Industry Notes


January 10, 2024

GLJ Macro Weekly – Was a Massive “Bull Trap” Set Following Janet Yellen’s Oct. 31st QRA “Shocker”, and is a 1Q24 Rug Pull Likely When Observing the Data?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Huh? Did you Say the 4Q23 Market Surge was a “Bull Trap“? First off, we note that J. Yellen’s Oct. 31st Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”) shocked market participants by focusing the US government’s 4Q23/1Q24 funding…

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January 4, 2024

GLJ Solar Weekly – Nov. California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Nov.) Shows Collapsing US Solar Installs, Yet Provides Continued “Glimmer of Light” for PV Battery Space, & Update on 2023 European Solar Installs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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December 28, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – What if the Same “Catalyst” that Sparked the Record 4Q23 Stock Market Surge is Set to Force the Fed’s Hand on Resetting Rate Cut Expectations (Meaning a Sell-Off is Near)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Did Janet Yellen Intentionally Squeeze the Long-Duration Bond Shorts with her 10/31/23 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QRA”), and is it About to Make the Fed’s Job a Lot Harder? By way of background, we remind our…

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December 21, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Both U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”), but More Importantly Census Bureau Data, Show a Spike in U.S. Cell/Module Imports, Begging the Question: ‘What’s this Mean for ASPs & Q4 Cell Vendor Revs/EPS?’

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 5-6), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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December 15, 2023

Are the Solar Asset Backed Security (“ABS”) Bonds Issued by the Likes of Sunnova/Sunrun/SunPower the Second-Coming of the Solar YieldCo Ponzi Schemes that Bankrupted Solar Bellwether SunEdison?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Solar ABS Bonds the “Second Coming” of the Solar YieldCo Ponzi Schemes that Effectively Bankrupted SunEdison? SunEdison, the once high-flying solar company seen by many as the solar “savior” of the industry (i.e., it…

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December 13, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – What Does the Nov. Acceleration in Core Services Inflation + The Loosest Financial Conditions, Currently, Since Before the Fed Began Hiking Rates = Mean for Whether Powell will Lean Dovish or Hawkish Today?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How’s Inflation Trending, and Just How Loose Are Financial Conditions at Present Ahead of the Fed’s Rate Decision/Powell’s Testimony Later Today? In this note, in detail, we analyze yesterday’s CPI inflation report, and also look…

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December 10, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Oct.) Paints “Grim” Picture for SEDG/ENPH, Yet Provides “Glimmer of Light” for PV Battery Space, & Update on German, UK, & Italian Monthly Solar Installs

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 14-15), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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November 19, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Is the Fed About to, De Facto, Use the Remaining ~$936bn in Reverse Repo Facility Reserves to “Spray” Stocks w/ Fresh-Cash Through (at least) Mar. 2024?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, we detail why, with last week’s release of the US Treasury’s latest Quarterly Refunding Announcement (“QTR”), the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury, through 1Q24E, will likely…

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November 16, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Is the Next “Nasty” Leg Lower for Sunrun/Sunnova/Sunpower Imminent, is Jinko Solar’s Stock Being “Talked” Higher Right Ahead of Insider Selling, & Fireside Chat w/ China Solar Market Expert(s) on State of EU Solar Inventory

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, below we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 15-16), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in…

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November 3, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump (i.e., Inverter, Storage, Installer, Battery, & Module Market Share Thru Sep.) Reveals “Shocking” Share Shifts; & Fireside Chat w/ China Solar Market Expert Sheds Light on What to Expect in the World’s Largest Market for Solar Demand N-Term

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 12-13), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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October 31, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Spiking “Core” Services Inflation, or the Fed’s Key Measuring Stick (i.e., PCE) For Prices + the Return of the “Bond Vigilantes” in the U.S. = Big Trouble Ahead

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? We remind our readers that “core services” PCE inflation is what Fed chair Jerome Powell has been harping about in recent talks, with a laser focus on “core services PCE excluding housing” as…

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October 23, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks in the Midst of a “Humpty Dumpty”-Like Fall & Do “Real” Retail Sales Foretell Macro Pain Ahead?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? As a follow-up to our 10/9/23 note titled “GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the Next Great Shorts?“, since which the SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF has traded down -6.4%…

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October 16, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Both U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) & Census Bureau Data Show U.S. Cell/Module Imports on the Rise; What’s this Mean for ASPs & Q3 Cell Vendor Revs/EPS?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 4-5), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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October 9, 2023

GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly – Are Homebuilder Stocks Setting up as the “Next Great Short”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What’s Up? In this note, which is a follow-up to our 8/30/23 GLJ Macro/Steel Weekly, where we asked: “Is it Time to Fade the Homebuilder Stocks“, we look at: (a) wage growth in the U.S.,…

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September 28, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – US Solar Installations are Collapsing + US Solar Cell/Module Imports are Surging = Pending “Nightmare Before Christmas” for US Cell & Module Prices

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 4-5), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. Last week, price changes in China…

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