Industry Notes


March 26, 2025

GLJ Macro Weekly – With April Tax Payments Set to Imminently Commence Combined w/ a Lack of Share Buybacks as we Enter the Blackout Period (3rd Week of Mar.-to-Last Week of April) is a N-Term U.S. Liquidity Squeeze Going to Put a Damper on the Recent Stock Market Rally?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Recent U.S. Stock Market Rally on its “Last Leg”? With U.S. tax season nearing, meaning a material amount of liquidity is set to exit the U.S. market, combined with the share buyback blackout…

Read More >>

March 24, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – Jan. California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Paint “Grim” Picture for 2025E U.S. Solar Demand + Update on Jan. + Feb. 2025 China Installs and 2024 Australian Solar Installs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Data out of California Last Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 1Q25E Earnings Season for the MLPE U.S. Inverter Bellwethers (i.e., SEDG + ENPH). In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from: (a) the California Solar Initiative…

Read More >>

March 5, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for 4Q24 & Dec. ’24 Paints a Grim Portrait of SolarEdge/Enphase/Storage-Demand

By Gordon L. Johnson II

California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Sheds Light on State of Affairs for Module Level Performance Electronic (“MLPE”) Bellwethers Enphase and SolarEdge. In this note, we provide the key takeaways from December’s CSI data dump, and…

Read More >>

February 18, 2025

GLJ Solar Weekly – What Do Our China Contacts Think of the CCP’s Shift to Compensating Renewable Energy Via Market-Determined Rates vs. its Current Fixed Mechanism?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

China Plans Mid-Year Change to the Way it Compensates Renewable Energy. Beginning June 1st, China plans to end its fixed pricing mechanism for renewable energy and require electricity generated from such sources to be sold…

Read More >>

February 12, 2025

GLJ Macro Weekly – Despite all of His Rhetoric to the Contrary, is New U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Really Just “Janet Yellen 2.0” & Did Powell Just Pivot to a Hawkish Stance to “Counter” Him?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent About to Unleash the U.S. Liquidity Kraken? In general, U.S. liquidity defined as: Δ in Fed Bal. Sheet – Δ in Treasury General Account (“TGA”) – Δ in Reverse…

Read More >>

January 14, 2025

Does the Path for US Treasury Rates (as well as the Pending Trump Administration) Suggest Solar Stocks Could See an Incremental -80.2% Downside (yes, you heard that right)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is It True that if One Can Accurately Predict the Path of US Treasury Yields, One Can Also, With Great Veracity, Predict What US Solar Stocks Will Do? As outlined in Ex. 1 below, since…

Read More >>

January 12, 2025

GLJ Macro Weekly – Does the Drain of the Overnight Reverse Repo (“RRP”) Facility – Combined w/ Treasury Secretary Elect S. Bessent’s Hawkish Stance on T-Bills – Point to Problems Ahead for U.S. Equities in 1H25E?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

“It’s Liquidity that Moves Markets” – Stanley Druckenmiller. In this note, we look to address the n-term outlook for U.S. equities when considering: (a) the Overnight Reverse Repo (“RRP”) facility, or money created during the…

Read More >>

December 23, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Nov. California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” + Updated OTR SEDG/TSLA/ENPH Survey Data + Nov. European PPA Volumes = “Coal” in SolarEdge’s/Enphase’s 4Q24E Earnings Christmas Stockings?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Data out of California Last Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 4Q24E Earnings Season for the MLPE U.S. Inverter Bellwethers (i.e., SEDG + ENPH). In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from: (a) the California…

Read More >>

December 12, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for Oct. ’24 Provides Insights Into U.S. Solar Market & SolarEdge/Enphase

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Data out of California This Week Provides Bird’s Eye View into 4Q24E Earnings Season for the MLPE US Inverter Suppliers. In what follows, we detail the key takeaways from the California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Oct….

Read More >>

November 26, 2024

Our Market-Cap Weighted “Resi Solar Index” is up +34.2% from the Post-Trump-Election-Win Lows; is this Sustainable/Justified?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Resi Solar Stocks have Staged a Magnificent Rally Off the Lows. Using our “Resi Solar Index”, which is simply the sum of the market caps for SEDG + ENPH + NOVA + RUN, we…

Read More >>

November 5, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” for 3Q24 & Sep. ’24 Provide Insights Into U.S. Solar Market and SolarEdge/Enphase

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Update from California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) – Pulse on US Solar Market Thru Sep. 2024 (3Q24 Solar Market Sales in California Down -43.5% YoY & -0.6% QoQ, with Sep. 2024 Sales Down -32.8% & -7.4% YoY…

Read More >>

November 4, 2024

How Have Solar Stocks Performed 1-Month, 3-Months, and 6-Months Out After the Past 4 U.S. Presidential Elections?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How Have Solar Stocks Performed, Post Election, Since Obama was First Elected (i.e., Nov. 5th, 2008)? In this note we look at how the Invesco Solar TAN ETF Index has performed over the last four…

Read More >>

October 30, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – (1) Fireside Chat w/ Largest US Distributor Provides Insights into How US Demand is Trending + (2) Chat w/ Large Chinese Hedge Fund Sheds Light on Bruited Domestic Chinese Solar Output Caps + (3) Update on China Installs Through Sep. 2024

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, all solar substrates in China were…

Read More >>

October 2, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – August 2024 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” – Is Tesla Taking Storage Share Away from Enphase?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate, segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China were not…

Read More >>

September 30, 2024

Has the Decision by China’s State Grid Company to Cut the Avg. Price it Pays for Solar Power to ~0.15 Yuan/kWh, from ~0.39 Yuan/kWh in 2023, Put Global Solar Demand at Risk? What’s up w/ U.S./Europe Solar Demand?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

On Sep. 23rd, China’s National Energy Administration (“NEA”) Released Data on Chinese Solar Installs Through Aug. 2024. In what follows, we provide an update on the state of the world’s most important solar market, China….

Read More >>