July 17, 2023
The Extent of the Q2 Price Cut will Determine Tesla’s Fate Regarding a 2Q23 “Modest” Miss and/or “Huge” Miss. In this note we detail while we expect TSLA’s 2Q23E revs/EPS to come in at $24.4bn/$0.80…
July 11, 2023
We Expect U.S. Steel to Post a (very) Modest Miss in Q2, Followed by a More Substantial Miss in 2H23. In the analysis that follows, we detail why we believe X’s Q2 numbers will be…
June 30, 2023
SolarEdge is Still Seen as Being in the Driver’s Seat as it Relates to the Global Solar Inverter Arms Race, a Thesis We Think Will Change (to the Downside) in 2H23. In this note, we…
June 30, 2023
We See Outsized Risk to the “Cockamamie” 20yr DCF Calculations, Known to Many as “Net Subscriber Value”, Sunrun, Sunnova, & Sunpower (as well as our Sell-Side Peers) Use to Justify Their Valuations. First off, why…
June 22, 2023
Consensus Seems to Be Asleep at the Wheel w/ Respect to Daqo’s 2023E EPS Estimate. Despite the fact that mono poly-Si prices are down -76.7% YoY as of 6/21/23 (Ex. 1), the Consensus 2023E EPS…
June 13, 2023
Canadian Solar Has Been a Significant Outperformer Over the TTM. Over the past year (Ex. 1), CSIQ’s shares are up +24.5%, vs. -19.7% for Jinko Solar Co. Ltd., -54.5% for Longi Green Energy Tech. Co….
June 9, 2023
Burning the Midnight Oil Last Night Provided us an Opportunity to Catch up with Long-Time Contacts in China and the EU, as Well as the U.S. In this note, we provide four separate “fire side”…
June 8, 2023
Did Sunrun Lose its Head of Project Financing Unbeknownst to Many (Followed by the Recent Sudden Departure of its co-Founder)? In this note, we look to address that question, while also providing a Q&A we…
June 1, 2023
We Believe the Solar Industry is in the Beginning Innings of One of the Most Severe Supply Surpluses its Ever Seen. FSLR said on its 4/27/23 Q1 earnings conference call that “based on the current…
May 23, 2023
Tesla Reports Week Seven Domestic China Sales. Just now, we got updated insurance data from China regarding TSLA’s week seven domestic China sales. And, the numbers were lackluster at best. That is, with 10.2K cars…
May 16, 2023
Checkup Time for Tesla in its Core Three Markets of China, the U.S., and Europe. In the following, we provide an update on China (to include today’s weekly insurance data for the week of May…
April 27, 2023
Are Investors Currently Unaware/Ignoring the “Existential” Risks Facing the Subprime Solar Lending Industry? As detailed in Ex. 1 below, according to bond rating agency Kroll, default rates on solar loans are currently on the upswing….
April 26, 2023
Notwithstanding Speculation about its Early “Demise”, Chinese Data on Weekly Cars Sales is Still Available. Despite claims by many, including GLJ Research, that China was discontinuing its weekly reporting on automobile sales, the data set…
April 19, 2023
After Updating our Bottom-Up Model, we See Risk(s) to Consensus’ 1Q23 Estimates. In what follows, we provide the key assumptions that drive our 1Q23E rev/adj.-EPS ests. of $22.590bn/$0.64 vs. Cons’ $23.365bn/$0.86 ests. (i.e., a miss),…
April 18, 2023
We Expect Stronger Headwinds for SunPower in 1H23E vs. Cons. Expectations; 2H23E Could Also be Plagued with Economic Hardships as a Solar Price War Erupts. On 2/16/23, when SPWR provided 2023E guidance for: (a) 90K-110K…