Company Notes


January 18, 2026

GE Vernova (BUY) – Mexico awards continue gas power pricing power

By Austin Wang

A recent study conducted by state-owned utility CFE noted that the estimated cost of building 4 combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) had risen by 66% since six months prior (we understand this to be July to…

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January 12, 2026

Cleveland Cliffs: Still the Worst House in a “Troubled” Neighborhood; Reiterate SELL, PT Edges Higher to $9.52/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Near-Term Outlook. At $12.91, CLF trades at ~17.0x our 2026E EV/EBITDA – well north of its 5.0-8.0x historical band. At this altitude, the market is already underwriting a lot of good news: EBITDA above our…

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January 9, 2026

GE Vernova in 2026 (GEV, BUY): New Year, New Debates. Deep dive refreshes next leg for Power Services – PT to $1087, reit BUY

By Austin Wang

We break apart the state of play for GE Vernova, addressing new areas of emphasis out of an accelerative investor day and previewing 4Q (1/28). While we are taking both our estimates and our 12-month…

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January 8, 2026

ERRATUM – Correcting prior report to reflect TESLA’s Q4 Gaap EPS as $0.18 vs $0.24 prior – Q4 Preview: If Autonomy is now a Commodity and Robots Work Elsewhere, What Exactly is Tesla Worth (Detailed/Simplified Sum-of-the-Parts Below)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Changed? The impact to Tesla’s GAAP-EPS, quarterly, from its digital asset holdings is calculated as: ([Bitcoin Price on Last Day of Current Quarter – Bitcoin Price on Last Day of Prior Quarter] * Units…

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January 7, 2026

Q4 Preview: If Autonomy is now a Commodity and Robots Work Elsewhere, What Exactly is Tesla Worth (Detailed/Simplified Sum-of-the-Parts Below)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom line: Adjusting Q4 for reality rather than narrative – 418K in Q4 deliveries, a Q4 mix-shift toward heavily discounted Model Ys outside of China (with prices drifting from $39.9k in the U.S. to as…

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December 23, 2025

Primoris (PRIM, BUY): Direct to hyperscaler? Google-Intersect tie-up implications, reit BUY

By Austin Wang

Google announced a landmark deal to acquire Intersect Power, a tier 1 clean energy developer and one of PRIM’s largest customers. We break apart this monumental shift in energy procurement strategy and what it means…

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December 12, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL): Checks show 800V DC deficiency as Nvidia blesses the new entrants flooding the product gap

By Austin Wang

We sat down with one of Vertiv’s private competitors in PDUs and liquid cooling to talk through the competitive landscape for the 800V offerings required to serve Vera Rubin architectures. He emphasized that a lack…

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December 10, 2025

Tesla’s Autonomy Mirage: Crowdsourced Hype, Regulatory Reality, and Another Year-End Robotaxi That Won’t Arrive

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Piper Sandler Make a Wild Claim Based on Cherry-Picked Data? Tesla’s share price outperformed in yesterday’s trading session, which many attributed to a Wall Street analyst report from Piper Sandler, which concluded, based on…

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December 9, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY) – Power goes SUPERSONIC as GEV updates 2028 floor ahead of buyside target – FLASH

By Austin Wang

We want to call out both the accelerative floor on long-term targets for ’28 and validation on our Power Services thesis. First, GEV guided ’28 EBITDA to $10.4bn vs. our $9.8bn (backing out Prolec) and…

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December 5, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – Greater volumes + bullish contracting should shrug off lower pricing, 3Q Review: PT to $445

By Austin Wang

We spoke with management in the wake of Argan’s F3Q earnings update. We believe investors are missing the forest for the trees, and focusing on orders pricing as opposed to management’s emphasis on staffing capacity…

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December 4, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – 3Q First take: Orders miss on pricing

By Austin Wang

Initial take: we back out reported F3Q revs of $251.2mm to get to ~$1.3bn in orders vs. our ~$1.5bn estimate given Basin Ranch and Permian Basin disclosures – backing out $40mm in non-Power Services orders,…

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December 3, 2025

3Q25 Results Disappointed on Sales Timing; Yet Strong Q4 Guide and the “Sprott Put” Keep us BUY Rated; PT Edges Higher to C$99.74/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Happened in Q3? CCJ served up a quarter that fell sharply short of expectations – Q3 adj. EBITDA missed our estimate by 8% – and the culprit isn’t exactly mysterious. Uranium and fuel-services sales…

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November 25, 2025

AGX – F3Q Preview: Focusing beyond the bookings, PT to $447

By Austin Wang

Argan will report F3Q’26 earnings next Thursday, Dec. 4th, after market close; we see the focus very much on Power Services order $’s for pricing read-thru but also on management’s commentary on a compelling opportunity…

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November 25, 2025

How Q4 Car Deliveries Shaping up with Nearly Two-Thirds of the Quarter Over & is Tesla’s GAAP Earnings at Risk of Turning Negative?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Just How ‘Good’ – or More Accurately, How Bad – Are Tesla’s Auto Sales Trending With Nearly Two Months of Q4 Now in the Rearview? When we strip out the optimism, the spin, and the…

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November 23, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – CEO 1×1 takeaways + feedback on our upgrade, reit BUY

By Austin Wang

We sat down with Argan CEO David Watson to discuss our recent upgrade of Argan shares as intra-regional staffing demonstrates upside to management’s previously messaged ceiling on gas generation upside. Management validated our thesis, emphasizing…

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