Company Notes


October 3, 2025

As Expected, Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Beat Consensus; US Sales Jump +29% YoY; But, the “Hangover” from the Party Appears to Just be Getting Started

By Gordon L. Johnson II

End of Tax Credit Pushes Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries to Record High. Everyone knew the U.S. would be strong due to demand pull-forward, but just how strong was the question. Yesterday, we got the answer. TSLA…

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October 1, 2025

Primoris (PRIM, BUY): 3Q25 Preview – Gas-fired upside amidst Matador caution, PT to $168

By Austin Wang

Management continues to emphasize a strong ’26 opportunity-set for continued utility-scale solar gains, but we believe investors expect potential gas generation commentary to drive a possible +HSD % move from these levels. Tweaking our Gas…

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September 29, 2025

China’s PV Installations Fell -55% YoY in Aug., after Falling -45%/-40% in Jul./Jun.; this Collapse Foretells Big Problems Ahead for Canadian Solar and Jinko Solar

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Well, That’s Not Good for Canadian Solar and Jinko Solar. China’s August 2025 solar PV installations (Ex. 1) were cut in half versus last year, coming in at just 7.6GWac. Importantly, if this pace continues,…

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September 28, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL) – Is this Moat Micro-Soft? Reiterate SELL

By Austin Wang

We view Microsoft’s announcement of a new in-house thermal management system as a catalyst on an increasingly negative event path for Vertiv. While our competitors have been quick to point out the Microsoft solutions most…

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September 23, 2025

Those Assuming Third-Party-Ownership (“TPO”) Solar Installs Grow in 2026E May be in for a “Rude Awakening”; PT Edges Higher to $23.49/shr from $19.80/shr Prior; SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Final Word. Bears have been reluctant to press ahead of both: (1) potential demand pull-forward in Q3 and Q4 as the 25D credit phaseout approaches, as well as (2) calls that TPO solar installations will…

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September 22, 2025

Initiate Argan (AGX) at HOLD: Staffing “Show-me” Story Limits Further Revisions

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage of Argan at HOLD with a PT of $251 (~3% downside) as investor expectations have run ahead of management’s ability to scale into what we agree is an generational demand for generation…

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September 22, 2025

Initiate Primoris (PRIM) at BUY: The Generation E&C – Incremental Crews Win in Gas & Solar

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage of Primoris Services at BUY with a PT of $160 to highlight a shift in the utility capex cycle towards generation, and emphasize how PRIM’s strong market position and unique staffing capabilities…

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September 17, 2025

Wall Street’s Q3 Delivery Estimates Remain Irresponsibly Low; but if you’re a TSLA Bull, Q3 Earnings are Shaping up to be Scary, with Q4 Looking Downright “Terrifying”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Consensus hasn’t bothered to update its 3Q25E Tesla delivery estimate since early July – which tells you all you need to know about the rigor of Wall Street coverage here. We believe the Street’s Q3…

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September 4, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): Mitsubishi goes Heavy on Gas – emerging positive event-path for GEV? PT to $757, Reiterate BUY

By Austin Wang

We view near-term underperformance as a buying opportunity ahead of a September conference season where management could announce a matching expansion. Reiterate BUY, PT to $757 – +31% upside from current levels. +30% capacity expansion…

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August 29, 2025

Is Cameco’s 2025 McArthur River Production Cut a “Goldilocks” Scenario Headed into Next Weeks’ World Nuclear Association Symposium in London?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The World Nuclear Association’s flagship gathering, the World Nuclear Symposium (“WNA”), kicks off next week. Historically, this is when much of the forward-years’ contracting for U₃O₈ supply gets done. The timing of Cameco’s production cut…

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August 22, 2025

Q2 Review: Bad Goes to Worse (as GLJ warned); But is the Pain Over?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Canadian Solar: Are Investors Looking the Wrong Way? Canadian Solar reported another disappointing quarter, with Q2 revenue and earnings below expectations and management guiding Q3 and 2025 materially lower. While many of the “China ADR…

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August 21, 2025

How Do Tesla’s Fundamentals Stack Up vs. its Magnificent 6 Peers Over the Next 5-to-10 Years?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Tesla’s Valuation Justified When Applying the “Heroic” Assumptions from its Biggest Bulls? In this note, applying the public forecasts from some of Tesla’s most ardent bulls (i.e., Morgan Stanley), we attempt to address why…

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August 19, 2025

Initiate Vertiv (VRT) at SELL – High-Density Competition in a High-Density Future

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage of Vertiv with a SELL rating and a $112 PT (-17% downside). While VRT has enjoyed a largely justified multi-year re-rate on the back of AI infrastructure tailwinds, we believe the stock…

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August 15, 2025

US Treasury Guidance on President Trump’s Executive Order Essentially Excludes Resi Solar from Sig. Harm; Upgrade to HOLD as N-Term, we No Longer See a SELL Rating as Fitting

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The US Treasury Has Issued Guidance… and it Couldn’t Be Better News for the Residential Solar Space. While many thought President Trump’s Treasury department was going to kill the loophole that allowed residential solar companies…

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August 12, 2025

Q2 Review: Solid Results and Outlook; U.S. Government Offers “Helping Hand” Yet Again; PT Rises to $214.06; BUY

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Solid Results/Outlook. FSLR’s reported solid Q2 results, with both revs and EPS ahead of expectations. And, while the company recorded negative net bookings in 1H25 (due to 1.1GW of cancellations in Q2), FSLR has since…

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