Company Notes

After an extensive model revamp, supported by our extensive Q2-to-Q3 bridge analysis detailed below, compared to consensus we are $0.14 below on EPS, 128bp below on gross margin, and 70% Below on EBIT; Energy’s 13.7…

Reiterate SELL, $188 PT. Bernstein’s hyperscaler checks call the quality concerns overblown. Its own exhibits describe the problem. We came back from Yotta (28-30 September) with secondhand chatter that Vertiv’s liquid-cooling equipment was having quality…

A cyclical industrial that came public through a SPAC and nearly ran out of road in 2022 now trades at 28x forward EBITDA. Our 2027 adj. EBITDA is 6% below the Street, the liquid-cooling market…

We took yesterday’s main number to the head of the structured products desk at a bulge bracket bank. He said the performance is bad and getting worse, that he would not buy a new-issue Sunrun…

Both deals we named as next to breach in our last note have breached. Delinquencies rose in August and again in September. Over the last two months, the pools in this file lost 34 cents…

We model 479.1K third-quarter deliveries, 2.3% above consensus. The buy-side wants “above 2Q26,” which is 480.1K. We think anything under 480K is taken as negative We are at 479.1K deliveries for 3Q26, down 3.6% y/y…

The stock is down 23.4% this year while the S&P 500 is up 13.5%, and a growing number of very good investors have lately asked us the same question: is First Solar a sell? We…

What we learned from a 30-minute call with GE Vernova Investor Relations last Friday, the CEO’s Laguna remarks last week, Siemens Energy’s Laguna read-across, and a week in which the AI complex fell, recovered and…

Bottom Line Raising 2H26 estimates. We lift 3Q26E adjusted EBITDA to $682mn (from $672mn) and 4Q26E to $791mn (from $688mn) — i.e., 15% /25% above the Street’s $593mn/$632mn; FY26E goes to $1,854mn, $244mn above consensus….

Nucor and Steel Dynamics just missed on the three things Cleveland-Cliffs doesn’t have. Read the releases, not the tape. Bottom Line After the close, NUE and STLD guided 3Q26E earnings below consensus. The market’s reflex…

A cyclical gas-turbine manufacturer priced as a secular compounder. The 2027 vintage disappoints, the 2029-30 capacity wave lands on the richest backlog, and the free cash flow the market is paying 39x EBITDA for belongs…

The vehicle went into service in Austin last night, which is not nothing. Everything the stock was waiting for (how many, at what price, under whose rules) went unanswered. Sell-the-news. The Short Version We’ve learned…

A record backlog does not pay anyone until it ships. Fluence has to put 47% of its fiscal year through one quarter, out of two factories that just failed, and our rebuilt model says doing…

The stock is not down 25% this year because the quarter was bad (it was). It is down because the robotaxi finally produced data — and this month’s Cybercab debut in Austin will put that…

Bottom Line: Our favorite solar science project printed a headline “beat” on every line the company would prefer you look at — and the stock fell -10.6% the next day anyway, because the market is…