Company Notes


January 23, 2025

“Big Trouble in Little China” – Our 2025E Jinko Solar Price Objective Moves Lower to $10.95/shr (-45% Downside) on “Universal” Trump Tariff Risk + Structural 2025E Oversupply

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Jinko Solar Still a Good Short Following its -33.9% Trailing-Twelve-Month Fall (vs. the S&P 500 Rising +25.1% Over the Same Timeframe)? Interestingly, we remind our readers that JKS is guiding its U.S. shipment mix…

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January 16, 2025

After Falling -72.8% Over the Past 2yrs (vs. +49.1% for the S&P 500 Over the Same Timeframe), is Canadian Solar Still a Good Short Play?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Does Canadian Solar Still Represent a “Solid Short Play” Following its Collapse Over the Past 2yrs? In this note, we analyze: (1) the capacity for China’s top 9 solar cell makers in 2025E vs. 2025E…

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January 7, 2025

Is the “Trump Put” About to Send U.S. Steel Stocks Higher? Upgrade CLF to BUY on Pending Trump Tariffs + Positive Seasonality; PT to $14.27/shr, or +58% Upside from Yesterday’s Close

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is there a “Trump Put” Play for U.S. Steel Stocks in the Offing? While we believe (strongly) the U.S. economy is in much worse shape than many pundits acknowledge (detailed below), with Trump set to…

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January 3, 2025

Does the Collapse in Tesla’s 4Q24 Production Portend Global Demand has Peaked, Suggesting “Stormy Weather in Longville” For Tesla Bulls in 2025E?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Has Stated They Have a Daily View into Real-Time Demand, Unlike Most Other OEMs with Dealerships. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, TSLA has boasted, previously, that because they get real-time data, on a…

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December 27, 2024

How do the Betting Markets’ & Wall Street’s 4Q24E Tesla Delivery Ests. Match Up to the Reality “On the Ground”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Visited a Large Tesla Dealership in Charlotte, NC Yesterday. With weekly auto insurance data available for the Chinese auto market, and daily/monthly insurance registration data available in Europe, the key unknown each quarter as…

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December 17, 2024

Does the Goldman Sachs Double Upgrade of SolarEdge Today Offer up an “Early Christmas Gift to the Solar Grinches” Looking to Ring the Whoville X-Mas Register?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Today, Goldman Sachs Double Upgraded SolarEdge from SELL to BUY. Goldman Sachs double upgraded SEDG from SELL to BUY with a $19/shr 12-month forward price objective, which compares to our year-end 2025E price target of…

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December 17, 2024

Is the Recent Move in Tesla’s Stock the Result of a Massive Options Gamma Squeeze, Suggesting Wall Street’s New-Found Fundamental Optimism is Unfounded (and is an end to the rally in [near] sight)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s Stock has Been on a Tear; is this Indicative of Better Fundamentals, or Simply Options Market Activity/Manipulation? Since 10/23/24, or when TSLA reported slightly better-than-expected 3Q24 results, the stock has surged +116.7% higher; this…

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December 11, 2024

Sources Close to President Biden Suggest He’ll Block Nippon’s Bid to Acquire US Steel; Our PT Edges Lower to $37.67/shr; Maintain BUY

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Biden Throws “Curveball” into Nippon’s Planned Acquisition of US Steel. Yesterday, before the close, Bloomberg reported that people familiar with matter believe President Biden will block Nippon’s planned $14.1bn acquisition of US Steel (X; BUY)…

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December 9, 2024

Is Wall Street Underestimating the Likelihood President Biden Steps in and Approves Nippon’s Pending Acquisition of U.S. Steel? We Raise our 2024E PT to $45.88/shr Following Recent Checks; BUY

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is U.S. Steel a “Diamond in the Rough” Right in Plain Sight? In this note, following discussions with government contacts and industry experts, as well as our observations on a number of key (recent) events,…

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December 3, 2024

Are the Moves in Jinko Solar’s/Canadian Solar’s Shrs on the Revealing of the U.S. Preliminary Anti-Dumping Rates Justified? And, Are Rates (Likely) Headed a Lot Higher in 2025E?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Jinko Solar’s Stock has Surged Since the US Commerce Department’s Release of its Preliminary Anti-Dumping Rates Last Week; is it Justified? In short, when looking at both JKS’: (a) preliminary Malaysian Countervailing Duties (link) of…

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November 7, 2024

SolarEdge Reports Dismal Q3 Results (as we warned) & Guides Poorly (as we warned); but, the Real “Star” Was the Depressing 4Q24E Gross Margin Guidance, Despite Writing Inventories Down by -68.4%

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge and the “Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day” Quarter. Last night, after the close, our current top solar short idea, SEDG, reported 3Q24 rev/non-GAAP EPS/free-cash-flow of $260.9mn/-$15.33/-$111.2mn vs. Cons. $273.4mn/-$1.67/-$77.6mn (GLJe $254.4mn/-$1.69/-$108.8mn) – i.e., a herculean…

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November 6, 2024

We Believe Donald Trump’s New IRS Commissioner Will Reduce SunRun’s Ability, Via Section 1603, to Inflate the Value of its Systems 78.8%-to-213.0% for US Tax Credit Purposes; Downgrade to SELL; 2024E PT $7.78/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Downgrade SunRun to SELL on Donald Trump’s U.S. Presidential Victory. With a new IRS Commissioner imminent, we move our rating on SunRun to SELL and re-introduce our 2024E year-end price target of $7.78/shr, or…

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October 31, 2024

Our Trading Call on Sunnova Falls Flat – NOVA Reports “Nightmarish” 3Q24 Figures

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Cash Incinerating “Science Project” Company Sunnova Exhibits What it Does Best… Burn a Heap Load of Free-Cash-Flow (“FCF”). Yesterday, after the close, cash-incinerating third-party solar EPC/financing science-project company NOVA reported 3Q24 rev/adj.-EPS/FCF of $235mn/-$0.98/-$559.0mn vs….

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October 29, 2024

JinkoSolar 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Do Chinese Parts Suppliers Have a Q3 “Big Trouble in Little China” Problem?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

JinkoSolar Reports Q3 Earnings Before the Market Opens Tomorrow. Ahead of JKS’ 3Q24 earnings report this Wed., below, using intra-quarter movements in solar poly-Si, wafer, cell, and module prices (as well as the company’s Q3…

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October 28, 2024

Upgrade to HOLD on Risk Into Earnings; Long-Term Stance on Core Business Being a Cash-Incinerator Unchanged

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sunrun Reports Earnings Next Week on Thursday. Ahead of RUN’s 3Q24E results next Thursday, in this note, we detail why we believe being short the stock (into earnings) carries with it quite a bit of…

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