Company Notes


January 25, 2023

Q4 Preview – TSLA’s 1Q23E Guidance is the Real “Main Attraction” Given the Company’s Jan. 2023 Midnight Massacre Price Cuts

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Why Do We Say the 1Q23 Guide is What Matters? When looking at the period from 4Q22-to-1Q23, the avg. price decline, thus far, is: (a) -13.3% for the USA, (b) -10.5% for Europe, and (c)…

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January 23, 2023

Following a Full Model Revamp, CSIQ’s Forward Earnings Appear Set to Be Rerated Lower for New Environment; PT Lower to $12.22/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

2022 Was a Good Year for Canadian Solar; 2023E Appears Set to be the Exact Opposite. In its most recent quarter, CSIQ reported rev/GAAP-EPS of $1.93B/$1.12 vs. Cons’ ests. of $1.86B/$0.30 (a material beat, at…

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January 13, 2023

Tesla’s 1/12/23 “Midnight Massacre” US and EU Price Cuts Support our Longstanding Thesis

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Last Night, as We Warned Would Happen on Monday of this Week, Tesla Engaged in Aggressive Price Cuts in Both the US and EU (as well as Canada). As detailed in Ex. 1 below, and…

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January 10, 2023

Tesla China Reports First Full Week of Jan. 2023 Car Sales & Full Month of Dec. 2022 Domestic Sales; is there “Big Trouble in Little China”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s China Demand Problems Appear to be Metastasizing (it seems, the company will need a bigger price cut). Early this morning, according to ZHU Yulong microblog, we learned that over the Jan. 2nd-to-Jan. 8th timeframe,…

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January 9, 2023

Are First Solar’s “Iron-Clad” Long-Term Contracts at Risk of Cancellation? Fireside Chat w/ a Top-3 US Solar Distribution Bellwether Provides Insights

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Today, we Had the Chance to Catch up with the Head of US Sales from a Top-Three U.S. Solar Distribution Behemoth (details below). Early this morning, for the first time this new year, we had…

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January 6, 2023

Tesla’s ~10.5% “Across the Board” Chinese Price Cuts Last Night Are Much Worse Than You Think

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Tesla’s “Midnight Massacre” Chinese (and Japanese) Price Cuts Last Night Much Worse Than Feared? In short, yes. Why? Well, last night’s TSLA China price cuts (Ex. 1) come after: (a) factory production was cut…

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January 5, 2023

It Appears Sunrun Lost its Largest Banker (Credit Suisse) & is Replacing Funding at a ~3% Cost w/ Funding at a ~7% Cost; This is Nothing Short of a Disaster

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Based on Details from Sunrun’s $835M Funding Announced Today, we Believe the Residential Solar Space is Looking at “Big Problems” in 2023E. Today, we learned that RUN closed a $835M funding round, consisting of a…

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January 4, 2023

Did Sunrun Receive an Adverse Outcome Notification Regarding its Ongoing IRS Audit, Implying Material Going Concern Risk?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Exhibit 1: Sunrun Highlights Ongoing IRS Audit 11/2/22 Source: Page 32 of RUN’s 3Q22 10-Q filing. Exhibit 2: Whistleblower Process Timeline Source: irs.gov. Why Do we Believe Sunrun is Likely in Violation of Current IRS…

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