Company Notes


March 7, 2024

While the Street’s 2024E Adj.-EPS Estimate for Jinko Solar has “Collapsed” from $9.76/shr Three Months Ago to $5.98/shr Currently, is it Enough?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… is Jinko Solar Still a Good Short, or Has that Train Left the Station? In the analysis that follows, we update our views on global solar wafer/cell/module bellwether Jinko Solar, to include: (a) our…

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February 29, 2024

If We Told You Sunrun’s Recent Convertible Bond Cost ~15.4% (or 8.14% for the Debt Portion Alone), Funds Which it is Investing into “Assets” that Generate ~3.7% Returns… Would that Make it More Compelling as a Short?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Cost of Sunrun’s Recent $475mn Convertible Bond Issue May Surprise You (link). As a reminder to those who don’t have a doctorate in “bond math”, when an investor buys a convertible bond they are…

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February 7, 2024

Despite Strength in Solar Stocks Today, Do Enphase’s 4Q23 Results & 1Q24E Guidance Actually Foretell a Coming “Nuclear Winter” for Solar Stocks (i.e., are they still grossly overvalued)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Solar Stocks are Roaring Higher Today, Despite Enphase’s 4Q24 Revs. Missing a Q4 Street Est. that Had Been Cut -51.9% Over the Past 6 Months (yes, you heard that right); Does this Make (Any) Sense?…

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February 6, 2024

US HRC Steel Prices Appear Set to Have a “Humpty Alexander Dumpty”-Like Fall… Which is Not Priced Into CLF’s Shares; PT to $11.41/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Looking Past Last Year’s Delayed Recession, the Real Thing Appears Set to Take Hold in 2024. While steel industry CEO’s have maintained a positive bias thru 4Q23 earnings reporting season, contrary to the belief of…

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February 1, 2024

Are Residential Solar Companies Targeting “Low-Income”/Poor Folks w/ Predatory Loans, Actually Increasing the Financial Burden on America’s Most Vulnerable?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Have Constructed a Model Based on a 7.5kW and 3.5kW Residential Rooftop Solar Home System Financed via a Loan in Greenwich, CT, Using NREL’s PVWatts Calculator; Our Findings were Rather Surprising Given the US…

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January 25, 2024

Tesla’s Q4 Results/2024E Guidance Show it’s Nothing More than a Struggling Car Company (not a high-growth tech co.) & Elon Musk is the World’s (most successful) “Sleazy” Used-Car Salesman

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So What Happened, and Why are we Calling the World’s Richest Man a “Sleazy” Used Car Salesman? In this note, we provide what we see as the eight key takeaways from TSLA’s just-reported 4Q23 results,…

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January 23, 2024

Tesla Q4 Earnings Preview: In the Words of B.B. King… “The Thrill is Gone”… for EV Cars That Is; PT to $23.53

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, What’s Up Next for Tesla and Electric Vehicle “Jesus” Elon Musk? With a cult-like following among retail investors (see here), exacerbated by the fact that the arguably most-followed sell-side analyst on TSLA came out…

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January 17, 2024

What do Last Night’s Tesla European Price Cuts Mean to the “Bottom Line”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… are Last Night’s Tesla Car Price Cuts a Big Deal? In this note, ahead of a full update to our bottom-up TSLA earnings driver model due out later this week, we use a back-of-the-envelope…

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January 16, 2024

Is the Sun Setting on SunPower… or Has it Already Set (And the Masses Just Don’t Know it Yet)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In this Note, in Addition to Updating our Extensive Bottom-Up SunPower Earnings Driver Model, We Update our Outlook on the Company. In the analysis that follows, following: (1) the Dec. 22nd, 2023 decision by Atlas…

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January 12, 2024

Midnight Valantine’s Day “China-Price-Cut” Massacre Spells Trouble for Tesla’s (Already) Sputtering Margins

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Tesla, with its Recent Model 3 “Highland” Refresh, which Pundits Predicted Would Reinvigorate Demand in China (link), Just Slash its China Car Prices Just 12 Days into 1Q24? In short, the answer, resoundingly, is…

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January 3, 2024

The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly on Tesla’s Record 4Q23 Deliveries (GLJ’s Quick Take)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So… Tesla’s Q4 Delivery Number Came in a Bit Ahead of our Est. (and mostly in line with Consensus); what’s our Quick Take? Yesterday, ahead of the market open, TSLA reported 4Q23 deliveries of 484.507K…

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December 19, 2023

Has the Cost of Capital for RUN/NOVA/SPWR Actually Come Down as Goldman/Piper Sandler Claimed in their Recent Upgrades, or Did they Ignore the Recent “Blowout” in Solar ABS Spreads in Their “Analysis”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Sell-Side Right in Their Recent Claims that the Cost-of-Capital for the Solar Residential Rooftop “Mortgage Companies” (i.e., RUN/NOVA/SPWR/etc.) Has Dropped Given US Treasury Yields are Down, or Does Their Analysis Ignore the Recent…

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December 8, 2023

Adjusting Our Bottom-Up Jinko Solar Model for the Recent Global Solar Module Price “Crash”, we Look to Address How Much Incremental Earnings Downside the Company Has?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How’d Jinko Solar Fare in 3Q23? In 3Q23, JKS reported rev/GM%/non-GAAP EPS of $4.4bn/19.3%/$2.55 (Street $4.2bn/14.95%/$1.18). And, on those results 10/30/23, we’ll remind our readers that JKS’ share price surged +10.3% (while the lion’s share…

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December 5, 2023

Is the Recent Surge in US HRC Spot Prices the Biggest “Head Fake” Since, Well, This Time Last Yr (Setting US Steel Stocks up for a Big Early ’24 Fall), or is it the “Real Deal”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Spread Between US HRC Spot Prices and Foreign HRC Spot Prices Has Exploded Higher Recently; is it Justified? As detailed below (Ex. 1), since 10/13/23, US HRC spot prices have surged +$335/s. ton, vs….

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December 1, 2023

Is Wall Street Being Too Generous Modeling SolarEdge’s 2024E-25E Ests., Meaning, Similar to the 3Q23 Earnings “Debacle”, Sharp Forward Earnings Revisions Lower Are Fated?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Houston, We Have a Problem. As a reminder, when SEDG reported 3Q23 results a few weeks back, despite negatively preannouncing days prior (due to order delays/cancellations as customers double/triple ordered in 2022, primarily in Europe),…

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