Company Notes


November 25, 2025

AGX – F3Q Preview: Focusing beyond the bookings, PT to $447

By Austin Wang

Argan will report F3Q’26 earnings next Thursday, Dec. 4th, after market close; we see the focus very much on Power Services order $’s for pricing read-thru but also on management’s commentary on a compelling opportunity…

Read More >>

November 25, 2025

How Q4 Car Deliveries Shaping up with Nearly Two-Thirds of the Quarter Over & is Tesla’s GAAP Earnings at Risk of Turning Negative?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Just How ‘Good’ – or More Accurately, How Bad – Are Tesla’s Auto Sales Trending With Nearly Two Months of Q4 Now in the Rearview? When we strip out the optimism, the spin, and the…

Read More >>

November 23, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – CEO 1×1 takeaways + feedback on our upgrade, reit BUY

By Austin Wang

We sat down with Argan CEO David Watson to discuss our recent upgrade of Argan shares as intra-regional staffing demonstrates upside to management’s previously messaged ceiling on gas generation upside. Management validated our thesis, emphasizing…

Read More >>

November 14, 2025

CSIQ Q3 Review: Does Canadian Solar’s “Brazen” 2026 Outlook Position it as an Even Better Short?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Happened? Yesterday, due mainly to a few unexpected storage project sales, CSIQ reported Q3 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $1.5bn/-$0.58 vs. GLJe $1.5bn/-$0.41 (Cons. $1.4bn/-$0.53), and e-STORAGE sales of 2.7GWh (above its guidance of 2.1-2.3GWh). Yet,…

Read More >>

November 13, 2025

Primoris (PRIM, BUY): Breaking apart the bookings blip – 3Q Refresh

By Austin Wang

PRIM posted a 0.7x trailing 12 months book-to-bill to overshadow a safe-harbor driven beat-and-raise quarter. On the call, management cited policy uncertainty. Clients we speak with seem to be moving to the sidelines, but we…

Read More >>

November 12, 2025

CSIQ Q3 Preview 2.0: In the Words of Warren Buffett… “When you See a Fat Pitch, Take a Large Swing”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Investors Positioned the Wrong Way Ahead of CSIQ’s 3Q25 Results? CSIQ has more than doubled (+114%) in the past month, compared to just +4.5% for the S&P 500 – an astonishing move considering that…

Read More >>

November 10, 2025

RUN Q3 Review: Cash Gen Boosted by Asset Sales; Bull Case Hard to Disprove N-Term; Maintain Neutral Rating w/ Positive Bias

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? All investors seem to care about when it comes to RUN is its whacky “cash generation” results/guidance – i.e., RUN’s definition of cash flow, which includes debt issued and, for the first time…

Read More >>

November 10, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – Upgrade to BUY: A 2nd Gas Gen Deal Has Hit the F3Q Book, PT to $369

By Austin Wang

Argan’s Gemma Power Systems announced full notice to proceed on an 860MW gas-fired power plant will enter into F3Q26 backlog. Conversations with Gemma’s largest competitors lead us to believe this project is Vistra’s Monahans, Texas…

Read More >>

November 6, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL): Vertiv to bolt-on Services as competitor enters liquid cooling in $10bn acquisition

By Austin Wang

We review Vertiv’s announcement of a deal for PurgeRite, a services provider specializing in liquid cooling, but our heads are turned more by the strategic implications of Eaton’s (ETN, not rated) agreement to acquire Boyd…

Read More >>

November 4, 2025

First Solar Q3 Review: Despite Troubling 6.6GW Contract Cancellation, the “Story” Remains Too Strong to Ignore; PT to $314.43/shr (+18.3% Upside); Reiterate BUY Rating & Positive Bias

By Gordon L. Johnson II

WHAT’S UP? Last Thursday, FSLR reported 3Q25 results that – by any rational measure – were underwhelming. Revs came in at $1.595bn with GAAP EPS of $4.24 vs. GLJe $1.589bn/$4.26 (Cons. $1.608bn/$4.31) – a miss….

Read More >>

October 31, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): High Voltage Opportunity Takes Us Higher – 3Q Review

By Austin Wang

GE Vernova published a positive 3Q update and announced plans to acquire the remaining 50% stake in its North America transformer business, a 50/50 joint venture with Xignux, targeting a mid-2026 close. At 13.2x guided…

Read More >>

October 31, 2025

Argan (AGX, HOLD) – A Tale of Two CCGTs

By Austin Wang

We review the implications of two recent CCGT project awards as Argan announces a major CCGT award while another goes to a consortium formed by generation new entrant Quanta and a revived Argan competitor. Overall,…

Read More >>

October 29, 2025

Q3 Review: Does Enphase’s 1Q26E Revenue Guidance Underpin Problems Ahead for U.S. Residential Solar Players?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

WHAT’S UP? ENPH just did something unusual for a solar company – it told investors the truth. The company reported Q3 revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $410.4mn/$0.90, handily above Consensus at $365mn/$0.65 (GLJe $362mn/$0.58). The…

Read More >>

October 28, 2025

Enphase Q3 Preview: Consensus is Currently Modeling +69% Upside to Q3 GAAP EBIT Guidance; Could that Prove a bit “Rich”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Wall Street Optimism High Headed into Q3 Results Tonight; is it Warranted? Investors appear downright euphoric heading into ENPH’s Q3 print tonight. The problem? The math doesn’t support the mood. On 7/22 management guided to…

Read More >>

October 23, 2025

Tesla Q3 Review – Earnings Fall Short & Musk Pushes “Moonshot Pipe Dreams” (FSD + Optimus) into Distant Future; Our New Model Suggests 4Q25E/1Q26E will be a Horror Show

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s Q3 Results Disappoint; Musk’s Promised Future Slips Further into Fantasy. TSLA reported Q3 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $28.095bn/$0.50 vs. Cons $26.365bn/$0.54 (GLJe $27.8bn/$0.59), or a bottom-line miss despite a sizeable top-line beat. The problem? Lower…

Read More >>