January 17, 2024
So… are Last Night’s Tesla Car Price Cuts a Big Deal? In this note, ahead of a full update to our bottom-up TSLA earnings driver model due out later this week, we use a back-of-the-envelope…
January 16, 2024
In this Note, in Addition to Updating our Extensive Bottom-Up SunPower Earnings Driver Model, We Update our Outlook on the Company. In the analysis that follows, following: (1) the Dec. 22nd, 2023 decision by Atlas…
January 12, 2024
Did Tesla, with its Recent Model 3 “Highland” Refresh, which Pundits Predicted Would Reinvigorate Demand in China (link), Just Slash its China Car Prices Just 12 Days into 1Q24? In short, the answer, resoundingly, is…
January 3, 2024
So… Tesla’s Q4 Delivery Number Came in a Bit Ahead of our Est. (and mostly in line with Consensus); what’s our Quick Take? Yesterday, ahead of the market open, TSLA reported 4Q23 deliveries of 484.507K…
December 19, 2023
Is the Sell-Side Right in Their Recent Claims that the Cost-of-Capital for the Solar Residential Rooftop “Mortgage Companies” (i.e., RUN/NOVA/SPWR/etc.) Has Dropped Given US Treasury Yields are Down, or Does Their Analysis Ignore the Recent…
December 8, 2023
How’d Jinko Solar Fare in 3Q23? In 3Q23, JKS reported rev/GM%/non-GAAP EPS of $4.4bn/19.3%/$2.55 (Street $4.2bn/14.95%/$1.18). And, on those results 10/30/23, we’ll remind our readers that JKS’ share price surged +10.3% (while the lion’s share…
December 5, 2023
The Spread Between US HRC Spot Prices and Foreign HRC Spot Prices Has Exploded Higher Recently; is it Justified? As detailed below (Ex. 1), since 10/13/23, US HRC spot prices have surged +$335/s. ton, vs….
December 1, 2023
Houston, We Have a Problem. As a reminder, when SEDG reported 3Q23 results a few weeks back, despite negatively preannouncing days prior (due to order delays/cancellations as customers double/triple ordered in 2022, primarily in Europe),…
November 8, 2023
What’s Up? In this note, following, what we see as incremental discussions we held this week with: (a) the leading distributor of solar parts in the U.S., as well as (b) the world’s leading multi-platform…
November 2, 2023
So, How did Sunrun Fare in Q3? In this note, we provide our quick thoughts on Sunrun’s 3Q23 results reported last night, where the company: (a) saw -$804.7mn in free-cash-flow burn, despite cutting its staff…
November 2, 2023
SolarEdge Falls as it Guides to 4Q23E non-GAAP (which is BS as stock comp counts) Operating Income Loss of -$106.9mn (vs. Street’s $11.3mn GAAP Est.). As of the writing of this note (i.e., 3:17am EST),…
October 19, 2023
So How Did Tesla’s 3Q23 Results Come in vs. the Street’s Drastically Reduced Estimates? Last night, TSLA reported auto revs/auto-gross-margins (excl. credits) of $19.6bn/16.3%, missing Cons.’ $20.9bn/18.02% ests. by -6.44% and -172bps, respectively (we focus…
October 17, 2023
What’s Up? In this note, we provide updates on: (a) our bottoms-up earnings driver model for TSLA, to include our updated 3Q23E, 2023E, 2024E, and 2025E earnings estimates, (b) wait times for new TSLA orders…
October 4, 2023
What’s the Latest on the US Inverter Market? Last night, after waiting for weeks for a response, one of our oldest US solar inverter contacts (we’ve been in touch with this individual since 2008), who…
October 2, 2023
Tesla Reports Q3 Production/Deliveries of 430.488K/435.059K, Missing the Cons’ est. of 461.992K/456.722K by a Mile. In this note, we discuss our views on TSLA’s just-reported 3Q23 production/delivery ests., which we previewed 9/18/23 when we said…