Company Notes


December 12, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL): Checks show 800V DC deficiency as Nvidia blesses the new entrants flooding the product gap

By Austin Wang

We sat down with one of Vertiv’s private competitors in PDUs and liquid cooling to talk through the competitive landscape for the 800V offerings required to serve Vera Rubin architectures. He emphasized that a lack…

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December 10, 2025

Tesla’s Autonomy Mirage: Crowdsourced Hype, Regulatory Reality, and Another Year-End Robotaxi That Won’t Arrive

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Piper Sandler Make a Wild Claim Based on Cherry-Picked Data? Tesla’s share price outperformed in yesterday’s trading session, which many attributed to a Wall Street analyst report from Piper Sandler, which concluded, based on…

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December 9, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY) – Power goes SUPERSONIC as GEV updates 2028 floor ahead of buyside target – FLASH

By Austin Wang

We want to call out both the accelerative floor on long-term targets for ’28 and validation on our Power Services thesis. First, GEV guided ’28 EBITDA to $10.4bn vs. our $9.8bn (backing out Prolec) and…

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December 5, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – Greater volumes + bullish contracting should shrug off lower pricing, 3Q Review: PT to $445

By Austin Wang

We spoke with management in the wake of Argan’s F3Q earnings update. We believe investors are missing the forest for the trees, and focusing on orders pricing as opposed to management’s emphasis on staffing capacity…

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December 4, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – 3Q First take: Orders miss on pricing

By Austin Wang

Initial take: we back out reported F3Q revs of $251.2mm to get to ~$1.3bn in orders vs. our ~$1.5bn estimate given Basin Ranch and Permian Basin disclosures – backing out $40mm in non-Power Services orders,…

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December 3, 2025

3Q25 Results Disappointed on Sales Timing; Yet Strong Q4 Guide and the “Sprott Put” Keep us BUY Rated; PT Edges Higher to C$99.74/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Happened in Q3? CCJ served up a quarter that fell sharply short of expectations – Q3 adj. EBITDA missed our estimate by 8% – and the culprit isn’t exactly mysterious. Uranium and fuel-services sales…

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November 25, 2025

AGX – F3Q Preview: Focusing beyond the bookings, PT to $447

By Austin Wang

Argan will report F3Q’26 earnings next Thursday, Dec. 4th, after market close; we see the focus very much on Power Services order $’s for pricing read-thru but also on management’s commentary on a compelling opportunity…

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November 25, 2025

How Q4 Car Deliveries Shaping up with Nearly Two-Thirds of the Quarter Over & is Tesla’s GAAP Earnings at Risk of Turning Negative?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Just How ‘Good’ – or More Accurately, How Bad – Are Tesla’s Auto Sales Trending With Nearly Two Months of Q4 Now in the Rearview? When we strip out the optimism, the spin, and the…

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November 23, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – CEO 1×1 takeaways + feedback on our upgrade, reit BUY

By Austin Wang

We sat down with Argan CEO David Watson to discuss our recent upgrade of Argan shares as intra-regional staffing demonstrates upside to management’s previously messaged ceiling on gas generation upside. Management validated our thesis, emphasizing…

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November 14, 2025

CSIQ Q3 Review: Does Canadian Solar’s “Brazen” 2026 Outlook Position it as an Even Better Short?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Happened? Yesterday, due mainly to a few unexpected storage project sales, CSIQ reported Q3 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $1.5bn/-$0.58 vs. GLJe $1.5bn/-$0.41 (Cons. $1.4bn/-$0.53), and e-STORAGE sales of 2.7GWh (above its guidance of 2.1-2.3GWh). Yet,…

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November 13, 2025

Primoris (PRIM, BUY): Breaking apart the bookings blip – 3Q Refresh

By Austin Wang

PRIM posted a 0.7x trailing 12 months book-to-bill to overshadow a safe-harbor driven beat-and-raise quarter. On the call, management cited policy uncertainty. Clients we speak with seem to be moving to the sidelines, but we…

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November 12, 2025

CSIQ Q3 Preview 2.0: In the Words of Warren Buffett… “When you See a Fat Pitch, Take a Large Swing”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Investors Positioned the Wrong Way Ahead of CSIQ’s 3Q25 Results? CSIQ has more than doubled (+114%) in the past month, compared to just +4.5% for the S&P 500 – an astonishing move considering that…

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November 10, 2025

RUN Q3 Review: Cash Gen Boosted by Asset Sales; Bull Case Hard to Disprove N-Term; Maintain Neutral Rating w/ Positive Bias

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? All investors seem to care about when it comes to RUN is its whacky “cash generation” results/guidance – i.e., RUN’s definition of cash flow, which includes debt issued and, for the first time…

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November 10, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – Upgrade to BUY: A 2nd Gas Gen Deal Has Hit the F3Q Book, PT to $369

By Austin Wang

Argan’s Gemma Power Systems announced full notice to proceed on an 860MW gas-fired power plant will enter into F3Q26 backlog. Conversations with Gemma’s largest competitors lead us to believe this project is Vistra’s Monahans, Texas…

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November 6, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL): Vertiv to bolt-on Services as competitor enters liquid cooling in $10bn acquisition

By Austin Wang

We review Vertiv’s announcement of a deal for PurgeRite, a services provider specializing in liquid cooling, but our heads are turned more by the strategic implications of Eaton’s (ETN, not rated) agreement to acquire Boyd…

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