Industry Notes


October 31, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Spiking “Core” Services Inflation, or the Fed’s Key Measuring Stick (i.e., PCE) For Prices + the Return of the “Bond Vigilantes” in the U.S. = Big Trouble Ahead

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? We remind our readers that “core services” PCE inflation is what Fed chair Jerome Powell has been harping about in recent talks, with a laser focus on “core services PCE excluding housing” as…

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October 23, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks in the Midst of a “Humpty Dumpty”-Like Fall & Do “Real” Retail Sales Foretell Macro Pain Ahead?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? As a follow-up to our 10/9/23 note titled “GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the Next Great Shorts?“, since which the SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF has traded down -6.4%…

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October 16, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Both U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) & Census Bureau Data Show U.S. Cell/Module Imports on the Rise; What’s this Mean for ASPs & Q3 Cell Vendor Revs/EPS?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 4-5), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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October 9, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the “Next Great Short”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, which is a follow-up to our 8/30/23 GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly, where we asked: “Is it Time to Fade the Homebuilder Stocks“, we look at: (a) wage growth in the U.S.,…

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September 28, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – US Solar Installations are Collapsing + US Solar Cell/Module Imports are Surging = Pending “Nightmare Before Christmas” for US Cell & Module Prices

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 4-5), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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September 25, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Does the Recently Updated California Solar Initiative Data Dump Show SolarEdge is in “Big” Trouble, Fireside Chat w/ US Solar Distribution Bellwether (is the “Solar Bear Market” about to Die?), & Does Aug. German Solar Installation Data Suggest Q3 Will “Frighten” the Solar Bulls?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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September 12, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Update From Solar Power International Conference in Vegas: Day 1

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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August 30, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chats w/ Large U.S. Distributor & Leading Chinese Inverter Supplier Shed Light on What to Expect Headed into Q3 Earnings for SEDG/ENPH/JKS/CSIQ/RUN/etc.

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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August 30, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With Home Sales Plunging + Cash Buyers Disappearing + Supply Rising = Is It Time to “Fade” the Homebuilder Stocks, Which Have Materially Outperformed YTD?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the US Housing Market Facing a Serious Problem N-Term (When Looking at the Host of Recently Available Data)? The SPDR S&P Homebuilder Index (XHB; NC) is up +36.1% YTD, significantly outperforming even the S&P…

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August 22, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative June Data Dump Shows Collapse in Battery Attach Rates Balanced by “Explosion” in Installs; Yet, Subdued Q3 Guide from CSIQ/SEDG/ENPH Suggests July Data Could Disappoint

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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August 11, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – With CPI Accelerating YoY, Core Services CPI Accelerating MoM, & Durable Goods Prices Normalizing at “Scary” High Levels, is the “Disinflation” Bull Thesis in Trouble?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Our Take on the July CPI Report. In this note, we provide our take on the July CPI report. That is, with Consensus now pricing in the first rate hike as soon as the 3/20/24…

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August 10, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat(s) w/ Head of Sales for a Large U.S. Solar Parts Distributor (i.e., are ENPH and SEDG Facing an “Existential” Event?) and a Large Chinese Solar Investment Fund Based in Hong Kong (i.e., is the EU Solar Market Faring Worse than U.S. Investors Realize?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 1-2), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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August 7, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat w/ Head of Sales for Large Global Inverter Player & Our Take on the Sudden Departure of Sunrun’s Chief Accounting Officer Following Earnings

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 7-8), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in…

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August 2, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Have You Heard of the Fed’s ‘Other Credit Extensions’ (“OCE”) Emergency Lending Facility & is It Possible the Repayment of OCE Loans this Year Will Create “Chaos” in US Stock Market(s)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In this Note, We Discuss What Could Prove to be a Mar. 2020-Like Black Swan in 3Q23/4Q23. Is there a black swan coming this year that’s currently flying under the radar? In this note, we…

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July 27, 2023

Is Sunnova Copying the Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model of Borrowing Short at a Higher Rate than it’s Lending Long, Meaning “Catastrophe” is Only a Matter of Time?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fundamental Question Sunnova Investors Must Ask the Company/Themselves is Simple: “Why Does it Appear Sunnova is Copying the Failed Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) Business Model”. While we get into NOVA’s dismal results in the…

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