Company Notes


May 22, 2024

Is an Inverter “Changing of the Guard” Occurring Unbeknownst to Wall Street, Setting Up a Captivating Shorting Opportunity in Enphase?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

As Global Solar Distributors/Installers Shift Away from Higher-Cost Module-Level-Performance-Electronics (“MLPE”) Inverters, Opting Instead for Lower-Cost String Optionality, we See Outsized Risk to Enphase. In this initiation of coverage report, we detail the basis for our…

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May 14, 2024

Is the “Roaring Kitty”-Driven Meme Stock Short Squeeze Pushing SunPower Higher an Outlier, and if So… Does that Set the Stock Up as a Great Short… Yet Again?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Which One of these Things (SPWR + GME + AMC) is Not Like the Other? When meme stocks squeeze, typically, owners of the stock hold firm onto the shares, causing fear among the “shorts“, sending…

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April 22, 2024

When Adding up Tesla’s “Nightmare Before Christmas” Weekend Price Cuts in the USA + China + Germany + France + Norway + Netherlands + Middle East + Africa = What Does it Mean for the Share Price (i.e., what’s the math say)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Took a Slashing to the Price of its New Cars All Through this Past Weekend. In the analysis that follows, using estimates for the number of cars TSLA is expected to sell in each…

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April 16, 2024

Just How Bad Will Tesla’s 1Q24E Numbers Be, and with this Week’s 15-20% Global Staff Cuts… are Tesla’s Q2 Fundamentals Setting up for Yet Another “Disaster”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s 1Q24E Revs/non-GAAP EPS Appear Set to Miss Wall Street’s Estimate… by a “Nautical Mile”; But What About 2Q24E? After spending the better part of this past weekend updating our bottom-up TSLA revenue driver model…

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March 28, 2024

We Upgrade Cleveland Cliffs to BUY from SELL on: “Trump Put” + “Biden Put” + Rotation Out of Tech into Value = Smooth Sailing Looking Forward

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Cleveland Cliffs Really a BUY Here? With the S&P 500 up +10.0% year-to-date (“YTD”), vs. CLF being up +8.4% over the same timeframe (i.e., CLF has underperformed), not to mention the QQQs being up…

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March 13, 2024

After Recalibrating Our Bottom-Up CSIQ Revenue-Driver Model, Our 2024E Yr-End Price Target Adjusts Lower to $9.10/shr From $16.43/Shr Prior; Are Consensus’ 2024E CSIQ Estimates “Stale”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Higher Interest Rates are Making Canadian Solar’s Ability to Sell its Utility-Scale Solar Projects “Very Difficult”. As a reminder, we note: (1) in 2Q23, CSIQ saw its Recurrent Energy segment deliver $360mn in revenues at…

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March 7, 2024

While the Street’s 2024E Adj.-EPS Estimate for Jinko Solar has “Collapsed” from $9.76/shr Three Months Ago to $5.98/shr Currently, is it Enough?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… is Jinko Solar Still a Good Short, or Has that Train Left the Station? In the analysis that follows, we update our views on global solar wafer/cell/module bellwether Jinko Solar, to include: (a) our…

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February 29, 2024

If We Told You Sunrun’s Recent Convertible Bond Cost ~15.4% (or 8.14% for the Debt Portion Alone), Funds Which it is Investing into “Assets” that Generate ~3.7% Returns… Would that Make it More Compelling as a Short?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Cost of Sunrun’s Recent $475mn Convertible Bond Issue May Surprise You (link). As a reminder to those who don’t have a doctorate in “bond math”, when an investor buys a convertible bond they are…

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February 7, 2024

Despite Strength in Solar Stocks Today, Do Enphase’s 4Q23 Results & 1Q24E Guidance Actually Foretell a Coming “Nuclear Winter” for Solar Stocks (i.e., are they still grossly overvalued)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Solar Stocks are Roaring Higher Today, Despite Enphase’s 4Q24 Revs. Missing a Q4 Street Est. that Had Been Cut -51.9% Over the Past 6 Months (yes, you heard that right); Does this Make (Any) Sense?…

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February 6, 2024

US HRC Steel Prices Appear Set to Have a “Humpty Alexander Dumpty”-Like Fall… Which is Not Priced Into CLF’s Shares; PT to $11.41/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Looking Past Last Year’s Delayed Recession, the Real Thing Appears Set to Take Hold in 2024. While steel industry CEO’s have maintained a positive bias thru 4Q23 earnings reporting season, contrary to the belief of…

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February 1, 2024

Are Residential Solar Companies Targeting “Low-Income”/Poor Folks w/ Predatory Loans, Actually Increasing the Financial Burden on America’s Most Vulnerable?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Have Constructed a Model Based on a 7.5kW and 3.5kW Residential Rooftop Solar Home System Financed via a Loan in Greenwich, CT, Using NREL’s PVWatts Calculator; Our Findings were Rather Surprising Given the US…

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January 25, 2024

Tesla’s Q4 Results/2024E Guidance Show it’s Nothing More than a Struggling Car Company (not a high-growth tech co.) & Elon Musk is the World’s (most successful) “Sleazy” Used-Car Salesman

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So What Happened, and Why are we Calling the World’s Richest Man a “Sleazy” Used Car Salesman? In this note, we provide what we see as the eight key takeaways from TSLA’s just-reported 4Q23 results,…

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January 23, 2024

Tesla Q4 Earnings Preview: In the Words of B.B. King… “The Thrill is Gone”… for EV Cars That Is; PT to $23.53

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, What’s Up Next for Tesla and Electric Vehicle “Jesus” Elon Musk? With a cult-like following among retail investors (see here), exacerbated by the fact that the arguably most-followed sell-side analyst on TSLA came out…

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January 17, 2024

What do Last Night’s Tesla European Price Cuts Mean to the “Bottom Line”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… are Last Night’s Tesla Car Price Cuts a Big Deal? In this note, ahead of a full update to our bottom-up TSLA earnings driver model due out later this week, we use a back-of-the-envelope…

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January 16, 2024

Is the Sun Setting on SunPower… or Has it Already Set (And the Masses Just Don’t Know it Yet)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In this Note, in Addition to Updating our Extensive Bottom-Up SunPower Earnings Driver Model, We Update our Outlook on the Company. In the analysis that follows, following: (1) the Dec. 22nd, 2023 decision by Atlas…

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