November 10, 2026
Nobody defaulted. The most aggressive buyer in the turbine queue simply wrote off its deposits. That is our bear case, in the customer’s own words. Reiterate SELL. What happened. Overnight SoftBank reported a $7.0bn July-September…
November 10, 2026
Bottom Line JKS Beat on Gross Margin and Missed Badly on Revenue. We Were Wrong on the Margin. We Think 3Q26 Is the High-Water Mark. Revenue of $2.03B missed Bloomberg consensus of $2.88B by 29.4%…
November 9, 2026
China domestic retail: worst October on record. Tesla’s October China domestic retail of 8,817 units fell 66.1% YoY and 67.6% QoQ (vs. July). It is the lowest month of any kind in our 2023-2026 series,…
November 5, 2026
Five client inquiries, one answer: the merger is slower, costlier and less likely — and the market-implied deal probability in TSLA has fallen ~12pp in two sessions Since Tuesday night we have fielded five client…
November 4, 2026
Our May risks showed up nearly to the letter. What would change our mind didn’t. In May we told investors to size down for a noisier six to nine months and named four reasons, namely:…
November 3, 2026
F2Q27: a 17% EPS beat versus our model and a guide raise. Ex-45X gross margin fell to 23%. Reiterate Buy; PT to $158 from $149. NXT beat the bar we set, on the numbers and…
November 2, 2026
We said what would make us wrong. Some of it happened. On 29 September we listed the tests: 3Q revenue inside the $3.65-3.85bn guide with no more “timing” talk, a 4Q guide held at ~$4.3bn,…
October 30, 2026
Higher prices, no signatures. Since the Section 232 proclamation in August, FSLR has raised prices on every new inquiry and on deals still in early negotiation. It has not signed one at the new price….
October 30, 2026
Our estimates were too low. The thesis, a cyclical gas-turbine maker priced as a secular compounder whose order growth is slowing, is intact. Under a +178% Power order headline, new gas business nearly halved. GEV…
October 29, 2026
What we learned from a follow-up call with Atlas Investor Relations yesterday, the day we initiated; what Liberty, ProPetro and an AI-power sell-off told us in the same week; and what we will be watching…
October 28, 2026
We are below the Street on 2027–28 estimates and still buyers. At $9.08 the market is paying for a sand company sitting on the floor of its cost curve, and is getting the 731 MW…
October 28, 2026
Enphase is down ~18% pre-market; we warned this would happen two days ago in our preview note; below, we detail our takeaways from last night’s results/earnings call. Enphase reported 3Q26 revenue of $293.3mn, in line…
October 26, 2026
We have updated our bottom-up earnings driver model for Enphase to reflect a number of recent channel checks, as well as recent data from the California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) and European pricing/share data from BWG….
October 22, 2026
Adj. EPS of $0.48 beat cons of $0.44. Gross margin of 19.6% beat 17.8%. Free cash flow of +$1.5bn landed against a Street est. of -$5bn. We are not going to argue w/ those numbers….
October 19, 2026
Not for lack of wanting to spend. Land, power, moratoria and rates are the brakes. Reiterate SELL on VRT. Bottom Line A channel check dinner held this past Sunday night with a senior executive of…