December 1, 2023
Houston, We Have a Problem. As a reminder, when SEDG reported 3Q23 results a few weeks back, despite negatively preannouncing days prior (due to order delays/cancellations as customers double/triple ordered in 2022, primarily in Europe),…
November 8, 2023
What’s Up? In this note, following, what we see as incremental discussions we held this week with: (a) the leading distributor of solar parts in the U.S., as well as (b) the world’s leading multi-platform…
November 2, 2023
So, How did Sunrun Fare in Q3? In this note, we provide our quick thoughts on Sunrun’s 3Q23 results reported last night, where the company: (a) saw -$804.7mn in free-cash-flow burn, despite cutting its staff…
November 2, 2023
SolarEdge Falls as it Guides to 4Q23E non-GAAP (which is BS as stock comp counts) Operating Income Loss of -$106.9mn (vs. Street’s $11.3mn GAAP Est.). As of the writing of this note (i.e., 3:17am EST),…
October 19, 2023
So How Did Tesla’s 3Q23 Results Come in vs. the Street’s Drastically Reduced Estimates? Last night, TSLA reported auto revs/auto-gross-margins (excl. credits) of $19.6bn/16.3%, missing Cons.’ $20.9bn/18.02% ests. by -6.44% and -172bps, respectively (we focus…
October 17, 2023
What’s Up? In this note, we provide updates on: (a) our bottoms-up earnings driver model for TSLA, to include our updated 3Q23E, 2023E, 2024E, and 2025E earnings estimates, (b) wait times for new TSLA orders…
October 4, 2023
What’s the Latest on the US Inverter Market? Last night, after waiting for weeks for a response, one of our oldest US solar inverter contacts (we’ve been in touch with this individual since 2008), who…
October 2, 2023
Tesla Reports Q3 Production/Deliveries of 430.488K/435.059K, Missing the Cons’ est. of 461.992K/456.722K by a Mile. In this note, we discuss our views on TSLA’s just-reported 3Q23 production/delivery ests., which we previewed 9/18/23 when we said…
September 18, 2023
Tesla Has a Q3 Demand and Earnings Problem that Many Seem to Want to Ignore (for now). In this note, in addition to updating our bottom-up earnings driver model for TSLA’s 2023E and 2024E-25E earnings…
September 12, 2023
What’s Up? In this note we update our view on both Cameco Corp., and the broader Uranium space, where the most significant takeaways are: (a) a revamp of our global supply/demand model framework, (b) our…
August 14, 2023
Cliff’s Offers to Pay a 42% Premium for US Steel, Effectively Crediting the Company for its “Best for All®” Strategy Before it’s Been Fully Executed (a huge plus for US Steel’s shareholders). Last night, we…
August 8, 2023
Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla’s CFO of Four Years, Announces his Immediate/Unexpected Departure Effective 8/4/23. Yesterday we learned that TSLA’s “young” 39yr old CFO decided to leave the company, unexpectedly (given, as recently as May, according to…
July 20, 2023
Were Tesla’s “Other Income” Line Flat QoQ, EPS Would have Missed by “a Mile” (i.e., the beat came, entirely, from a one-time item). In 2021-22, TSLA benefitted from both an automotive parts shortage and automobile…
July 18, 2023
Is 2H23E Setting Up as Among the Best Opportunities in Years to Short Solar Stocks (and Particularly the “Parts Makers”)? In the analysis that follows, we attempt to address the question posed above, as well…
July 17, 2023
The Extent of the Q2 Price Cut will Determine Tesla’s Fate Regarding a 2Q23 “Modest” Miss and/or “Huge” Miss. In this note we detail while we expect TSLA’s 2Q23E revs/EPS to come in at $24.4bn/$0.80…