Company Notes


June 24, 2026

Sunrun (RUN) – 16 Gigawatts of Marketing, ~4 Gigawatts of Battery, and Not Much Else

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What you Need to Know. This morning Sunrun, Renew Home and Tesla announced a framework to deliver “more than 16 GW” of flexible capacity to hyperscalers and utilities. The number is engineered for a press…

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June 18, 2026

Minimill 2Q26 Guides: A High-Quality Miss and a Low-Quality Beat

By Gordon L. Johnson II

STLD “misses” and NUE “beats” — but strip the one-offs and both print light; the read-through for Cleveland-Cliffs (“CLF”) and for 2H HRC is more nuanced than the headlines, with the import data the swing…

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June 18, 2026

Vertiv (VRT, HOLD) – Colocation + Cooling OEM checks demand a new look – Upgrade to HOLD

By Austin Wang

We are upgrading Vertiv to HOLD – CoolIt’s recent breakthrough with a 15kW cold plate extends the viability of Vertiv’s single-phase DC cooling offering well into the 2030’s even as we reevaluate our thesis after…

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June 12, 2026

Tesla (TSLA) – 2Q26E Deliveries Preview: We Model the Beat, Yet We’re Still Short

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Conclusion With roughly three weeks of the quarter still to run, our model points to 2Q26E global deliveries of 426,017 units — up 19.0% sequentially from 1Q26’s 358,023 and up 10.9% against the 384,122…

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June 9, 2026

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) — Upgrading to HOLD from SELL: Supply Squeeze Overwhelms Seasonality; 3Q26 Consensus ASP of $1,132 Looks Stale vs. Our $1,184 on the Current HRC Curve — PT to $15.01 (~18% upside from yesterday’s close)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Executive Summary We are upgrading Cleveland-Cliffs (“CLF”) to HOLD from SELL and raising our 12-month price target to $15.01 (from $9.03 prior). The upgrade reflects a material change in the evidence since our May 5,…

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June 3, 2026

Nextpower (NXT) – Prevalon: The Right Pivot, But Largely in the Price — Reiterate Buy, Stay Disciplined on Entry

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line We reiterate our BUY rating on Nextpower (“NXT”) and raise our year-end 2026 price target to $149.44 (from $147) to reflect the strategically sound, accretive acquisition of Prevalon Energy. We do so, however,…

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June 1, 2026

Modine Manufacturing (MOD, BUY) – Hyperscaler LTA sets the floor for incremental margins, per our checks – PT to $428

By Austin Wang

Modine Manufacturing’s recent F4Q update saw the OEM raise its LT 2028 guidance beyond its current capacity while announcing a volume commitment with an existing hyperscaler customer. We spoke to private co-vendors and competitors to…

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June 1, 2026

nVent Electric (NVT, BUY) – Partnership with Siemens & Fluence emphasizes strategic alignment with hyperscalers on Vera Rubin – Reiterate BUY

By Austin Wang

We review the possible strategic implications of this morning’s announcement of Vera Rubin product cooperation with Siemens (SIE GY, not rated) and Fluence (FLNC, not rated), including likely hyperscaler target customers based on our channel…

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June 1, 2026

What ENPH and SEDG Are Actually Worth: Fair Value at “Reasonable” Solid State Transformer (“SST”) Probabilities

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Where Fair Value Lands Sum-of-the-parts fair value built on GLJ earnings estimates: ENPH $26.55 (61% below current $68.66), SEDG $20.35 (74% below current $77.08). Our valuation is anchored on GLJ’s published EPS forecasts (ENPH: $1.45…

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May 27, 2026

First Solar (FSLR) – Upgrade to BUY from HOLD: Cancellation Risk Resolved, CuRe Launched in Perrysburg, 232 Catalyst Now Loaded; PT to $315 (Prior $207.82)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis FSLR 1Q26 Earnings: The Cancellation Cliff Is Over, the Bear Case Is Broken, and the 232 Catalyst Is Locked/Loaded The headline: we were wrong on FSLR. When we moved this name to HOLD…

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May 18, 2026

nVent Electric (NVT, BUY) – Switch-ing Gears to Higher Substation Growth – PT to $229

By Austin Wang

We revisit our ’27, ’28 estimates as nVent Electric validated our initation thesis of DC-driven upside to the long-term algorithm with a 10pt raise to organic ’26 topline guidance. We quantify surprising growth across the…

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May 18, 2026

SolarEdge (SEDG; SELL) – Story Without the Spend: SEDG & ENPH Rallied 40–48% on an 800V Pivot Their R&D Budgets Don’t Fund

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line Up Front In the last five sessions SEDG appreciated +47.79% and ENPH +40.48%, against a −0.03% S&P 500. That is roughly 48 and 40 points of single-week alpha in two multi-billion-dollar equities with…

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May 13, 2026

Nextpower (NXT; BUY) – F4Q26 Earnings Review: Clean Beat & FY27 Raise; FCF Print Reaffirms Quality of Earnings

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Executive Summary NXT delivered a clean F4Q26 beat across every line item that matters and raised FY27 revenue guidance more than we expected, but the optical headline of the print is overshadowed by what is,…

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May 12, 2026

Legence (LGN, BUY) – 1Q26 Re-Preview: Bowers Backlog to Break A Higher Bar, PT to $121

By Austin Wang

We see today’s theme-driven pull-back ahead of Legence’s impending earnings (earnings expected 7am Thursday 5/14) as an opportunity to own the most accelerative story in data EPC into a +10% topline guidance raise on earnings….

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May 12, 2026

Cameco Corp. (CCO, BUY) – Patience Required; Near-Term Headwinds Cloud a Still-Intact AI-Driven Long-Term Thesis; Maintain BUY

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis & Summary We are reiterating our BUY rating on Cameco Corp. (CCO) but lowering our 12-month price target to C$152.60/share from C$171.20/share previously, an implied 7.3% reduction. Our slightly reduced target is derived…

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