Industry Notes


August 5, 2026

Metals & Mining Weekly: No Steel to Be Had — Nucor Hikes Again + HRC Prints 4-Yr High of $1,180/st as Sheet Inventories Crater -24% Y/Y to 2.0 Months + Lead Times Stretch to ~9 Weeks + the 50% Tariff Wall Prices Europe OUT + ISM Inflects +2.3pts = is the Squeeze (higher) Just Getting Started?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher vs. Previous Close: Today, Copper +1.53% to $6.43/lb; aluminum -0.08% to $1.59/lb; nickel -2.13% to $8.80/lb; zinc +1.16% to $1.69/lb; lead +2.12% to $1.05/lb; gold +1.85% to $4,153/oz; silver +3.00%…

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August 5, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 8/5/2026: Industry meeting fuels expectations of upstream price increases but prices remain stable with volumes thin

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$35,480/ton = $5.05/kg) – up 8.6% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 8/5/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

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July 30, 2026

US Rates Strategy | FOMC Review — The Referee Leaves the Field: Warsh Ends Two Decades of Administered/Managed Yields

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fed held yesterday while three members dissented for a hike — and the Chair spent his press conference explaining why he didn’t need one: the bond market’s intermeeting selloff, among the largest in two…

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July 29, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 7/29/2026: Upstream prices soften again as the market awaits signals from an upcoming regulatory meeting

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$32,680/ton = $4.64/kg) – down 4.6% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 7/29/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

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July 22, 2026

California Solar Initiative – May 2026 Data: Installs Fall -44.5% M/M; the Worst Print Since April 2013. The Point Estimate Is Terrible; the Smoothed Base Is Flat. June Decides Which One Is the Signal

By Gordon L. Johnson II

KEY TAKEAWAYS The May 2026 California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) file landed this week, and the headline is ugly enough that the temptation will be to write the obituary. Resist it — for now. Total CA…

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July 22, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 7/22/2026

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$34,250/ton = $4.85/kg) – down 2.6% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 7/22/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

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July 21, 2026

Solar Industry Update – 2Q26 Preview: We Spent 45 Minutes With Solar’s Most Credible Bull. His Bull Case Sounded Familiar

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Bottom Line This morning we hosted Jigar Shah — former head of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office and founder/former CEO of SunEdison — for roughly 45 minutes on the state of U.S….

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July 20, 2026

Solar Industry Update – Storage Is Booming; That’s the Problem (are Headwinds Emerging for the Solar Battery Bulls?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

A European solar market update and a fireside chat with the head of EU sales for Huawei — battery-price deflation is the bull case, the bear case, and the 2Q26 earnings setup. BOTTOM LINE Europe’s…

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July 16, 2026

GLJ US Technology & Market Structure (the A.I. Trade) – “Tokens of Appreciation”, Depreciation of Everything Else

By Gordon L. Johnson II

De-risking the AI trade: the earnings are borrowed, the pricing is collapsing, and the forward curve already knows THE SHORT VERSION We have years learning one lesson over and over: when reported earnings and economic…

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July 15, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 7/15/2026: Supply-Wafers / Poly Down as PV Supply Chain Prices Accelerate Toward a Bottom

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$35,160/ton = $4.99/kg) – down 0.9% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT.Source: Guangzhou Futures exchange. Solar Pricing Metrics – 7/15/2026 Note: EnergyTrend discontinued slurry saw price…

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July 10, 2026

Global Solar Update + China SNEC Conference Channel Check/Fireside Chat Takeaways: The Music Stopped in May in China… Somebody Tell the Bulls

By Gordon L. Johnson II

China May installs -91% y/y; Prices Below Cash Cost Across the Chain; Reiterate SELL on JinkoSolar (-39.3% YTD), Canadian Solar (-36.9% YTD) & Daqo New Energy (-58.4% YTD) The Bottom Line. There are slowdowns, and…

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July 8, 2026

US Steel Industry Channel Check — Boots on the Dock: Majestic Steel on 22 Hikes, Two Weeks of Silence, and Whether the Cycle Has Legs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Q&A with Majestic Steel | Corroborated against SMU, Mysteel & CRU-settled market data The Bottom Line. We went back to the channel. After twenty-two consecutive weekly Nucor HRC price hikes — not a typo (Ex….

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July 7, 2026

GLJ Macro Weekly: Eighteen Treasury Withdrawals, No Deposits; the $442B Bar Tab That Comes Due Every Tues. and Thurs. Until Labor Day

By Gordon L. Johnson II

T-bill settlement days have quietly cost the S&P 500 its entire year. The drain resumes this week. The Bottom Line On the 41 days since late October when the Treasury settled more bills than it…

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July 7, 2026

Metals & Mining Weekly: Rising Imports + Widening Import Arbitrage + 2nd Straight Week Nucor Pauses Prices (After 23 Straight Weeks of Hikes) = N-Term Sentiment Drag

By Gordon L. Johnson II

LME Metal Prices Mostly Higher vs. Previous Close: Today, Copper -0.03% to $6.06/lb; aluminum +0.34% to $1.53/lb; nickel +0.16% to $8.54/lb; zinc +0.97% to $1.65/lb; lead -0.18% to $1.06/lb; gold +0.07% to $4,168/oz; silver -1.07%…

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July 1, 2026

GLJ SOLAR PRICING UPDATE – 7/1/2026: Cost Support Weakens, Downward Price Pressure Persists Across the Solar PV Supply Chain

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Please see bottom of report for important disclosures Gordon L. Johnson/GLJ Research LLC ————————————————– Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$35,820/ton = $5.07/kg) – down 1.8% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT….

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