February 4, 2025
Enphase is Set to Report 4Q24E Earnings After the Close Today. In this note, after checks done, primarily in Europe this week, we have updated our bottoms-up earnings driver model for Module-Level-Performance-Electronics (“MLPE”) bellwether Enphase….
January 28, 2025
Will Earnings be a Positive Catalyst (Similar to 3Q24) or a Negative Catalyst (Similar to 2Q24)? Due to: (a) a record mix of negative-gross-margin Chinese car sales in Q4 (i.e., 39.7% vs. 39.6% in Q3,…
January 23, 2025
Is Jinko Solar Still a Good Short Following its -33.9% Trailing-Twelve-Month Fall (vs. the S&P 500 Rising +25.1% Over the Same Timeframe)? Interestingly, we remind our readers that JKS is guiding its U.S. shipment mix…
January 16, 2025
Does Canadian Solar Still Represent a “Solid Short Play” Following its Collapse Over the Past 2yrs? In this note, we analyze: (1) the capacity for China’s top 9 solar cell makers in 2025E vs. 2025E…
January 7, 2025
Is there a “Trump Put” Play for U.S. Steel Stocks in the Offing? While we believe (strongly) the U.S. economy is in much worse shape than many pundits acknowledge (detailed below), with Trump set to…
January 3, 2025
Tesla Has Stated They Have a Daily View into Real-Time Demand, Unlike Most Other OEMs with Dealerships. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, TSLA has boasted, previously, that because they get real-time data, on a…
December 27, 2024
We Visited a Large Tesla Dealership in Charlotte, NC Yesterday. With weekly auto insurance data available for the Chinese auto market, and daily/monthly insurance registration data available in Europe, the key unknown each quarter as…
December 17, 2024
Today, Goldman Sachs Double Upgraded SolarEdge from SELL to BUY. Goldman Sachs double upgraded SEDG from SELL to BUY with a $19/shr 12-month forward price objective, which compares to our year-end 2025E price target of…
December 17, 2024
Tesla’s Stock has Been on a Tear; is this Indicative of Better Fundamentals, or Simply Options Market Activity/Manipulation? Since 10/23/24, or when TSLA reported slightly better-than-expected 3Q24 results, the stock has surged +116.7% higher; this…
December 11, 2024
Biden Throws “Curveball” into Nippon’s Planned Acquisition of US Steel. Yesterday, before the close, Bloomberg reported that people familiar with matter believe President Biden will block Nippon’s planned $14.1bn acquisition of US Steel (X; BUY)…
December 9, 2024
Is U.S. Steel a “Diamond in the Rough” Right in Plain Sight? In this note, following discussions with government contacts and industry experts, as well as our observations on a number of key (recent) events,…
December 3, 2024
Jinko Solar’s Stock has Surged Since the US Commerce Department’s Release of its Preliminary Anti-Dumping Rates Last Week; is it Justified? In short, when looking at both JKS’: (a) preliminary Malaysian Countervailing Duties (link) of…
November 7, 2024
SolarEdge and the “Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day” Quarter. Last night, after the close, our current top solar short idea, SEDG, reported 3Q24 rev/non-GAAP EPS/free-cash-flow of $260.9mn/-$15.33/-$111.2mn vs. Cons. $273.4mn/-$1.67/-$77.6mn (GLJe $254.4mn/-$1.69/-$108.8mn) – i.e., a herculean…
November 6, 2024
We Downgrade SunRun to SELL on Donald Trump’s U.S. Presidential Victory. With a new IRS Commissioner imminent, we move our rating on SunRun to SELL and re-introduce our 2024E year-end price target of $7.78/shr, or…
October 31, 2024
Cash Incinerating “Science Project” Company Sunnova Exhibits What it Does Best… Burn a Heap Load of Free-Cash-Flow (“FCF”). Yesterday, after the close, cash-incinerating third-party solar EPC/financing science-project company NOVA reported 3Q24 rev/adj.-EPS/FCF of $235mn/-$0.98/-$559.0mn vs….