Company Notes


November 13, 2025

Primoris (PRIM, BUY): Breaking apart the bookings blip – 3Q Refresh

By Austin Wang

PRIM posted a 0.7x trailing 12 months book-to-bill to overshadow a safe-harbor driven beat-and-raise quarter. On the call, management cited policy uncertainty. Clients we speak with seem to be moving to the sidelines, but we…

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November 12, 2025

CSIQ Q3 Preview 2.0: In the Words of Warren Buffett… “When you See a Fat Pitch, Take a Large Swing”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Investors Positioned the Wrong Way Ahead of CSIQ’s 3Q25 Results? CSIQ has more than doubled (+114%) in the past month, compared to just +4.5% for the S&P 500 – an astonishing move considering that…

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November 10, 2025

RUN Q3 Review: Cash Gen Boosted by Asset Sales; Bull Case Hard to Disprove N-Term; Maintain Neutral Rating w/ Positive Bias

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? All investors seem to care about when it comes to RUN is its whacky “cash generation” results/guidance – i.e., RUN’s definition of cash flow, which includes debt issued and, for the first time…

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November 10, 2025

Argan (AGX, BUY) – Upgrade to BUY: A 2nd Gas Gen Deal Has Hit the F3Q Book, PT to $369

By Austin Wang

Argan’s Gemma Power Systems announced full notice to proceed on an 860MW gas-fired power plant will enter into F3Q26 backlog. Conversations with Gemma’s largest competitors lead us to believe this project is Vistra’s Monahans, Texas…

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November 6, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL): Vertiv to bolt-on Services as competitor enters liquid cooling in $10bn acquisition

By Austin Wang

We review Vertiv’s announcement of a deal for PurgeRite, a services provider specializing in liquid cooling, but our heads are turned more by the strategic implications of Eaton’s (ETN, not rated) agreement to acquire Boyd…

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November 4, 2025

First Solar Q3 Review: Despite Troubling 6.6GW Contract Cancellation, the “Story” Remains Too Strong to Ignore; PT to $314.43/shr (+18.3% Upside); Reiterate BUY Rating & Positive Bias

By Gordon L. Johnson II

WHAT’S UP? Last Thursday, FSLR reported 3Q25 results that – by any rational measure – were underwhelming. Revs came in at $1.595bn with GAAP EPS of $4.24 vs. GLJe $1.589bn/$4.26 (Cons. $1.608bn/$4.31) – a miss….

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October 31, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): High Voltage Opportunity Takes Us Higher – 3Q Review

By Austin Wang

GE Vernova published a positive 3Q update and announced plans to acquire the remaining 50% stake in its North America transformer business, a 50/50 joint venture with Xignux, targeting a mid-2026 close. At 13.2x guided…

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October 31, 2025

Argan (AGX, HOLD) – A Tale of Two CCGTs

By Austin Wang

We review the implications of two recent CCGT project awards as Argan announces a major CCGT award while another goes to a consortium formed by generation new entrant Quanta and a revived Argan competitor. Overall,…

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October 29, 2025

Q3 Review: Does Enphase’s 1Q26E Revenue Guidance Underpin Problems Ahead for U.S. Residential Solar Players?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

WHAT’S UP? ENPH just did something unusual for a solar company – it told investors the truth. The company reported Q3 revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $410.4mn/$0.90, handily above Consensus at $365mn/$0.65 (GLJe $362mn/$0.58). The…

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October 28, 2025

Enphase Q3 Preview: Consensus is Currently Modeling +69% Upside to Q3 GAAP EBIT Guidance; Could that Prove a bit “Rich”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Wall Street Optimism High Headed into Q3 Results Tonight; is it Warranted? Investors appear downright euphoric heading into ENPH’s Q3 print tonight. The problem? The math doesn’t support the mood. On 7/22 management guided to…

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October 23, 2025

Tesla Q3 Review – Earnings Fall Short & Musk Pushes “Moonshot Pipe Dreams” (FSD + Optimus) into Distant Future; Our New Model Suggests 4Q25E/1Q26E will be a Horror Show

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s Q3 Results Disappoint; Musk’s Promised Future Slips Further into Fantasy. TSLA reported Q3 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $28.095bn/$0.50 vs. Cons $26.365bn/$0.54 (GLJe $27.8bn/$0.59), or a bottom-line miss despite a sizeable top-line beat. The problem? Lower…

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October 22, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL) – 3Q25 Review: Rubin beat-and-raise quarter meet peak market noise

By Austin Wang

Management posted a positive update we believe met elevated buyside expectations. Vertiv continues to realize accelerative demand trends for its core product suite, but medium-term competitive concerns and increasing keep us cautious here for reasons…

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October 22, 2025

Tesla Q3 Earnings Review – Results Will “Shine” and Musk will be Heavy on the Optimism Ahead of Nov 1st Shareholder Vote (he will likely avoid discussing 4Q25E/2026E)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Consensus Estimates Appear Too Low Ahead of Tesla’s Q3 Print (after the close today). Consensus appears too conservative heading into Tesla’s Q3 release. As shown in Ex. 1, we’ve revised our 3Q25E automotive revenue higher,…

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October 21, 2025

Cleveland Cliffs’ Q3 Results Disappoint Despite 2025 “Goldilocks” Market for US Steel Prices; w/ US Prices Now Falling, Yesterday’s Share Price Surge (Likely) Provides a Great Entry Point for Short Sellers (not yet involved)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Cleveland Cliffs: Another Chapter in the Fairy Tale. Cleveland Cliffs just posted its fifth consecutive quarter of negative gross margins – this, despite President Trump’s trade war artificially inflating U.S. steel prices since 1Q25. Yesterday,…

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October 16, 2025

Argan (AGX, HOLD) – CEO 1×1 takeaways on staffing, project landscape

By Austin Wang

We caught up with Argan CEO David Watson earlier this week. The focus remains firmly on Argan’s Gemma Power Systems, along with Fluor (FLR, not rated) one of the few leading CCGT E&Cs available for…

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