Industry Notes


May 15, 2026

GLJ Global Macro Strategy | Made in Japan: The Inflation Catalyst Wall Street Just Misread

By Gordon L. Johnson II

A three-sigma PPI shock out of Tokyo — not Trump/Xi tensions — drove today’s global rates repricing. With peer central banks pricing two-to-three additional hikes into year-end and the Fed strip still at one, the…

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May 15, 2026

Metals & Mining Weekly: LME Weaker, Steel Strengthens, Q1’26 Earnings Calls Flash Consumer Warning Signs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Lower vs. Previous Close: Today, Copper -1.56% to $6.30/lb; aluminum -1.08% to $1.63/lb; nickel -1.23% to $9.63/lb; zinc -0.37% to $1.65/lb; lead +0.19% to $1.11/lb; gold -1.38% to $4,588/oz; silver -4.01%…

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May 13, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 5/13/2026

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Please see bottom of report for important disclosures Gordon L. Johnson/GLJ Research LLC ————————————————– Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$37,190/ton = $5.25/kg) – down 4.8% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT….

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May 12, 2026

GLJ Global Macro Strategy | The $318B T-Bill Drain Ahead — Why the Liquidity Tailwind That Sent Stocks Soaring Is About to Reverse

By Gordon L. Johnson II

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In roughly two decades on the sell-side, we have learned that the most reliable bearish setups are the ones that hide in plain sight in the plumbing of the financial system rather than…

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May 6, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 5/6/2026

By Austin Wang

Please see bottom of report for important disclosures Gordon L. Johnson/GLJ Research LLC ————————————————– Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$39,080/ton = $5.50/kg) – up 1.3% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT….

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April 29, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 4/29/2026

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$38,585/ton = $5.42/kg) – down 14.8% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT. Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 4/29/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw…

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April 28, 2026

GLJ Macro Follow-Up — Spotify (“SPOT”) Confirms GLJ’s Equity Derivatives Volatility Strategy Thesis in Real Time

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Vol Crush Mechanics Played Out on a Clean Beat — 24 Hours Before the Mag-7 Catalyst Window Opens Spotify (SPOT; NC) reported Q1 results pre-market today and beat consensus on EPS ($3.45 vs. $2.99 est.)…

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April 26, 2026

GLJ Macro Weekly – U.S. Equity Derivatives Volatility Strategy: Implied Volatility at Cycle Highs Across Mag-7; Structural Unwind Risk Elevated

By Gordon L. Johnson II

1-Week 100% moneyness implied vol has surged to 12-month extremes in AMZN, META, MSFT, and GOOG ahead of Wednesday night earnings; AAPL follows Thursday. History is unambiguous — vol of this magnitude collapses post-catalyst, and…

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April 23, 2026

Mar. 2026 Chinese Solar Installs Collapse 56% YoY; Recent Polysilicon Futures Price Rip = Head Fake — Reiterate SELL on JKS, CSIQ, DQ

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line China’s National Energy Administration (“NEA”) this morning released Q1 2026 solar PV installation data confirming what we have warned about for the past two quarters: the post-“531” pricing-reform air pocket is here, and…

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April 20, 2026

Leverage to Scale: Initiating coverage on Data Center Fabrication E&Cs FIX, LGN, & ECG

By Austin Wang

We initiate coverage on FIX (BUY), LGN (BUY), and ECG (HOLD) at a time of pivotal change as data center proliferation promps longtime installation and construction companies to retool towards becoming contract manufacturers. Customer concentration…

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April 16, 2026

US Petroleum Inventory Alert: The U.S. “Energy Independence” Narrative Is Misleading — Crude Drawdown Risk Is Real and Imminent; Higher Energy Prices Will Drive Rates Higher, Threatening Rate-Sensitive Solar Stocks

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Investment Conclusion The US is Not “Energy Independent”. The widely-promoted narrative that the United States is energy-independent and capable of replacing Persian Gulf crude flows is analytically incorrect and, in our view, is creating dangerous…

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April 15, 2026

ShovelCheck: If the Section 232 tree falls in a customer-concentrated forest…

By Austin Wang

Updated Section 232 tariffs are guidance pulls for companies in other sectors, driving inbounds around price action in our space. We reached out to data center OEMs and EPCs across and outside our universe today;…

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April 15, 2026

Metals & Mining Weekly: Nothing Can Stop the “US HRC Spot Price Momentum Train”… at Least for Now

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Surge Higher vs. Previous Close: Yesterday, Copper +2.16% to $6.02/lb; aluminum +1.19% to $1.65/lb; nickel +3.03% to $9.25/lb; zinc +0.72% to $1.57/lb; lead +0.09% to $1.10/lb; gold +2.14% to $4,842/oz; silver +5.22% to…

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April 6, 2026

Global Macro Strategy: The Iran Macro Playbook; Phase 2 Confirmed; Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed; Six-Week CPI Trigger Now Printing (Fed Policy Trap Has Closed)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

INVESTMENT SUMMARY GLJ Research reiterates its Four-Phase Iran Macro Playbook framework. As of April 6, 2026, Phase 1 is closed and Phase 2 is fully confirmed. The April 10 CPI print — the Six-Week Trigger…

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April 2, 2026

Flash Note: Residential Solar — Channel Check Highlights Installer Disruption Risk (TSLA’s -40% 1Q26 Storage Seg. Volume Miss Confirms GLJ’s CSI Data Published this Morning)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line A channel check this morning between PV Magazine‘s head editor and GLJ Research, LLC surfaces two converging threats to incumbent residential solar installers: (1) rising interest rates are killing the high-pressure sales model, and (2) DIY “backyard solar” formats…

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