Company Notes


August 12, 2025

Q2 Review: Solid Results and Outlook; U.S. Government Offers “Helping Hand” Yet Again; PT Rises to $214.06; BUY

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Solid Results/Outlook. FSLR’s reported solid Q2 results, with both revs and EPS ahead of expectations. And, while the company recorded negative net bookings in 1H25 (due to 1.1GW of cancellations in Q2), FSLR has since…

Read More >>

August 8, 2025

Sunrun Seems to Be Betting the IRS Is Too Dumb to Notice a Definition Change Worth Billions in Tax Credits

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Sunrun Counting on the IRS to Be as Inept with Safe Harboring as It Has Been with the Recursive ITC? Earlier this week, we highlighted Sunrun’s own guidance that its inventory will balloon from…

Read More >>

August 8, 2025

Despite Elon Musk’s Touting of the Spectacular Capabilities of Tesla’s Dojo CPU Just Last Month, & Morgan Stanley Currently Valuing it at $500bn, Last Night we Learned the Program has Been Terminated

By Gordon L. Johnson II

All 20 members of Tesla’s Dojo team – including its leader, Peter Bannon – have left the company to join a startup called DensityAI (yes, the entire team). Last night, we learned that the lion’s…

Read More >>

August 7, 2025

SunRun’s Safe Harbor Guidance Suggests a “Beavis and Butt-Head Bank” Exists, and is Chomping at the Bit to Incinerate $1bn in Cash

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, Despite: Reporting 2Q25A Op. Cash Flow of -$293mn (Cons. -$142mn), 2Q25A Free-Cash-Flow of -$985mn (Cons. -$565mn), The Trump Administration’s Ongoing Attempts to Shut Down the U.S. Solar Industry, Seeing All its Peers Recently Go…

Read More >>

August 5, 2025

Are “Surging” Gas Turbine Order Books and the Swell in Stocks Like GEV Vernova Driving the Entire Power Derivatives Trade (to Include Nuclear Stocks) Higher?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Cameco “Unfairly” Benefitting from the Explosion in Gas Turbine Order Books Resulting from Simmering AI CAPEX Spend? Last week, Cameco reported 2Q25A rev/non-GAAP EPS of C$877mn/C$0.74 vs. GLJe’s ests. of C$801/C$0.43 (Cons C$825/C$0.34), or…

Read More >>

July 30, 2025

Was News of Both: (a) China Potentially Rationalizing Away 406KMt of Poly-Si Capacity (~23% of 2025E Global Solar Demand) + (b) Spot Poly-Si Prices Surging +9% in Last Night’s Trading Session = ‘Missed’ by Western “China ADR Investors”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Western American Depository Receipt (“ADR”) Investors Missing the Forest for the Trees? Despite a plethora of incremental global poly-Si news (today/yesterday), because the Invesco Solar TAN ETF is down today (where NEXTracker, or the…

Read More >>

July 24, 2025

Tesla 2Q25 Review – Elon Musk’s Lack of Usual “Puffery” on Q2 Conf. Call + Guidance that 4Q25E-2Q26E Could be “Rough” + -89%/-42% YoY Fall in Q2 Free-Cash-Flow/Op. Income = “Big” Problems Ahead for Struggling Auto Maker Trading at 181x Forward P/E

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Take on Tesla’s 2Q25A Results. While TSLA reported Q2 top-line sales and non-GAAP adj. EPS that missed Cons. ests. – i.e., Cons. ests. that were revised sharply lower through 2Q25, lowering the “bar” for…

Read More >>

July 23, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): “Buy-the-news” – our key takeaways beyond the numbers, reit BUY

By Austin Wang

Our preview flagged incremental buyers waiting on the sidelines to buy this print – +LDD% move as of publication affirms both the viability of this narrative post-earnings AND the incrementality of this update. There just…

Read More >>

July 22, 2025

Enphase 2Q25 Earnings Preview – With Our Checks Pointing to Microinverter Unit Orders Falling Below Installers’ Expectations in Both the U.S. & Europe in Q2/Q3, we See a Q2 Rev/Non-GAAP EPS Miss as Likely; SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Enphase a (Good) Short into Tonight’s Earnings Report? Betting against heavily shorted solar stocks (i.e., ENPH, with 26.469mn shares sold short at present, or 20.88% of the float, currently boasts its highest level of…

Read More >>

July 22, 2025

Tesla 2Q25 Earnings Preview – We See Results Coming in Largely In line Due to Bitcoin Gain + Aggressive FSD Revenue Recognition Offsetting Neg. FOREX Hit + Margin Slashing Rate Buy-Downs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla 2Q25E Earnings Preview. In this note, we adjust our 2Q25E TSLA model after our review of: (a) our expectation for an increase in gross profit/car sold QoQ as other cars sold saw price increases…

Read More >>

July 16, 2025

How’s Demand for SunRun’s Most Recent Asset-Backed-Security Solar Bond (SUNRN 2025-2 Solar Lease/PPA ABS) “Faring”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… What’s the Update on SunRun’s SUNRN 2025-2 Solar Lease/PPA ABS Bond? In our attempt to keep tabs on the state of affairs in the solar Asset-Backed-Security (“ABS”) space, below we provide visibility into what…

Read More >>

July 15, 2025

Barring A Divestment of Its Core Operations, Given CSI Solar is Incorporated in China, we Believe Incremental Projects in Canadian Solar’s Recurrent Segment (i.e., the bulk of its valuation) are Subject to FEOC Restrictions, Meaning they are Worth Materially Less

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Canadian Solar Incorporated in Canada or the People’s Republic of China (“PRC”)? When we asked popular artificial intelligence applications OpenAI and xAI where Canadian Solar (“CSIQ”) is incorporated, the answer from both was Canada….

Read More >>

July 11, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): 2Q25 Preview – Quantified commentary accrues to narrative quality, earnings call to outweigh ’25 guidance

By Austin Wang

GEV reports second quarter earnings on 7/23 – the focus remains on the long-term narrative with equipment slot contracting the focus for Power & Electrification. Although the stock up +16% in the last 30 days,…

Read More >>

July 10, 2025

China’s Shift to a Planned Poly-Si Economy = Light at the End of the Tunnel for Daqo; Upgrade from SELL to BUY; Our New $30.51/shr Yr-End 2025 PT Suggests +61% Upside

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is Daqo New Energy (“DQ”) Now a Top Solar Sector BUY? In light of the China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (“MIIT”) new proposed policy around the polysilicon segment, which includes a significant restructuring…

Read More >>

July 7, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): Initiation feedback emphasizes Power Services differentiation; pending Proficy sale

By Austin Wang

We highlight both positive and negative feedback on our initiation but we emphasize that investors agree – analysts simply aren’t doing the work on Power Services despite the abundance of data-points quantifying this compelling opportunity-set….

Read More >>