May 30, 2025
We are Upgrading Sunrun to HOLD from SELL as the “Solar Friendly” Senate is Set to Return from Adjournment Jun. 2nd (i.e., Monday). While we continue to see RUN’s business as structurally flawed (given our…
May 30, 2025
We are Upgrading SolarEdge to HOLD from SELL as the “Solar Friendly” Senate is Set to Return from Adjournment Jun. 2nd (i.e., Monday). While we continue to see SEDG’s business as structurally flawed (given our view…
May 29, 2025
In the Words of Porky Pig… “Ba-Deep, Ba-Deep, That’s All Folks”. We downgrade U.S. Steel’s shares from BUY to SELL, and strongly recommend anyone who purchased when we upgraded to BUY 9/9/24 (when the stock…
May 28, 2025
Cleveland Cliffs is Currently Looking into the Abyss of Market Share Losses and Waning U.S. Auto Demand. On the positive side (if one is an optimist), after two consecutive quarters of EBITDA losses, CLF is…
May 21, 2025
SolarEdge is Up +70.7% Over the Past Month vs. +15.2% for the S&P 500; is the Move Justified? A few weeks back, SEDG reported 1Q25A sales that beat Cons. by +7.5% and GLJe by 11%….
May 7, 2025
Even the Tesla “Faithful” are Beginning to Realize the Stock Price Could be in (Big) Trouble Should its Car Sales Continue to Falter in 2025. When a Mag7 stock (i.e., TSLA) trades at 138x its…
May 1, 2025
What Happened? FSLR’s stock came under pressure yesterday following reduced 2025E guidance provided earlier this week, which was worse than expected as we warned in our 4/15 note titled: “Are Investors Underestimating the Top Twelve…
April 25, 2025
1Q25 Results/GLJ’s Take. Earlier this week, ENPH reported results that missed expectations on a number of fronts, namely: (a) when adjusting out safe harbor, 1Q25A “core” revenues of ~$302mn were below Consensus and guidance, (b)…
April 21, 2025
We have Updated our Bottoms-Up Tesla Earnings Driver Model and See a “Big Problem” w/ the Current 1Q25E non-GAAP EPS Consensus Est. In the following update, when considering the impact(s) from: (a) TSLA’s transition from…
April 17, 2025
Is Consensus Making a Grave Error in its Estimate for Tesla’s 2Q25E Global Auto Sales? The best investing opportunities arise when there are material dislocations between what Consensus expects vs. what is most likely to…
April 2, 2025
At the Margin, a Company’s Actual Results vs. Wall Street’s Estimates Determine the Path of the Stock Price. In this note, following recent on-the-ground U.S. solar residential market checks, we seek to answer if the…
March 31, 2025
GLJ Tesla 1Q25E and 2025E Delivery and Production Estimate Update. While we have, previously, generalized TSLA’s 1Q25E deliveries at 360K-370K, in what follows we provide the thought process around the evolution of our TESLA 1Q25E/2025E…
March 12, 2025
Cameco Recently Reported Better Than Expected 4Q24A Results. A few weeks back, Cameco reported adjusted 4Q24 EPS of $0.36, besting Consensus’ $0.33. More important, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of C$524mn (+70% QoQ and +56%…
February 27, 2025
Cleveland Cliffs Reports 4Q24 Results that (Largely) Disappoint. This week, CLF reported 4Q24 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $4.3bn/-$0.68 vs. Cons’ $4.3bn/-$0.69 ests. (GLJe $4.4bn/-$0.53). The company also posted lackluster free-cash-flow (“FCF”) of -$677mn, missing the Street’s…
February 12, 2025
Tesla’s Week 6 China Sales Update Yesterday = No Bueno; U.S./European Sales Show (very) Troubling Signs; and June Unsupervised Robotaxi Rollout Appears Set to Severely Disappoint. In this note, we update TSLA’s global sales trend…