Company Notes


October 29, 2024

JinkoSolar 3Q24 Earnings Preview: Do Chinese Parts Suppliers Have a Q3 “Big Trouble in Little China” Problem?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

JinkoSolar Reports Q3 Earnings Before the Market Opens Tomorrow. Ahead of JKS’ 3Q24 earnings report this Wed., below, using intra-quarter movements in solar poly-Si, wafer, cell, and module prices (as well as the company’s Q3…

Read More >>

October 28, 2024

Upgrade to HOLD on Risk Into Earnings; Long-Term Stance on Core Business Being a Cash-Incinerator Unchanged

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sunrun Reports Earnings Next Week on Thursday. Ahead of RUN’s 3Q24E results next Thursday, in this note, we detail why we believe being short the stock (into earnings) carries with it quite a bit of…

Read More >>

October 24, 2024

Tesla Q3 Review – Margins Surge on FSD/ZEV Credit Sale & What Appears to be More Capitalized Expenses (Similar to WorldCom/HealthSouth); & E. Musk Guides to Record Q4 Deliveries of >514.9K Cars

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Reports Strong Unaudited Q3 Numbers, and Guides to Record Q4 Delivery Growth vs. Tepid Delivery Data Thus Far. Yesterday, after the close, TSLA reported rev/adj.-EPS of $25.2bn/$0.72 vs. Cons. $25.4bn/$0.60 (GLJe $25.4bn/$0.49). Furthermore, TSLA…

Read More >>

October 23, 2024

A Financial Reporter Asked Us About the Old Maxim “You Should Never Bet Against Elon Musk”; in the Below, we Provide our Answer

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Early This AM We Got the Age-Old Question Around Tesla From a Prominent Financial Reporter. Around 3:13am this morning, while GLJ was tending to 4.8-month old GLJ Jr. (for the 3rd time since going to…

Read More >>

October 22, 2024

Enphase 3Q24 Earnings Review: The Bigger They Are (ENPH Trades at a 36.6x P/E), The Harder They Fall (ENPH’s Q4 Guidance Misses by a “Nautical Mile”)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Enphase is the Solar Darling of Both Wall Street (i.e., the Sell-Side) and the Hamptons “Elite” (i.e., the Buy-Side). When looking at the current distribution of Wall Street ratings for ENPH, we note 22 BUYS,…

Read More >>

October 17, 2024

Tesla Q3 Preview – We See a -18.3% Adj.-EPS Miss on Deck & a Hypothetical Fair Value of ~$60/shr (Even When Giving E. Musk Credit for His Perpetually Delayed Robotaxi “Promise”)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We See a Significant Q3 Adj.-EPS Miss on Deck, as Well as Q3 Free Cash Flow of -$18mn vs. the Current Cons. Est. of +$1.635bn. Based on the analysis herein, we believe TSLA is slated…

Read More >>

October 8, 2024

What if the Cavalry (i.e., the “Magical Rebound” Wall Street Typically Predicts for Fallen Solar Stars) Isn’t Coming? Is SolarEdge Still a Good/Great Short Following its Recent Acute Slide?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

SolarEdge Still Boasts 4 BUYS, 28 HOLDS, w/ just 5 SELLS (despite collapsing -78.2% YTD vs. +19.4% for the S&P 500 YTD), and an Avg. Forward 12-Month Price Target of $32.45 (i.e., +58.9% upside from…

Read More >>

September 24, 2024

We See Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Coming in Below Consensus’ 461.5K Est. & the Buyside’s >470K “Whispher”; Our Work Points to 456.6K in Q3, Up +2.9% QoQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Things Would Be Even Worse Without TSLA’s 1.99% 6yr APR Financing Offer in U.S./Canada. Based on the latest China data from early this morning (discussed below), updates from the 6 countries that report daily sales…

Read More >>

September 24, 2024

We See Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Coming in Below Consensus’ 461.5K Est. & the Buyside’s >470K “Whispher”; Our Work Points to 456.6K in Q3, Up +2.9% QoQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Things Would Be Even Worse Without TSLA’s 1.99% 6yr APR Financing Offer in U.S./Canada. Based on the latest China data from early this morning (discussed below), updates from the 6 countries that report daily sales…

Read More >>

September 20, 2024

Iron Ore Price Downside Risk + Pending CAPEX Step-Up = Keep us Cautious on N-Term Outlook/Fundamentals; SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, Where Do We Stand on Fortescue and How Did its FY24 Results Impact our Outlook? Our SELL rating on FMG has been predicated on our negative 2024E-25E outlook for iron ore prices, as well…

Read More >>

September 12, 2024

Are Attendees at the RE+ Renewable Energy Conference in Anaheim, CA Correct to Say the European Solar Market is a “Mess” – Fireside Chat w/ Head of European Sales for Huawei

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Are Our European “On-the-Ground” Contacts Saying About the State of Solar Demand in Europe? Following comments from our meetings at RE+ in Anaheim, CA this week (link), we had the opportunity to catch up…

Read More >>

September 10, 2024

While We Acknowledge Enphase Has Entered the Recovery Phase, at its Current 26.9x NTM P/E Multiple, is it All More Than “Priced in”, Suggesting the Valuation Remains Far Too Rich?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Acknowledge Enphase has Entered its Recovery Phase… But Does that Make it a BUY? Enphase reported 2Q24 sales of $303.5mn, missing Consensus’ est. of $309.9mn, but guided 3Q24E to $390mn (at the mid-point), suggesting…

Read More >>

September 9, 2024

Applying a Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation Approach (Which Values the Company With or Without Nippon M&A) We See Sig. N-Term Upside; Upgrade to BUY w/ $38.57/shr PT

By Gordon L. Johnson II

U.S. Steel’s Stock Price has Come Down a Lot, but Does that Create a Buying Opportunity? Since peaking at $49.59/shr 12/18/23, U.S. Steel’s (X; BUY) shares have fell -36.9% vs. the S&P 500 being up…

Read More >>

September 6, 2024

Is The State of California “Brewing” Up a Threat that Could Prove Existential for the Residential Rooftop Solar Industry… Unbeknownst to Solar Stock/ABS Investors?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California is Considering Retroactively Cutting NEM 1.0 and 2.0 Benefits… But Why? As seen here, California is currently considering shifting NEM 1.0 and 2.0 customers, who pay ~2c/kWh for power, to the less advantageous NEM…

Read More >>

August 14, 2024

Is Another “Uranium Bull Run” Fated… Sooner, Even, Than Many Realize?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is it Time to “Re-Up” the Nuclear Bull Thesis? In this note, we analyze the seasonality associated with the monthly purchase of U3O8 (in both volume and number of transactions, in our attempt to address…

Read More >>