Company Notes


July 10, 2025

China’s Shift to a Planned Poly-Si Economy = Light at the End of the Tunnel for Daqo; Upgrade from SELL to BUY; Our New $30.51/shr Yr-End 2025 PT Suggests +61% Upside

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Daqo New Energy (“DQ”) Now a Top Solar Sector BUY? In light of the China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (“MIIT”) new proposed policy around the polysilicon segment, which includes a significant restructuring…

Read More >>

July 7, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): Initiation feedback emphasizes Power Services differentiation; pending Proficy sale

By Austin Wang

We highlight both positive and negative feedback on our initiation but we emphasize that investors agree – analysts simply aren’t doing the work on Power Services despite the abundance of data-points quantifying this compelling opportunity-set….

Read More >>

July 1, 2025

The Senate’s Version of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” Suggests… When it Rains, it Pours for Chinese Solar Parts Suppliers

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The U.S. Senate’s Tax/Spend Bill Makes it a Lot Harder to Use Chinese Solar Products when Installing Solar Domestically – i.e., the U.S. Congress is taking a hard line against Chinese solar panels used in…

Read More >>

June 26, 2025

Tesla’s Supervised “Robotaxi” Launch Has been a “Woeful” Flop

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, we provide on-the-ground feedback from Tesla’s widely acclaimed “Robotaxi” rollout this past Sunday. That is, Tesla’s “launch” has been limited to a handful of its most loyal cult members (not…

Read More >>

June 23, 2025

Initiate GE Vernova (GEV) at BUY – Power Services Tail Wags the Dog

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage of GE Vernova at BUY with a PT of $702.00 even as investors and analysts increasingly step away from this best-in-class power generation OEM story, citing valuation and a slowing event-path, because…

Read More >>

June 17, 2025

Downbeat US Senate Tax-and-Spend Bill Language + Lackluster Apr. ’25 California Sales + Sig. Lease/PPA Exposure = We Downgrade SolarEdge from HOLD to SELL; Our Year-End ’25 PT Remains $6.90/shr (-71% Downside)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Move our Rating on SolarEdge from HOLD to SELL on Surprisingly Bearish Senate Tax-and-Spend Bill Language. With SolarEdge still struggling in the US and European markets (discussed below), the expectation from many solar pundits…

Read More >>

June 17, 2025

Our Analysis of Sunnova’s Hidden “Second Set of Books” + US Senate’s Tax-and-Spend Bill Language = We Downgrade Sunrun from HOLD to SELL; Our Year-End ’25 PT is Now $0.01/shr (-99% Downside)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In the Infamous Words of Famed Children’s Character Porky Pig… “T-T-T-That’s all folks”! In this note, via math and an extremely (simplified) explanation, we detail why, barring SunRun’s ability to (in our opinion) inflate the…

Read More >>

June 16, 2025

GLJ Research Updated Tesla Delivery Forecasts and Model Estimates

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Re-Publishing Our Tesla 2025E-26E Estimates and Model for Maintenance Purposes. In this note (Ex. 1-4) we provide our most recent estimates for TSLA. More specifically, we update our quarterly: (a) delivery ests., (b) revenue ests.,…

Read More >>

June 12, 2025

Westinghouse’s Participation in the Construction of Two Czech Reactors Adds US$170mn to Cameco’s Q2 EBITDA; Yet, U3O8 Spot Risks Demand Caution – Sell the News?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Things Just Keep Getting Better for Cameco. Cameco’s 49% share in Westinghouse is now expected to boost its Q2 results on the back of Westinghouse’s participation in the construction of two new nuclear reactors at…

Read More >>

June 10, 2025

Tesla’s Week 11 China Sales Collapse Further (& miss Consensus by -36.5%), Falling -33.5%/37.4% WoW/QoQ, Respectively; and, What to Expect this Thursday at Tesla’s Austin “Robotaxi” Event

By Gordon L. Johnson II

It’s Now Clear… Tesla has a Demand Problem in China. In this note we detail the collapse in TSLA’s China sales year-to-date (“YTD”), based on both new monthly and weekly data released yesterday/today, despite: (a)…

Read More >>

May 30, 2025

We Upgrade Sunrun to HOLD from SELL on: (a) Recent Collapse in Share Price + (b) Risk that Senate Budget Bill Language Favors Resi Solar = Risk of N-Term/Swift Move Higher in Shares; L-Term, we Still See Core Business as Structurally Flawed (due to RUN understating the O&M expenses associated with its SPVs)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We are Upgrading Sunrun to HOLD from SELL as the “Solar Friendly” Senate is Set to Return from Adjournment Jun. 2nd (i.e., Monday). While we continue to see RUN’s business as structurally flawed (given our…

Read More >>

May 30, 2025

We Upgrade SolarEdge to HOLD from SELL on: (a) Recent Collapse in Share Price + (b) Risk that Senate Budget Bill Language Favors Resi Solar = Risk of N-Term/Swift Move Higher in Shares; L-Term, we Still See Core Business as Structurally Flawed (due to SEDG’s microinveters being too expensive/its lack of innovation in the battery storage market)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We are Upgrading SolarEdge to HOLD from SELL as the “Solar Friendly” Senate is Set to Return from Adjournment Jun. 2nd (i.e., Monday). While we continue to see SEDG’s business as structurally flawed (given our view…

Read More >>

May 29, 2025

A Simple Comparable Company Analysis Suggests Nippon is Overpaying for U.S. Steel by (at least) 63%-to-612%; Our Bet that Trump Would ‘Cave’ was Right (i.e., it’s time to move on); Downgrade from BUY to SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In the Words of Porky Pig… “Ba-Deep, Ba-Deep, That’s All Folks”. We downgrade U.S. Steel’s shares from BUY to SELL, and strongly recommend anyone who purchased when we upgraded to BUY 9/9/24 (when the stock…

Read More >>

May 21, 2025

Does the Bull Thesis on SolarEdge Rest with the Idea that Because the Stock is Down a Lot + the Company Put Up One Quarter of Better Than Expected (yet still negative) Earnings = It’s a BUY? Our 2025E Yr-End PT Edges Higher to $6.90 from $3.90 Prior

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge is Up +70.7% Over the Past Month vs. +15.2% for the S&P 500; is the Move Justified? A few weeks back, SEDG reported 1Q25A sales that beat Cons. by +7.5% and GLJe by 11%….

Read More >>