Company Notes


July 17, 2023

2Q23 Earnings Preview – We Expect Largely Inline Q2 Results, But Does the Auto Supply Chain “Freeing Up” Mean Tesla’s Margins Are Structurally (a lot) Lower Than Consensus is Currently Modeling?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Extent of the Q2 Price Cut will Determine Tesla’s Fate Regarding a 2Q23 “Modest” Miss and/or “Huge” Miss. In this note we detail while we expect TSLA’s 2Q23E revs/EPS to come in at $24.4bn/$0.80…

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July 11, 2023

U.S. Steel Q2 Earnings Preview – Is “Big Trouble in Little China” Coming Home to Roost in the U.S.?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Expect U.S. Steel to Post a (very) Modest Miss in Q2, Followed by a More Substantial Miss in 2H23. In the analysis that follows, we detail why we believe X’s Q2 numbers will be…

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June 30, 2023

SolarEdge’s “Milk” is Souring… But it Hasn’t Yet Gone Fully Bad (i.e., We Believe Cons. has Set the 2Q23E Hurdle Low, After Which Things Become Much More Difficult)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge is Still Seen as Being in the Driver’s Seat as it Relates to the Global Solar Inverter Arms Race, a Thesis We Think Will Change (to the Downside) in 2H23. In this note, we…

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June 30, 2023

Conn. Utility Eversource Cuts Electricity Prices -43% Effective 7/1 as SoCal Edison/PG&E See their Nat Gas Costs Fall -74%/-63% 2H22-to-6/28; Are the Risks to RUN’s/NOVA’s/SPWR’s “Subscriber Values” Grossly Misunderstood?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We See Outsized Risk to the “Cockamamie” 20yr DCF Calculations, Known to Many as “Net Subscriber Value”, Sunrun, Sunnova, & Sunpower (as well as our Sell-Side Peers) Use to Justify Their Valuations. First off, why…

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June 22, 2023

After Updating Our Bottom-Up Daqo Model to Reflect the -66% YTD Drop in Poly-Si Prices, We Believe Consensus has Some “Explaining” to Do; Our 2023E Yr-End PT Drops to $19.66/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Consensus Seems to Be Asleep at the Wheel w/ Respect to Daqo’s 2023E EPS Estimate. Despite the fact that mono poly-Si prices are down -76.7% YoY as of 6/21/23 (Ex. 1), the Consensus 2023E EPS…

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June 13, 2023

Canadian Solar has Outperformed its Chinese Solar Module Peers; will It Continue to “Shine”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Canadian Solar Has Been a Significant Outperformer Over the TTM. Over the past year (Ex. 1), CSIQ’s shares are up +24.5%, vs. -19.7% for Jinko Solar Co. Ltd., -54.5% for Longi Green Energy Tech. Co….

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June 9, 2023

Four Separate “Fire Side” Chats w/ Contacts in China, the EU (Ahead of the SNEC Conf. in Munich), & the U.S. Shed Light on State of Solar Industry

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Burning the Midnight Oil Last Night Provided us an Opportunity to Catch up with Long-Time Contacts in China and the EU, as Well as the U.S. In this note, we provide four separate “fire side”…

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June 8, 2023

Did You Know Sunrun’s Head of Project Finance Left the Company (Prior to the Recent Unexpected Departure of the Company’s Founder)? Also, Below, we Detail a Fireside Chat we had Today w/ an Industry Veteran That Suggests Bulls May be Underestimating NEM 3.0 Impact on California

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Sunrun Lose its Head of Project Financing Unbeknownst to Many (Followed by the Recent Sudden Departure of its co-Founder)? In this note, we look to address that question, while also providing a Q&A we…

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June 1, 2023

First Solar is the Best House on a (Very) Bad Block; Upgrade to HOLD on “Strong Story” we Cannot Yet Disprove

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Believe the Solar Industry is in the Beginning Innings of One of the Most Severe Supply Surpluses its Ever Seen. FSLR said on its 4/27/23 Q1 earnings conference call that “based on the current…

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May 23, 2023

Tesla’s Week 7 China Sales Disappoint, Forcing the Company to Export Made-in-China (“MIC”) Cars from Shanghai to Canada for the First Time Ever (this is not what growth companies do)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Reports Week Seven Domestic China Sales. Just now, we got updated insurance data from China regarding TSLA’s week seven domestic China sales. And, the numbers were lackluster at best. That is, with 10.2K cars…

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May 16, 2023

How Are Sales & Inventory Trending for Tesla in China, the U.S., and Europe Quarter-to-Date & What’s Our Latest Est. on 2Q23E GAAP EPS?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Checkup Time for Tesla in its Core Three Markets of China, the U.S., and Europe. In the following, we provide an update on China (to include today’s weekly insurance data for the week of May…

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April 27, 2023

Is There an “Existential Threat” to Owning the Solar Resi Names (RUN/NOVA/SPWR) & is it Being Ignored, Similar to the Fate that Befell SunEdison Shortly Before Bankruptcy?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Investors Currently Unaware/Ignoring the “Existential” Risks Facing the Subprime Solar Lending Industry? As detailed in Ex. 1 below, according to bond rating agency Kroll, default rates on solar loans are currently on the upswing….

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April 26, 2023

Update on Tesla’s Standing in the Chinese Auto Market (to Include Weekly Sales & 1Q23 Market Share Fluctuations) as well as US/EU Inventory

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Notwithstanding Speculation about its Early “Demise”, Chinese Data on Weekly Cars Sales is Still Available. Despite claims by many, including GLJ Research, that China was discontinuing its weekly reporting on automobile sales, the data set…

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April 19, 2023

1Q23E Earnings Preview – We Believe a Miss is Likely on Deck (we see Q1 Revs/Margins Missing Cons, & Negative Free Cash Flow)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

After Updating our Bottom-Up Model, we See Risk(s) to Consensus’ 1Q23 Estimates. In what follows, we provide the key assumptions that drive our 1Q23E rev/adj.-EPS ests. of $22.590bn/$0.64 vs. Cons’ $23.365bn/$0.86 ests. (i.e., a miss),…

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April 18, 2023

Surging U.S. Risk-Free Interest Rates + Weak CA Installs in Jan./Feb. + New PG&E Rate Reform Proposal = Tough Times Ahead for SunPower

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Expect Stronger Headwinds for SunPower in 1H23E vs. Cons. Expectations; 2H23E Could Also be Plagued with Economic Hardships as a Solar Price War Erupts. On 2/16/23, when SPWR provided 2023E guidance for: (a) 90K-110K…

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