Industry Notes


September 25, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Recently Updated California Solar Initiative Data Dump Show SolarEdge is in “Big” Trouble, Fireside Chat w/ US Solar Distribution Bellwether (is the “Solar Bear Market” about to Die?), & Does Aug. German Solar Installation Data Suggest Q3 Will “Frighten” the Solar Bulls?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

Read More >>

September 12, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Update From Solar Power International Conference in Vegas: Day 1

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

Read More >>

August 30, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chats w/ Large U.S. Distributor & Leading Chinese Inverter Supplier Shed Light on What to Expect Headed into Q3 Earnings for SEDG/ENPH/JKS/CSIQ/RUN/etc.

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

Read More >>

August 30, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With Home Sales Plunging + Cash Buyers Disappearing + Supply Rising = Is It Time to “Fade” the Homebuilder Stocks, Which Have Materially Outperformed YTD?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the US Housing Market Facing a Serious Problem N-Term (When Looking at the Host of Recently Available Data)? The SPDR S&P Homebuilder Index (XHB; NC) is up +36.1% YTD, significantly outperforming even the S&P…

Read More >>

August 22, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative June Data Dump Shows Collapse in Battery Attach Rates Balanced by “Explosion” in Installs; Yet, Subdued Q3 Guide from CSIQ/SEDG/ENPH Suggests July Data Could Disappoint

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

Read More >>

August 11, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With CPI Accelerating YoY, Core Services CPI Accelerating MoM, & Durable Goods Prices Normalizing at “Scary” High Levels, is the “Disinflation” Bull Thesis in Trouble?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Take on the July CPI Report. In this note, we provide our take on the July CPI report. That is, with Consensus now pricing in the first rate hike as soon as the 3/20/24…

Read More >>

August 10, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat(s) w/ Head of Sales for a Large U.S. Solar Parts Distributor (i.e., are ENPH and SEDG Facing an “Existential” Event?) and a Large Chinese Solar Investment Fund Based in Hong Kong (i.e., is the EU Solar Market Faring Worse than U.S. Investors Realize?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

Read More >>

August 7, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat w/ Head of Sales for Large Global Inverter Player & Our Take on the Sudden Departure of Sunrun’s Chief Accounting Officer Following Earnings

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 7-8), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in…

Read More >>

August 2, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Have You Heard of the Fed’s ‘Other Credit Extensions’ (“OCE”) Emergency Lending Facility & is It Possible the Repayment of OCE Loans this Year Will Create “Chaos” in US Stock Market(s)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In this Note, We Discuss What Could Prove to be a Mar. 2020-Like Black Swan in 3Q23/4Q23. Is there a black swan coming this year that’s currently flying under the radar? In this note, we…

Read More >>

July 27, 2023

Is Sunnova Copying the Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model of Borrowing Short at a Higher Rate than it’s Lending Long, Meaning “Catastrophe” is Only a Matter of Time?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fundamental Question Sunnova Investors Must Ask the Company/Themselves is Simple: “Why Does it Appear Sunnova is Copying the Failed Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model”. While we get into NOVA’s dismal results in the…

Read More >>

July 26, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – 20-City Case Shiller Home Price Index Shows 3rd Consecutive Year-over-Year Price Drop & Homebuyer DTI Ratios Surge; is “Housing Bubble 2.0” at Risk of Popping

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, How’s the Housing Market Shaping Up? In this note, we look at: (a) the recent Case-Shiller National Home Price Index data reported yesterday, as well as (b) US homebuyer debt-to-income ratios (“DTIs”) and downpayment…

Read More >>

July 7, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – “Mr. Market” is Telling Us: Houston, We Have a “Liquidity” Problem

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Update on Global Liquidity from the Ten Central Banks we Track as well as a Steel Industry “Check-Up”. In this note, we look at the current liquidity situation at the world’s largest ten Central Banks…

Read More >>

July 6, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative Apr/May Data Dump Shows Collapse in Battery Installs/Attach Rates & Sharp Fall in Solar Installs; Are Solar Bulls Underestimating the Negative Effects from NEM 3.0 & Collapse in Nat. Gas Prices

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

Read More >>

June 16, 2023

Fireside Chat 2.0 with U.S. Steel Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on What to Expect Over the Coming Months

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Fireside Chat with Steel Industry Veteran Provides Insights into what to Expect Looking Forward. In light of the forward June U.S. spot HRC contracted price falling -1.4% over the past month (Ex. 1), Chinese spot HRC…

Read More >>

June 16, 2023

Fireside Chat 2.0 with U.S. Steel Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on What to Expect Over the Coming Months

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Fireside Chat with Steel Industry Veteran Provides Insights into what to Expect Looking Forward. In light of the forward June U.S. spot HRC contracted price falling -1.4% over the past month (Ex. 1), Chinese spot HRC…

Read More >>