Company Notes


March 31, 2026

Sunrun (RUN) Channel Check – Reading the Remittance Data: What 60% CNLs and 10% Recovery Rates Mean for Sunrun’s Next Deal

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis The March 20, 2026 Intex/Guggenheim ABS surveillance data (Ex. 4) — reviewed and confirmed through a proprietary channel discussion with a senior structured products professional — is the most important document in the…

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March 30, 2026

Initiate Modine (MOD) at BUY – Chiller Thriller is a Coil-ed Spring for Margins

By Austin Wang

We initiate on Modine Manufacturing at BUY with a Street-high $290 PT as the analyst community fails to give Modine credit for a NAM data center chillers capacity ramp that will drive accelerative trends at…

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March 30, 2026

Tesla (TSLA) – Q1’26 Delivery Preview

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Conclusion We reiterate our Sell rating and $24.86 12-month price target on Tesla (TSLA). Our final Q1 2026 delivery model — incorporating GLJ’s proprietary VIN-based US production channel check, CPCA/CNEVPost China production and delivery…

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March 26, 2026

Sunrun (RUN) Channel Check Update – Optimizing for Last Cycle: Why RUN’s “Wall Street Strategy” Is a Death Sentence; PT Falls to $4.63/shr (vs. $6.73 prior)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

I. Investment Thesis We are maintaining our SELL rating on Sunrun (RUN) with an updated price target of $4.63, implying approximately 63% downside from current levels. Our conviction has strengthened following a direct channel check…

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March 22, 2026

nVent Electric (NVT, BUY) – +35% liquid cooling CAGR thru ’28, NVT to grow ahead – PT to $153

By Austin Wang

We see partial validation of our white-space thesis as management unveiled new long-term targets ahead of the Street that met buyside expectations. Expect further long-only follow-through after management spoke to accelerative data centers execution and…

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March 19, 2026

CANADIAN SOLAR 4Q25 EARNINGS QUICK TAKE: The Watt Hits the Fan Redux – A Miss on Every Line That Matters, a Guide That Confesses, and a JKS Read-Through That Should Terrify the Bulls; CSIQ Shares Down -13.9% Pre-Market

By Gordon L. Johnson II

(a) The Quarter – A Clean Miss Dressed Up in Project Asset Language Q4 revenue of $1.217B missed the $1.355B Consensus estimate by ~10% — a wide miss for what is supposed to be a…

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March 18, 2026

Jinko Solar (JKS; SELL) – The “Watt Hits the Fan”: Rising Costs, Falling ASPs, and a Storage Story That Doesn’t Add Up – Reiterate SELL; PT to $12.10/shr (-51% downside)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis We reiterate our SELL rating on JinkoSolar (JKS US) and adjust our 2026E yr-end PT modestly higher to $12.10 (-51% downside) from $10.15 prior on our updated estimates. The March 12, 2026 PV…

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March 16, 2026

nVent Electric (NVT, BUY) – Initiation feedback, incremental margins puts and takes

By Austin Wang

We digest client feedback and note a consensus that management will significantly lower company-wide incremental margins from pre-Thermal divestiture guided mid-30’s with buyside bogeys clustering around mid-20’s incremental EBIT margins. We break apart the puts…

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March 16, 2026

Cleveland-Cliffs Update – Sell the Seasonal Peak: HRC’s Best Days Are Behind It for 2026

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis – Estimate & Macro Update We reiterate our SELL rating on CLF and keep our 12-month price target flat at $9.42/share — reflecting the February 10 GLJ update note valuation methodology (13.0x 2026E…

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March 16, 2026

Nextpower (NXT, BUY) – Management Initiation Feedback on Supermarket Thesis, EBTIDA Beat Streak (8 and counting) Update

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis – Management Feedback We had a chance to catch up with Nextpower management (IR contact: Sarah Lee) on March 13, 2026 for a 36-minute discussion covering eight topics spanning the company’s product strategy,…

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March 12, 2026

TESLA (TSLA) — ROBOTAXI PROGRAM UPDATE

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Austin FSD Rollout Failure: Fleet Collapse, Crash Data & Management Exodus EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This update incorporates three new data layers since our June 5th, 2025 initial Austin note: (1) NHTSA-sourced crash rate analysis confirming Tesla’s…

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March 10, 2026

Initiate Nextpower (NXT) at BUY – Customer Consolidation, Vertical SKU Capture, & Franchise Moat Being Priced as Cyclical Equip. Player

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Supermarket Thesis The core insight is structural, not cyclical: NXT’s customers are consolidating, and NXT is one of the only vendors with the execution capability to consolidate their SKUs vertically. This is a supermarket…

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March 5, 2026

Initiate nVent Electric (NVT) at BUY – Investor Day to quantify data center hypergrowth

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage on nVent Electric at BUY w/ a street-high $151PT and estimates to match. We believe that despite management’s best efforts, the analyst community is mismodeling the size and growth of NVT’s liquid…

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March 5, 2026

Initiate Powell Industries (POWL) at HOLD – Execution utilities-focused, data center upside limited

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage of POWL at HOLD with a $450PT as channel checks and management commentary call into question the data center narrative priced into the stock. We model +MSD% upside to sellside numbers, but…

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March 5, 2026

Initiate Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) at BUY – Hyperscaler Credentials Place it Among Premium Peers, $60PT

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage on Solaris Energy Infrastructure at BUY with a $60PT even as BYoG power generation continues to prove itself through incremental contracting at extended durations. Speed-to-power continues to resonate in industry conversations as…

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