– Industry Notes

July 12, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – U.S. Module Prices Collapsed this Week; &, Are the 2H24E Solar Bulls Missing a “Big Trouble in Little Europe” Set-Up Into Q2 Earnings?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

July 3, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – April ’24 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” + Update on European Solar Markets (i.e., Germany + Italy + U.K. + Spain + Netherlands + France)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 23-24), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

May 31, 2024

What Do Our Checks Suggest Around: (a) the Idea Solar Demand Will Benefit from a Surge in “AI” Powered Demand, (b) the Idea that China’s Xi Jinping will Force Chinese Solar Capacity Offline, & (c) the Idea that Section 45X Solar Production Tax Credits (“PTCs”) are Safe in a Trump Administration?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Solar Stocks have Staged a Sharp Rally Over the Past Several Weeks… Mainly… on: (1) Two Wall Street-Manufactured Hype Stories, as well as (2) an Assumption, Mainly by FSLR Bulls, that the Production Tax Credits…

May 30, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Despite Recent Calls that “AI” Will Drive Sig. Solar Demand, Looking at the Mar. ’24 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump”, Solar Demand in the Real World Continues to Be Lackluster

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex.16-17), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…

April 30, 2024

GLJ Macro Weekly: We Were Surprised by How “Hawkish” J. Yellen’s Funding/Needs Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”) was, Yesterday, into the Nov. Election, but The Devil is in the (yet to be released) Details

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Yesterday, at 3:00pm EST., the US Treasury Released its Estimates for its Borrowing Needs in 2Q24E and 3Q24E. As seen here (link), yesterday at 3:00pm EST, the US Treasury provided its funding/needs forecasts around: (a)…

April 26, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Feb. ’24 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” + Our Recent Fireside Chat w/ the Largest Solar Distributor in the US = Spell Big(ger) Problems for the MLPE Inverter Vendors?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex.13-14), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…

April 11, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Jan. ’24 California Solar Initiative “Data Dump” Suggest Things are About to go from Bad to Worse for SEDG/ENPH? And, Update on German/U.K./Italian Solar Installs YTD

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

March 4, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does our Recent Fire Side Chat w/ the Largest Distributors of Solar Products in N. America & Our One-on-One Conversation w/ a Large On-the-Ground Chinese Solar Investor Suggest “Light at the End of the Tunnel” for Solar Bulls?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

February 20, 2024

GLJ Macro Weekly: Is the Fed “Sleepwalking” us into a 10x Worse Recession in 2024 by Using the Wrong Neutral Rate & Ignoring UST Yields (which the bond market takes its cues from) in Favor of its Fed Funds Rate (which few use to price debt – i.e., banks pay 5bps for deposits)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Fed Using the Wrong Neutral Rate, Suggesting they are Sleepwalking the US Economy into a Much “Nastier” Recession than if they Weren’t Constantly Pushing Imminent Rate Cuts as a Certainty? Based on the…

February 8, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Dec. California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Nov.) Shows Weak US Solar Demand May be Structural; & Update on German/U.K. Solar Installations

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

January 25, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat w/ Leading U.S. Solar Parts Distribution Company and Large Chinese Solar Market Investor Provides Insights into SolarEdge’s/Enphase’s & Solar Industry’s 2024E Outlook

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 2-3), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

January 19, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – November ’23 Census Bureau Data Dump Shows Stubbornly High Solar Module Imports into the US, Implying Demand Bottlenecks in Europe & China in Q4

By Gordon L. Johnson II

January 10, 2024

GLJ Macro Weekly – Was a Massive “Bull Trap” Set Following Janet Yellen’s Oct. 31st QRA “Shocker”, and is a 1Q24 Rug Pull Likely When Observing the Data?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Huh? Did you Say the 4Q23 Market Surge was a “Bull Trap“? First off, we note that J. Yellen’s Oct. 31st Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”) shocked market participants by focusing the US government’s 4Q23/1Q24 funding…

January 4, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Nov. California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Nov.) Shows Collapsing US Solar Installs, Yet Provides Continued “Glimmer of Light” for PV Battery Space, & Update on 2023 European Solar Installs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

December 28, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – What if the Same “Catalyst” that Sparked the Record 4Q23 Stock Market Surge is Set to Force the Fed’s Hand on Resetting Rate Cut Expectations (Meaning a Sell-Off is Near)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Janet Yellen Intentionally Squeeze the Long-Duration Bond Shorts with her 10/31/23 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”), and is it About to Make the Fed’s Job a Lot Harder? By way of background, we remind our…