Company Notes


March 10, 2026

Initiate Nextpower (NXT) at BUY – Customer Consolidation, Vertical SKU Capture, & Franchise Moat Being Priced as Cyclical Equip. Player

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Supermarket Thesis The core insight is structural, not cyclical: NXT’s customers are consolidating, and NXT is one of the only vendors with the execution capability to consolidate their SKUs vertically. This is a supermarket…

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March 5, 2026

Initiate nVent Electric (NVT) at BUY – Investor Day to quantify data center hypergrowth

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage on nVent Electric at BUY w/ a street-high $151PT and estimates to match. We believe that despite management’s best efforts, the analyst community is mismodeling the size and growth of NVT’s liquid…

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March 5, 2026

Initiate Powell Industries (POWL) at HOLD – Execution utilities-focused, data center upside limited

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage of POWL at HOLD with a $450PT as channel checks and management commentary call into question the data center narrative priced into the stock. We model +MSD% upside to sellside numbers, but…

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March 5, 2026

Initiate Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) at BUY – Hyperscaler Credentials Place it Among Premium Peers, $60PT

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage on Solaris Energy Infrastructure at BUY with a $60PT even as BYoG power generation continues to prove itself through incremental contracting at extended durations. Speed-to-power continues to resonate in industry conversations as…

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March 4, 2026

First Solar Q4 Review: Downgrade to HOLD on Guidance Weakness, Backlog Deterioration & Uncertainty Ahead of 232 Clarification

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis FSLR 4Q25 Earnings: Ugly Guide, but the Real Story is What Comes Next The headline: 2026 guidance was a meaningful miss across every metric – revenue, volumes, and EBITDA – and it wasn’t…

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March 3, 2026

Sunrun (RUN): Valuation Methodology – we Set 2026E Year-End Price Objective at $6.73 (-46.3% Downside from Yesterday’s Closing Price); Q&A Below with Two Structured Product Solar ABS Traders (from Feb. 12th, 2026)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis Sunrun is materially overvalued on any rigorous DCF construction – the stock is pricing in an outcome that the underlying cash flow trajectory does not support. Our $6.73 price target is anchored to…

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February 27, 2026

RUN Q4 Review: The Securitization Machine Is Stalling – Revenue Mirage Masks $110M Cash Generation Miss, Tax Equity Freeze, and ABS Market Deterioration

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis Headline beat masks deteriorating unit economics. Revenue inflated by asset-sale accounting. Volume declining. Creation costs rising. 2026E Cash Generation guidance of $350M midpoint is $110M below Street consensus – a material miss being…

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February 24, 2026

Tesla – The Optimus Delusion: Strip Away the Narrative and What’s Left?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis We reiterate our SELL rating and $25.28 price target on TSLA. In this note, we specifically address the question Wall Street’s TSLA bulls refuse to ask honestly: what if Optimus actually works? Our answer, after an…

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February 20, 2026

The Commodity Trap: Fortescue’s Earnings Cliff Is Here

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis We reiterate our SELL rating on Fortescue and adjust our year-end 2026E price target higher to A$15.00 (from A$12.00 prior) ahead of H1 FY26 results on February 25. Our conviction has increased materially…

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February 19, 2026

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) — Research Update

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Thesis: The Emperor Has No Clothes — And the Market Doesn’t Care (Yet) We are reiterating our SELL rating on Tesla with a year-end 2026 price target of $25.28/share. At ~$410, Tesla trades at 382x…

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February 18, 2026

Cameco Corporation/CCJ: 4Q25 Review – Uranium Fundamentals Strengthening; WEC Guidance Soft but Conservative

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis We reiterate our BUY rating on Cameco with an updated C$171.20 price target (prior C$100) – +11% upside from yesterday’s closing price – following strong 4Q25 results that underscored the fundamental tightness in…

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February 10, 2026

CLF Q4 Review: Subdued Demand Renders Results/Guidance Lackluster (as we warned); POSCO Deal Details “Underwhelm”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line. CLF printed 4Q rev/EPS of $4.3bn/-$0.43 vs. Consensus at $4.6bn/-$0.62 (GLJe in line with Street), but the stock sold off for a simpler reason: investors were waiting for clarity on the POSCO MOU…

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February 5, 2026

Enphase Q4 Review: “Hope Euphoria” Sends Shares Soaring 39% Higher; While the Easy Route is to Upgrade, our Checks Point to Storm Clouds on the Horizon; Maintain SELL; PT Edges Lower to $21.70/shr (-58% Downside)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line. Strip out the safe-harbor noise and ENPH’s 1Q26 revenue guide of $235–$265mm merely rubber-stamps its prior ~$250mm soft outlook. The more telling datapoint was the margin guidance: 43.5% in Q1, down 540bps y/y…

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February 3, 2026

Daqo: The Polysilicon Paradox Deepens as China’s Supply Discipline Falls Short – Downgrade to SELL (from BUY)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line. We move our rating on Daqo New Energy from BUY to SELL and lower our 12-month price objective to $18.13/shr (-26% downside from yesterday’s closing price). In what follows, we provide an update…

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January 29, 2026

Tesla Q4 Review: From Hypergrowth to Hope – Is TSLA now an Ex-Growth ~$10bn/yr Cash Incinerator Leaning on Zero-Revenue ‘Promises’ to Defend a Lofty Multiple?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom line: TSLA printed Q4 rev/GAAP EPS of $24.9bn/$0.24 vs. Consensus at $25.1bn/$0.34 (GLJe $24.1bn/$0.24). The headline “beat,” however, came courtesy of the accounting add-backs. Stock-based compensation surged a record $223mn q/q – the highest…

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