Company Notes


October 22, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL) – 3Q25 Review: Rubin beat-and-raise quarter meet peak market noise

By Austin Wang

Management posted a positive update we believe met elevated buyside expectations. Vertiv continues to realize accelerative demand trends for its core product suite, but medium-term competitive concerns and increasing keep us cautious here for reasons…

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October 22, 2025

Tesla Q3 Earnings Review – Results Will “Shine” and Musk will be Heavy on the Optimism Ahead of Nov 1st Shareholder Vote (he will likely avoid discussing 4Q25E/2026E)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Consensus Estimates Appear Too Low Ahead of Tesla’s Q3 Print (after the close today). Consensus appears too conservative heading into Tesla’s Q3 release. As shown in Ex. 1, we’ve revised our 3Q25E automotive revenue higher,…

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October 21, 2025

Cleveland Cliffs’ Q3 Results Disappoint Despite 2025 “Goldilocks” Market for US Steel Prices; w/ US Prices Now Falling, Yesterday’s Share Price Surge (Likely) Provides a Great Entry Point for Short Sellers (not yet involved)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Cleveland Cliffs: Another Chapter in the Fairy Tale. Cleveland Cliffs just posted its fifth consecutive quarter of negative gross margins – this, despite President Trump’s trade war artificially inflating U.S. steel prices since 1Q25. Yesterday,…

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October 16, 2025

Argan (AGX, HOLD) – CEO 1×1 takeaways on staffing, project landscape

By Austin Wang

We caught up with Argan CEO David Watson earlier this week. The focus remains firmly on Argan’s Gemma Power Systems, along with Fluor (FLR, not rated) one of the few leading CCGT E&Cs available for…

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October 14, 2025

GE Vernova (GEV, BUY): 3Q25 Preview – Delayed sticker shock – Are investors napping on ’24 CCGT pricing reveal? PT to $758

By Austin Wang

We expect 3Q25 to be a positive event for shares as GEV surprises investors with a robust bookings pathway driven by CCGT SRA conversion and Saudi condensers hitting equipment RPOs for Power & Electrification. Expect…

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October 13, 2025

Canadian Solar: Is Wall Street Sleeping Walking Past what will Likely Prove to be an “Unfortunate” Q3?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Q3 Preview – More Trick than Treat. Once again, the market seems content to sleepwalk – this time straight into what looks like an unfortunate Q3 for CSIQ. For those who actually read 10-Ks and…

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October 10, 2025

Primoris (PRIM, BUY): New CEO underscores push into growth end-markets

By Austin Wang

We are hopeful about the appointment of a tenured Jacobs executive with strong experience across Primoris’ most critical growth markets. Reiterate BUY. Traditionally, Primoris has drawn senior and divisional leadership from a cadre of ex-CB&I…

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October 3, 2025

As Expected, Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Beat Consensus; US Sales Jump +29% YoY; But, the “Hangover” from the Party Appears to Just be Getting Started

By Gordon L. Johnson II

End of Tax Credit Pushes Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries to Record High. Everyone knew the U.S. would be strong due to demand pull-forward, but just how strong was the question. Yesterday, we got the answer. TSLA…

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October 1, 2025

Primoris (PRIM, BUY): 3Q25 Preview – Gas-fired upside amidst Matador caution, PT to $168

By Austin Wang

Management continues to emphasize a strong ’26 opportunity-set for continued utility-scale solar gains, but we believe investors expect potential gas generation commentary to drive a possible +HSD % move from these levels. Tweaking our Gas…

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September 29, 2025

China’s PV Installations Fell -55% YoY in Aug., after Falling -45%/-40% in Jul./Jun.; this Collapse Foretells Big Problems Ahead for Canadian Solar and Jinko Solar

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Well, That’s Not Good for Canadian Solar and Jinko Solar. China’s August 2025 solar PV installations (Ex. 1) were cut in half versus last year, coming in at just 7.6GWac. Importantly, if this pace continues,…

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September 28, 2025

Vertiv (VRT, SELL) – Is this Moat Micro-Soft? Reiterate SELL

By Austin Wang

We view Microsoft’s announcement of a new in-house thermal management system as a catalyst on an increasingly negative event path for Vertiv. While our competitors have been quick to point out the Microsoft solutions most…

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September 23, 2025

Those Assuming Third-Party-Ownership (“TPO”) Solar Installs Grow in 2026E May be in for a “Rude Awakening”; PT Edges Higher to $23.49/shr from $19.80/shr Prior; SELL

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Final Word. Bears have been reluctant to press ahead of both: (1) potential demand pull-forward in Q3 and Q4 as the 25D credit phaseout approaches, as well as (2) calls that TPO solar installations will…

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September 22, 2025

Initiate Argan (AGX) at HOLD: Staffing “Show-me” Story Limits Further Revisions

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage of Argan at HOLD with a PT of $251 (~3% downside) as investor expectations have run ahead of management’s ability to scale into what we agree is an generational demand for generation…

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September 22, 2025

Initiate Primoris (PRIM) at BUY: The Generation E&C – Incremental Crews Win in Gas & Solar

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage of Primoris Services at BUY with a PT of $160 to highlight a shift in the utility capex cycle towards generation, and emphasize how PRIM’s strong market position and unique staffing capabilities…

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September 17, 2025

Wall Street’s Q3 Delivery Estimates Remain Irresponsibly Low; but if you’re a TSLA Bull, Q3 Earnings are Shaping up to be Scary, with Q4 Looking Downright “Terrifying”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Consensus hasn’t bothered to update its 3Q25E Tesla delivery estimate since early July – which tells you all you need to know about the rigor of Wall Street coverage here. We believe the Street’s Q3…

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