Company Notes


April 29, 2026

Enphase (ENPH) – Headline Beat Masks an Underlying Disaster: U.S. Sell-Through Down 48% Q/Q, 2Q Guide Misses by 4%, Batteries Miss by 27%

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line Enphase delivered the kind of “beat” that does not survive contact with the second page. Headline 1Q26 revenue of $282.9M printed in-line (-0.3% vs. consensus $283.8M), and the optical (non-GAAP) OPEX line drove…

Read More >>

April 27, 2026

Sungrow 1Q Miss: Storage Margin Pool Cracks — Trade Implications for JKS, CSIQ, DQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What Changed This Morning Early this morning, Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) reported 1Q26 net income of RMB 2.3B versus Bloomberg consensus of RMB 3.32B — a 31% miss and -40% YoY. Management cites intensifying…

Read More >>

April 23, 2026

Tesla (TSLA) 1Q26 Review – Curtain Call: How Tesla Manufactured One More Positive Print Before the “Horrifying” Cash Burn Commences

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line Tesla reported 1Q26 revenue of $22.387B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.41, optically a modest beat. This “beat”, however, was entirely manufactured. Stripping out management-disclosed one-time items — i.e., $230M of auto warranty true-downs…

Read More >>

April 21, 2026

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) – We See a Sizeable Q1 Sales/EPS Miss on Tap; Guidance Also Appears Set to Disappoint; Maintain SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Executive Summary Tesla reports 1Q26 results tomorrow after the close, and in our view, this print is just as much about the headline numbers as it is the forward commentary. The consensus calls for 1Q26…

Read More >>

April 17, 2026

Sunrun (RUN) – Supply Chain Channel Check Points to Demand Air Pocket; Structural Questions Emerge on Residential Solar Business Model

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Summary We conducted a channel check with a senior executive at APsystems (APS), a tier-one microinverter and module-level power electronics (MLPE) supplier to the US residential solar market. The conversation followed the Chapter 11 bankruptcy…

Read More >>

April 16, 2026

Sunrun (RUN) – Freedom Forever Bankruptcy Validates GLJ Solar Resi Bear Thesis: Affiliate Channel Collapse Exposes Structural Vulnerabilities

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Summary The Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of Freedom Forever, LLC on April 15, 2026, coupled with the Texas Attorney General fraud investigation into Sunrun and Freedom Forever, LLC (for violations of the Deceptive Trade…

Read More >>

April 13, 2026

JinkoSolar (JKS) 4Q25 Preview: Our Cost Driver Model Suggests a “Margin Shocker” is on Tap for JKS’ 1Q26E Guidance

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis Ahead of JKS’s 4Q25 Earnings Report This Thursday, Updating Our Bottom-Up Cost Driver Model for Intra-Quarter Commodity Prices, Global Demand Data, and Our On-the-Ground U.S. Installer Channel Checks, We See a Sizeable Guidance…

Read More >>

April 8, 2026

Tesla (TSLA) – The Options-Driven Mirage – What Happens When the Gamma Fuel “Runs Dry”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Executive Summary This note presents evidence that Tesla’s (TSLA) share price has been significantly and systematically elevated over the past six years by an options market structure uniquely dependent on aggressive retail call buying —…

Read More >>

April 2, 2026

Tesla (TSLA) – 1Q26 Deliveries Flash: Demand Weakness Hidden in Plain Sight

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Record Inventory Build, Energy Storage Collapse, and a Robotaxi Program Losing Its Engineering Leadership Ahead of Purported Launch Reinforce Our Sell Thesis GLJ Research View GLJ Research View Tesla’s 1Q26 delivery report is materially worse…

Read More >>

March 31, 2026

Sunrun (RUN) Channel Check – Reading the Remittance Data: What 60% CNLs and 10% Recovery Rates Mean for Sunrun’s Next Deal

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis The March 20, 2026 Intex/Guggenheim ABS surveillance data (Ex. 4) — reviewed and confirmed through a proprietary channel discussion with a senior structured products professional — is the most important document in the…

Read More >>

March 30, 2026

Tesla (TSLA) – Q1’26 Delivery Preview

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Conclusion We reiterate our Sell rating and $24.86 12-month price target on Tesla (TSLA). Our final Q1 2026 delivery model — incorporating GLJ’s proprietary VIN-based US production channel check, CPCA/CNEVPost China production and delivery…

Read More >>

March 26, 2026

Sunrun (RUN) Channel Check Update – Optimizing for Last Cycle: Why RUN’s “Wall Street Strategy” Is a Death Sentence; PT Falls to $4.63/shr (vs. $6.73 prior)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

I. Investment Thesis We are maintaining our SELL rating on Sunrun (RUN) with an updated price target of $4.63, implying approximately 63% downside from current levels. Our conviction has strengthened following a direct channel check…

Read More >>

March 19, 2026

CANADIAN SOLAR 4Q25 EARNINGS QUICK TAKE: The Watt Hits the Fan Redux – A Miss on Every Line That Matters, a Guide That Confesses, and a JKS Read-Through That Should Terrify the Bulls; CSIQ Shares Down -13.9% Pre-Market

By Gordon L. Johnson II

(a) The Quarter – A Clean Miss Dressed Up in Project Asset Language Q4 revenue of $1.217B missed the $1.355B Consensus estimate by ~10% — a wide miss for what is supposed to be a…

Read More >>

March 18, 2026

Jinko Solar (JKS; SELL) – The “Watt Hits the Fan”: Rising Costs, Falling ASPs, and a Storage Story That Doesn’t Add Up – Reiterate SELL; PT to $12.10/shr (-51% downside)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis We reiterate our SELL rating on JinkoSolar (JKS US) and adjust our 2026E yr-end PT modestly higher to $12.10 (-51% downside) from $10.15 prior on our updated estimates. The March 12, 2026 PV…

Read More >>

March 16, 2026

Cleveland-Cliffs Update – Sell the Seasonal Peak: HRC’s Best Days Are Behind It for 2026

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Thesis – Estimate & Macro Update We reiterate our SELL rating on CLF and keep our 12-month price target flat at $9.42/share — reflecting the February 10 GLJ update note valuation methodology (13.0x 2026E…

Read More >>