December 17, 2024
Tesla’s Stock has Been on a Tear; is this Indicative of Better Fundamentals, or Simply Options Market Activity/Manipulation? Since 10/23/24, or when TSLA reported slightly better-than-expected 3Q24 results, the stock has surged +116.7% higher; this…
October 24, 2024
Tesla Reports Strong Unaudited Q3 Numbers, and Guides to Record Q4 Delivery Growth vs. Tepid Delivery Data Thus Far. Yesterday, after the close, TSLA reported rev/adj.-EPS of $25.2bn/$0.72 vs. Cons. $25.4bn/$0.60 (GLJe $25.4bn/$0.49). Furthermore, TSLA…
October 23, 2024
Early This AM We Got the Age-Old Question Around Tesla From a Prominent Financial Reporter. Around 3:13am this morning, while GLJ was tending to 4.8-month old GLJ Jr. (for the 3rd time since going to…
October 17, 2024
We See a Significant Q3 Adj.-EPS Miss on Deck, as Well as Q3 Free Cash Flow of -$18mn vs. the Current Cons. Est. of +$1.635bn. Based on the analysis herein, we believe TSLA is slated…
September 24, 2024
Things Would Be Even Worse Without TSLA’s 1.99% 6yr APR Financing Offer in U.S./Canada. Based on the latest China data from early this morning (discussed below), updates from the 6 countries that report daily sales…
September 24, 2024
Things Would Be Even Worse Without TSLA’s 1.99% 6yr APR Financing Offer in U.S./Canada. Based on the latest China data from early this morning (discussed below), updates from the 6 countries that report daily sales…
July 23, 2024
Admittedly, 2Q24E is Not an Easy Quarter to Model for Tesla. In the below, we consider various moving parts in TSLA’s 2Q24E model, including: (a) 57.146K more cars sold in 2Q24E QoQ (a positive), (b)…
July 15, 2024
What Does Our Bridge to Tesla’s 2Q24E EPS and Free-Cash-Flow Say vs. the Current Consensus Estimates? In the below, we provide our bridge to TSLA’s 2Q24E GAAP/non-GAAP EPS and free-cash-flow (“FCF”) when considering: (a) TSLA’s…
July 1, 2024
As Has Become Custom, Ahead of Fundamentally Bad News, Tesla’s Stock Rallies. Despite what we expect to be a sizeable 2Q24E delivery miss when TSLA reports numbers tomorrow (i.e., 416.027K [Europe – 70.463K; U.S. –…
April 22, 2024
Tesla Took a Slashing to the Price of its New Cars All Through this Past Weekend. In the analysis that follows, using estimates for the number of cars TSLA is expected to sell in each…
April 16, 2024
Tesla’s 1Q24E Revs/non-GAAP EPS Appear Set to Miss Wall Street’s Estimate… by a “Nautical Mile”; But What About 2Q24E? After spending the better part of this past weekend updating our bottom-up TSLA revenue driver model…
January 25, 2024
So What Happened, and Why are we Calling the World’s Richest Man a “Sleazy” Used Car Salesman? In this note, we provide what we see as the eight key takeaways from TSLA’s just-reported 4Q23 results,…
January 23, 2024
So, What’s Up Next for Tesla and Electric Vehicle “Jesus” Elon Musk? With a cult-like following among retail investors (see here), exacerbated by the fact that the arguably most-followed sell-side analyst on TSLA came out…
January 17, 2024
So… are Last Night’s Tesla Car Price Cuts a Big Deal? In this note, ahead of a full update to our bottom-up TSLA earnings driver model due out later this week, we use a back-of-the-envelope…
January 12, 2024
Did Tesla, with its Recent Model 3 “Highland” Refresh, which Pundits Predicted Would Reinvigorate Demand in China (link), Just Slash its China Car Prices Just 12 Days into 1Q24? In short, the answer, resoundingly, is…