Company Notes


December 1, 2023

Is Wall Street Being Too Generous Modeling SolarEdge’s 2024E-25E Ests., Meaning, Similar to the 3Q23 Earnings “Debacle”, Sharp Forward Earnings Revisions Lower Are Fated?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Houston, We Have a Problem. As a reminder, when SEDG reported 3Q23 results a few weeks back, despite negatively preannouncing days prior (due to order delays/cancellations as customers double/triple ordered in 2022, primarily in Europe),…

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November 8, 2023

Fireside Chat w/ Leading U.S. Solar Parts Distribution Company and U.S. MLPE Inverter Leader Provide Further Insights into SolarEdge’s/Enphase’s N-Term Outlook

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, following, what we see as incremental discussions we held this week with: (a) the leading distributor of solar parts in the U.S., as well as (b) the world’s leading multi-platform…

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November 2, 2023

Do Sunrun’s Q3 Results Suggest, Similar to the Mortgage Lenders in 2Q08, the “Solar Lenders” Could be Entering the “Beginning Innings” of the End-Game?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, How did Sunrun Fare in Q3? In this note, we provide our quick thoughts on Sunrun’s 3Q23 results reported last night, where the company: (a) saw -$804.7mn in free-cash-flow burn, despite cutting its staff…

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November 2, 2023

If you Think SolarEdge is Bad Now… in the Famous Words of Canadian Rock Band Bachman… “You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge Falls as it Guides to 4Q23E non-GAAP (which is BS as stock comp counts) Operating Income Loss of -$106.9mn (vs. Street’s $11.3mn GAAP Est.). As of the writing of this note (i.e., 3:17am EST),…

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October 19, 2023

Our Key Takeaways from Tesla’s 3Q23 Results Where Auto Gross Margins (ex. Credits) Came in at 16.3%, or -172bps Below Consensus, & E. Musk Said his Cars are Still “Too Expensive”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So How Did Tesla’s 3Q23 Results Come in vs. the Street’s Drastically Reduced Estimates? Last night, TSLA reported auto revs/auto-gross-margins (excl. credits) of $19.6bn/16.3%, missing Cons.’ $20.9bn/18.02% ests. by -6.44% and -172bps, respectively (we focus…

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October 17, 2023

Q3 Earnings Preview: Our Updated Tesla “Bottoms-Up” Earnings Driver Model Points to Misses Across the Board Tomorrow (i.e., Revs/Margins/Non-GAAP EPS Likely Set to Disappoint)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, we provide updates on: (a) our bottoms-up earnings driver model for TSLA, to include our updated 3Q23E, 2023E, 2024E, and 2025E earnings estimates, (b) wait times for new TSLA orders…

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October 4, 2023

Fireside Chat w/ Inverter Market Expert: Is SolarEdge Looking at an Armageddon-Like Situation w/ Respect to its Future Sales/Margins & are Bulls “Asleep at the Wheel” as it Relates to the Potential Risk Here?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s the Latest on the US Inverter Market? Last night, after waiting for weeks for a response, one of our oldest US solar inverter contacts (we’ve been in touch with this individual since 2008), who…

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October 2, 2023

Tesla and the “Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day” Q3 Delivery Result – and No, The Miss is Not the Result of Line “Upgrades”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Reports Q3 Production/Deliveries of 430.488K/435.059K, Missing the Cons’ est. of 461.992K/456.722K by a Mile. In this note, we discuss our views on TSLA’s just-reported 3Q23 production/delivery ests., which we previewed 9/18/23 when we said…

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September 18, 2023

Tesla Can No Longer Grow at its 50%/yr “Mirage” Without a Much Cheaper Car it Won’t Have for Yrs in a Best-Case Scenario & Q3 Results Shaping up to be Big Disappointment

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Has a Q3 Demand and Earnings Problem that Many Seem to Want to Ignore (for now). In this note, in addition to updating our bottom-up earnings driver model for TSLA’s 2023E and 2024E-25E earnings…

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September 12, 2023

Is the Uranium Market in the Beginning Innings of a Second “EV-Like” Melt-Up, which is Misunderstood by the Masses?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note we update our view on both Cameco Corp., and the broader Uranium space, where the most significant takeaways are: (a) a revamp of our global supply/demand model framework, (b) our…

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August 14, 2023

US Steel Rejects Cleveland Cliffs’ Takeover Offer After the Latter Refuses to Engage in the Necessary/Customary Processes to Assess Valuation & Regulatory Issues – GLJ’s Take

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Cliff’s Offers to Pay a 42% Premium for US Steel, Effectively Crediting the Company for its “Best for All®” Strategy Before it’s Been Fully Executed (a huge plus for US Steel’s shareholders). Last night, we…

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August 8, 2023

Our Take on Tesla Announcing its 4th CFO in 6 Years (or 3rd in 4 Years), its New CFO (who was the Top Accountant at SolarCity when the Company was Credibly Alleged to have Engaged in Tax Fraud), & This Week’s China Sales

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla’s CFO of Four Years, Announces his Immediate/Unexpected Departure Effective 8/4/23. Yesterday we learned that TSLA’s “young” 39yr old CFO decided to leave the company, unexpectedly (given, as recently as May, according to…

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July 20, 2023

Q2 Results Show Tesla is Simply a “Car Company” Trading at 70x Earnings when Other “Car Companies” Trade at 6x-8x Earnings

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Were Tesla’s “Other Income” Line Flat QoQ, EPS Would have Missed by “a Mile” (i.e., the beat came, entirely, from a one-time item). In 2021-22, TSLA benefitted from both an automotive parts shortage and automobile…

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July 18, 2023

2Q23 Earnings Preview: “Big Trouble in Little China” – Is the Buyside Missing 2H23 Problems in the World’s Largest Solar Market?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is 2H23E Setting Up as Among the Best Opportunities in Years to Short Solar Stocks (and Particularly the “Parts Makers”)? In the analysis that follows, we attempt to address the question posed above, as well…

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July 17, 2023

2Q23 Earnings Preview – We Expect Largely Inline Q2 Results, But Does the Auto Supply Chain “Freeing Up” Mean Tesla’s Margins Are Structurally (a lot) Lower Than Consensus is Currently Modeling?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Extent of the Q2 Price Cut will Determine Tesla’s Fate Regarding a 2Q23 “Modest” Miss and/or “Huge” Miss. In this note we detail while we expect TSLA’s 2Q23E revs/EPS to come in at $24.4bn/$0.80…

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