Industry Notes


October 13, 2026

Residential Solar Update – Krannich, Round Three Fireside Chat: The “So-Called Recovery” Is Localized, Safe Harbor Fell Short, & String Inverters Are Back; What It Means Into 3Q26 Prints and 4Q26 Guides

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In March, the Chief Sales Officer of one of America’s largest solar distributors told us things would pick up. In June, he said the coming months should help. In what follows, we detail what he’s…

Read More >>

October 13, 2026

GLJ Macro Weekly – A Single Point of Failure

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Businesses are spending on AI like it’s 1999. Households are answering surveys like it’s 2008. We are not calling a recession. We are calling concentration, and concentration has a way of becoming the story later….

Read More >>

October 7, 2026

Solar Weekly – The Tariff Is a Price Floor; the Demand Is Still a Question; & the First Solar “Mystery”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

China’s polysilicon cuts are talk until they show up in the meeting minutes. First Solar is at 10.9x trailing earnings and the sell-side cannot agree on why. Key Takeaways Nothing new in price, which is…

Read More >>

October 7, 2026

Behind the Meter: Q3-2026 Earnings Sneak Peek; Data Center Delays – The Pipeline Is Leaking. The Guidance Isn’t. Yet.

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Mapping twelve weeks of project slippage (mid-July to October 6) onto GEV, VRT, MOD, TLN and peers, and asking whether any of it reaches 2026 guidance Set-Up. Since the Q2-2026 reports, the news on data…

Read More >>

October 1, 2026

Behind the Meter: Musings from this Week’s Yotta Conference in Las Vegas

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We spent two days at Caesars Forum with roughly 6,000 people who build, finance, power, and cool AI data centers. We went in with four worries: politics, the grid, the AI safety debate, and speculation…

Read More >>

September 30, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 9/30/2026: Upstream and Midstream Prices Hold Steady, Poly-Si Spot Prices Fall, while European Module Prices Weaken

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$36,685/ton = $5.23/kg) – down -1.36% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 9/30/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

Read More >>

September 30, 2026

California Solar Initiative – Jun–Aug 2026 Data: June Snapped Back, August Didn’t. The Total Market Is Up 6.6% YTD; Residential Just Printed Its Weakest Month Since 2020

By Gordon L. Johnson II

KEY TAKEAWAYS The California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) posted June, July and August in one update this week, so we get to grade our own homework three times over. In July we said June would decide…

Read More >>

September 25, 2026

GLJ Macro Weekly: The Forward Is the Floor – At 5.41%, the Bond Market Has Priced Out the Bernanke Era of “Easy Money”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Treasury 5y5y forward hit 5.41% on September 25, its highest level since April 2010 and within a basis point of its 2007 high. After taking out 2.33% of expected inflation, that is a real…

Read More >>

September 25, 2026

Metals & Mining Weekly: US HRC Knocking on $1,300-Door, While China Steel Demand Stays Stuck (Bad if You’re an Iron Ore Bull)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mixed vs. Previous Close: Yesterday, copper +0.28% to $6.69/lb; aluminum +0.07% to $1.64/lb; nickel -0.65% to $8.57/lb; zinc +0.32% to $1.80/lb; lead -0.57% to $1.10/lb; gold -0.29% to $4,275/oz; silver -0.98% to…

Read More >>

September 24, 2026

AI Complex Round Up Daily: Oracle/Project Jupiter – Not a Cancellation, Not “Just a Delay”; the Read-Across Is Bearish for Turbines and Chips

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Semantics matter here. Bloomberg reported this morning that Oracle (ORCL) served Blue Owl (OWL), developer of Project Jupiter in Doña Ana County, NM, with a force majeure notice designed to defer lease payments should the…

Read More >>

September 23, 2026

AI Complex Round Up Daily: Plenty of Chips, “Short on Checks”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The buildout is still physically tight. The money behind it is not. After three months of dead money, the signal has moved from the order book to the capital stack. What happened. SB Energy, SoftBank’s…

Read More >>

September 23, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 9/23/2026: Muted Transactions Anchor Solar Price Stability – Polysilicon Prices Held Steady this Week as Market Participants Adopted a Cautious Stance

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$37,090/ton = $5.30/kg) – up 0.69% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 9/23/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

Read More >>

September 23, 2026

Behind the Meter: AI Data Centers – Texas and Loudoun County, VA Hit Pause. Do “the Slots” Follow?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Two of the largest U.S. data center markets now have the brakes on at the same time. The market is reading it as a zoning story. Could it become an equipment story? What happened. Texas…

Read More >>

September 17, 2026

Behind the Meter: Musings from Morgan Stanley’s 14th Annual Laguna Conference – Siemens Sold Out Through 2031, and the Seller is the Most Careful Person in the Room

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Siemens Energy at Laguna: delivery slots, capacity discipline, the service tail nobody was asking about, and why a rocket company wants to make turbine vanes. Notes from the session, which GLJ was privileged to join…

Read More >>

September 16, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 9/16/2026: Extent of Polysilicon Production Cuts Remains Uncertain; Quotes Hold Steady Amid Limited Transactions; Poly-Si Spot Prices Fall

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$36,835/ton = $5.27/kg) – down 2.07% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 9/16/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

Read More >>