April 17, 2025
Is Consensus Making a Grave Error in its Estimate for Tesla’s 2Q25E Global Auto Sales? The best investing opportunities arise when there are material dislocations between what Consensus expects vs. what is most likely to…
April 2, 2025
At the Margin, a Company’s Actual Results vs. Wall Street’s Estimates Determine the Path of the Stock Price. In this note, following recent on-the-ground U.S. solar residential market checks, we seek to answer if the…
March 31, 2025
GLJ Tesla 1Q25E and 2025E Delivery and Production Estimate Update. While we have, previously, generalized TSLA’s 1Q25E deliveries at 360K-370K, in what follows we provide the thought process around the evolution of our TESLA 1Q25E/2025E…
March 12, 2025
Cameco Recently Reported Better Than Expected 4Q24A Results. A few weeks back, Cameco reported adjusted 4Q24 EPS of $0.36, besting Consensus’ $0.33. More important, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of C$524mn (+70% QoQ and +56%…
February 27, 2025
Cleveland Cliffs Reports 4Q24 Results that (Largely) Disappoint. This week, CLF reported 4Q24 rev/non-GAAP EPS of $4.3bn/-$0.68 vs. Cons’ $4.3bn/-$0.69 ests. (GLJe $4.4bn/-$0.53). The company also posted lackluster free-cash-flow (“FCF”) of -$677mn, missing the Street’s…
February 12, 2025
Tesla’s Week 6 China Sales Update Yesterday = No Bueno; U.S./European Sales Show (very) Troubling Signs; and June Unsupervised Robotaxi Rollout Appears Set to Severely Disappoint. In this note, we update TSLA’s global sales trend…
February 4, 2025
Enphase is Set to Report 4Q24E Earnings After the Close Today. In this note, after checks done, primarily in Europe this week, we have updated our bottoms-up earnings driver model for Module-Level-Performance-Electronics (“MLPE”) bellwether Enphase….
January 28, 2025
Will Earnings be a Positive Catalyst (Similar to 3Q24) or a Negative Catalyst (Similar to 2Q24)? Due to: (a) a record mix of negative-gross-margin Chinese car sales in Q4 (i.e., 39.7% vs. 39.6% in Q3,…
January 23, 2025
Is Jinko Solar Still a Good Short Following its -33.9% Trailing-Twelve-Month Fall (vs. the S&P 500 Rising +25.1% Over the Same Timeframe)? Interestingly, we remind our readers that JKS is guiding its U.S. shipment mix…
January 16, 2025
Does Canadian Solar Still Represent a “Solid Short Play” Following its Collapse Over the Past 2yrs? In this note, we analyze: (1) the capacity for China’s top 9 solar cell makers in 2025E vs. 2025E…
January 7, 2025
Is there a “Trump Put” Play for U.S. Steel Stocks in the Offing? While we believe (strongly) the U.S. economy is in much worse shape than many pundits acknowledge (detailed below), with Trump set to…
January 3, 2025
Tesla Has Stated They Have a Daily View into Real-Time Demand, Unlike Most Other OEMs with Dealerships. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, TSLA has boasted, previously, that because they get real-time data, on a…
December 27, 2024
We Visited a Large Tesla Dealership in Charlotte, NC Yesterday. With weekly auto insurance data available for the Chinese auto market, and daily/monthly insurance registration data available in Europe, the key unknown each quarter as…
December 17, 2024
Today, Goldman Sachs Double Upgraded SolarEdge from SELL to BUY. Goldman Sachs double upgraded SEDG from SELL to BUY with a $19/shr 12-month forward price objective, which compares to our year-end 2025E price target of…
December 17, 2024
Tesla’s Stock has Been on a Tear; is this Indicative of Better Fundamentals, or Simply Options Market Activity/Manipulation? Since 10/23/24, or when TSLA reported slightly better-than-expected 3Q24 results, the stock has surged +116.7% higher; this…