail why, with last week’s release of the US Treasury’s latest Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QTR”), the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury, through 1Q24E, will likely…

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June 16, 2023

Fireside Chat 2.0 with U.S. Steel Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on What to Expect Over the Coming Months

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Fireside Chat with Steel Industry Veteran Provides Insights into what to Expect Looking Forward. In light of the forward June U.S. spot HRC contracted price falling -1.4% over the past month (Ex. 1), Chinese spot HRC…

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June 16, 2023

Fireside Chat 2.0 with U.S. Steel Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on What to Expect Over the Coming Months

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Fireside Chat with Steel Industry Veteran Provides Insights into what to Expect Looking Forward. In light of the forward June U.S. spot HRC contracted price falling -1.4% over the past month (Ex. 1), Chinese spot HRC…

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May 19, 2023

Is Iron Ore the Next “Big Short” – i.e., Looking at a Plethora of Chinese Data, is the Long-Fabled $20/mt Iron Ore Price Back on the Table?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Has the Greatest Iron Ore (“IO”) Commodity Consumption Bubble in History Burst, Suggesting Underappreciated Risk to IO Prices in 2H23/2024? In the analysis put fourth within this report, we look to answer the question posed…

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May 10, 2023

GLJ Metals & Mining Weekly – J. Powell’s Claim Red-Hot Rent CPI Will Simply “Vanish” Appears Wishful Based on Comments from Landlords (Even for April)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Comments from Landlords and Tenants Suggest J. Powell’s Prediction “Sizzling” Rent CPI Inflation will Vanish in 2H23 May Prove Aspirational. Rather it’s comments from the largest publicly-traded landlords of single-family homes in the US, or…

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May 2, 2023

GLJ Inflation Watch Update – Sticky Inflation is Becoming Entrenched: Core PCE Price Index Stubbornly High at ~5% for 6 Months; Is the Fed Failing, Meaning a Hawkish +25bps/No Pause is on Deck for this Wednesday’s Fed Meeting?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Large Asset Manager Provides Insights into What One Should do If the Fed is Going to Hike 25bps and Signal No Pause Yet this Wednesday. In our discussion with one of the largest U.S. hedge…

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