Company Notes


May 1, 2026

nVent Electric (NVT, BUY) – 1Q26 FLASH – FY organic sales guide bumped +10% to +22%

By Austin Wang

Expect Street to revise upwards after a clean beat & raise on strong incremental margins for key growth segment Systems Protection. NVT posted mid-30’s organic growth while raising the FY guide to low-20’s – we…

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May 1, 2026

Comfort Systems (FIX, BUY) – The Beat and Raise Party Is Still On, PT to $2,518 – 1Q26 Review

By Austin Wang

We raise our numbers as FIX beat and raised atop difficult compares in defiance of valuation fears. Our catch-up with Investor Relations continues to underscore our conversations with cooling co-vendors – installation volumes and pricing…

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April 29, 2026

Enphase (ENPH) – Headline Beat Masks an Underlying Disaster: U.S. Sell-Through Down 48% Q/Q, 2Q Guide Misses by 4%, Batteries Miss by 27%

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line Enphase delivered the kind of “beat” that does not survive contact with the second page. Headline 1Q26 revenue of $282.9M printed in-line (-0.3% vs. consensus $283.8M), and the optical (non-GAAP) OPEX line drove…

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April 27, 2026

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY) – 800V future ahead- Substations “just the beginning” – 1Q26 Review

By Austin Wang

Expect Electrifications upward revisions to continue as we hear back from our industry contacts. “This is just the beginning” Electrification future firing on 800V cylinders We confirmed with GE Vernova explicitly that the medium-voltage Uninterruptible…

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April 27, 2026

Sungrow 1Q Miss: Storage Margin Pool Cracks — Trade Implications for JKS, CSIQ, DQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Changed This Morning Early this morning, Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) reported 1Q26 net income of RMB 2.3B versus Bloomberg consensus of RMB 3.32B — a 31% miss and -40% YoY. Management cites intensifying…

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April 23, 2026

Tesla (TSLA) 1Q26 Review – Curtain Call: How Tesla Manufactured One More Positive Print Before the “Horrifying” Cash Burn Commences

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line Tesla reported 1Q26 revenue of $22.387B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41, optically a modest beat. This “beat”, however, was entirely manufactured. Stripping out management-disclosed one-time items — i.e., $230M of auto warranty true-downs…

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April 21, 2026

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) – We See a Sizeable Q1 Sales/EPS Miss on Tap; Guidance Also Appears Set to Disappoint; Maintain SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Executive Summary Tesla reports 1Q26 results tomorrow after the close, and in our view, this print is just as much about the headline numbers as it is the forward commentary. The consensus calls for 1Q26…

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April 20, 2026

Initiate Legence (LGN) at BUY – Modular Cooling to Run Hot, $99PT

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage of Legence (LGN) at BUY with a PT of $99 to emphasize Legence’s increasingly pivotal role in addressing integration undercapacity for data center cooling end-customers. Our channel checks on Legence’s large hyperscaler…

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April 20, 2026

Initiate Everus Construction Group (ECG) at HOLD – Leverage to the Customers, $141PT

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage on Everus Construction Group (ECG) at HOLD to reflect a fairly-priced data center opportunity-set at $141PT. Despite management’s prudent execution, limited quantification of pre-fabrication capacity ramp and predominantly cost-plus contracting caps our…

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April 20, 2026

Initiate Comfort Systems (FIX) at BUY – Scale at the Bottleneck Meets Modular Momentum

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage on Comfort Systems at BUY, as backlog adds and ramping incremental margins emphasize that demand is there for this best-in-class capacity provider. View the next leg of revisions as bookings driven as…

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April 17, 2026

Sunrun (RUN) – Supply Chain Channel Check Points to Demand Air Pocket; Structural Questions Emerge on Residential Solar Business Model

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Summary We conducted a channel check with a senior executive at APsystems (APS), a tier-one microinverter and module-level power electronics (MLPE) supplier to the US residential solar market. The conversation followed the Chapter 11 bankruptcy…

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April 16, 2026

Sunrun (RUN) – Freedom Forever Bankruptcy Validates GLJ Solar Resi Bear Thesis: Affiliate Channel Collapse Exposes Structural Vulnerabilities

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Summary The Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of Freedom Forever, LLC on April 15, 2026, coupled with the Texas Attorney General fraud investigation into Sunrun and Freedom Forever, LLC (for violations of the Deceptive Trade…

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April 13, 2026

JinkoSolar (JKS) 4Q25 Preview: Our Cost Driver Model Suggests a “Margin Shocker” is on Tap for JKS’ 1Q26E Guidance

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis Ahead of JKS’s 4Q25 Earnings Report This Thursday, Updating Our Bottom-Up Cost Driver Model for Intra-Quarter Commodity Prices, Global Demand Data, and Our On-the-Ground U.S. Installer Channel Checks, We See a Sizeable Guidance…

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April 8, 2026

Tesla (TSLA) – The Options-Driven Mirage – What Happens When the Gamma Fuel “Runs Dry”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Executive Summary This note presents evidence that Tesla’s (TSLA) share price has been significantly and systematically elevated over the past six years by an options market structure uniquely dependent on aggressive retail call buying —…

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April 3, 2026

Argan (AGX, BUY) – F4Q Review: Margins don’t roll-forward, but execution does – BUY, PT to $704

By Austin Wang

Trumbull early completion drove F4Q headline OMs 18.2% to beat the Street at 12.7%, but management has been very clear that the outsized contribution of a single early close-out simply validates CCGT EPC unit economics…

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