August 20, 2026
A record backlog does not pay anyone until it ships. Fluence has to put 47% of its fiscal year through one quarter, out of two factories that just failed, and our rebuilt model says doing…
August 18, 2026
The stock is not down 25% this year because the quarter was bad (it was). It is down because the robotaxi finally produced data — and this month’s Cybercab debut in Austin will put that…
August 17, 2026
Bottom Line: Our favorite solar science project printed a headline “beat” on every line the company would prefer you look at — and the stock fell -10.6% the next day anyway, because the market is…
August 4, 2026
Bottom Line Following NXT’s F1Q27 print (7/30) and the July drawdown, we hosted a Fireside Chat with CFO Chuck Boynton and IR. The call resolved the quarter’s three optical controversies — the FQ1-to-FQ2 tariff bridge,…
August 3, 2026
Nextpower printed record revenue ($935mn, +8% y/y), a 37% adjusted gross margin, $233mn of adjusted EBITDA, $1.20 of adjusted EPS, a record >$5.5bn backlog, and raised the bottom of every FY27 guidance range — and…
July 31, 2026
On our adjusted numbers — which adjd the $89mn of one-time IEEPA tariff refunds back out of gross profit — FSLR beat consensus on every profit line ($3.10 adj. EPS vs. $2.83; $509mn adj. EBITDA…
July 29, 2026
Ex the one-time tariff windfall, GAAP earnings flipped to a loss; the “beat” was a check from U.S. Customs. We’d fade it. Reiterate SELL. Bottom Line Enphase reported 2Q26 revenue of $291.9mn (vs. $292.1mn street),…
July 28, 2026
Bottom Line Heading into Enphase’s 2Q26 print, we find ourselves in the increasingly lonely position of being below consensus on essentially every line that matters. We are at $279mn in revenue (Street: $292mn) — a…
July 27, 2026
The July remittance cycle “stabilized” — at June’s deteriorated levels. Cumulative losses on 2024-vintage paper now sit at 40–68% of pool runoff, KBRA just downgraded 20 Sunnova classes in one sweep, ENFIN is one-to-two cycles…
July 24, 2026
Bottom Line CLF reported 2Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $286mn yesterday morning, ahead of the $260mn the Street was carrying, tripling the 1Q level and marking the company’s best quarter in two years. Free cash flow…
July 23, 2026
Bottom Line The margin call, made in advance. Our preview carried 17.0% gross margin versus the Street’s 19.4% — 240bp below consensus, the widest gap anywhere in our model — built by stripping ~$710mn of…
July 20, 2026
Bottom Line Tesla reports 2Q26 results on Wednesday, July 22, after the close (call: 5:30pm ET). The bulls arrive with a genuinely large number: 480,126 deliveries, +25% yoy and +34% qoq — the best second…
July 15, 2026
Channel check: a 49-minute conversation yesterday with Chris Shelton, Fluence’s Head of Investor Relations. Reiterate BUY; YE2026 PT $26. Bottom Line. FLNC is down 25% in the nine trading sessions since our 7/1/26 initiation at…
July 14, 2026
The new reason to own Tesla is that SpaceX buys it — soon. This note is about the word “soon.” Every mechanical step of this deal — the committee, the filing, the vote, Beijing, the…
July 10, 2026
Sunrun’s AI pilot has no filed economics, no named buyer, and no owner for the GPU decay — but IR is circulating a 1-2 year payback by callback. We value cash flows, not phone calls….