Industry Notes


March 15, 2023

Weekly Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/15/23) – Domestic Chinese Poly-Si Prices “Tumble Again”; Wafer Prices, However, Perk Up

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 3/15/23 – PVInsights. “Polysilicon struggles between sales and pricing amid rising inventories and surge downside risks. Polysilicon prices tumbled on Wednesday as the disappointing stockpile drawdown raised fears of the glut and weighed on…

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March 10, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – US Money Supply is Officially Contracting for the First Time Since the Great Depression; Should I be Worried?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Should Investors Worry that US M2 is Officially Falling as the Velocity of M2 Stages a Violent Resurgence? As we’re seeing with Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB; NC), free money, while attractive when it’s flowing, can…

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March 9, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – Fire Side Chat w/ Top U.S. Solar Distribution Behemoth Sheds Light on Current State of U.S. Solar Market

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…

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March 8, 2023

Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/8/23) – Price Declines Accelerate Week-Over-Week, with 600mm UHP Prices Down -2.51%; US HRC Futures Prices “Stop Going Up”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices Give Back (Even More) of the Recent Gains. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite electrode substrates in RMB and…

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March 8, 2023

Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/8/23) – Poly-Si Prices “Re-Tumble”; Mono PERC Module Prices Also Weaken (now down -7.02% YTD)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 3/8/23 – PVInsights. “Polysilicon prices slide on surging inventory dumping tensions. Polysilicon prices tumbled on Wednesday as the market reeled from fears of another ramp-up in capacity expansion and a large build in China…

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February 28, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Disinflation Euphoria Hit With “Red-Hot” Inflation, Highest Services PCE Since 1984, & Upward Revisions to Oct.-Dec. Inflation Data

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fed’s Inflation Problem is Turning into a “Horror Movie”. As we have said many times, the Fed’s measuring stick for its 2% inflation target is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price index, and specifically…

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February 22, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – 4Q22 California Solar Initiative Update + U.S. Solar Import/Install Update + EU Solar Demand Update

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 12-13), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. Last week, price changes in China for…

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February 21, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Global Central Banks are “Unilaterally” Withdrawing Liquidity to Fight Inflation; This Will Likely Prove a Headwind to Risk Assets

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Global Central Banks Saw Their Combined Balance Sheets Fall -$237.1B 2/8/23-to-2/15/23, Led by the ECB’s -$127.0B Week-over-Week (“WoW”) Fall. We are of the mindset that the surge in global liquidity since the onset of COVID…

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February 13, 2023

What if We Told You We Had a “Magic Elixir” That Allows You to Predict the S&P 500 w/ 84.5% Accuracy?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What is the Best Measure of Liquidity, and is the Recent “Reckless” Infusion of Liquidity by the Fed the Real Reason Stocks Have Surged Since 2009? In short, looking at the .OLIQ G INDEX on…

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February 5, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Were Hedge Funds Caught on the Wrong Side of J. Powell and is the Violent Upside Seen YTD Set to Reverse Just as Fast as it Emerged?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

There has been an Earthquake at Quant Funds that Has Sent Meme Stocks (TSLA + AMC + COIN + GME + BBBY + etc.) Soaring; is it Sustainable? The bears have been decimated this year,…

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January 31, 2023

Solar Snippet – Is NEM 2.0 “Pull-In” Going to Benefit 4Q22 Results & 1Q23E Guide, & Does SolarEdge Have More Resi Inverters Available?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sell-Side Non-Deal Roadshow Last Week Points to NEM 2.0 Pull-In; Should the “Solar Bears” be Worried? In short, last week, we received a number of requests from institutional solar investors no our opinions around the…

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January 30, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Is Core Inflation Re-Accelerating, Is Spending on Goods (Following Pandemic Binge) Fizzling Out, and Is there An Easy Explanation for the Recent Surge in “Meme” Stocks?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

While Many Claim the “Inflation Monster” has Been Slayed, with December Services Inflation Spiking and Core PCE Re-Accelerating (Balanced, Modestly, by Goods Inflation Plunging) We Foresee a More Hawkish Powell Later this Week. As is…

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January 25, 2023

Solar Pricing Update (Week of 1/25/23) – Poly-Si + Wafer + Cell Prices Muted Due to CNY; Module Prices, However, Fall

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 1/25/23 – PVInsights. “Depressed international solar modules, muted China silicon materials during Lunar New Year holiday January 25, 2023. Polysilicon was roughly flat on Wednesday as the market in China stayed mute amid…

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January 23, 2023

Nov. California Solar Initiative Insights Into U.S. Battery Storage Trends + 2022 U.S. Solar Imports/Installs Update + State of China Solar Demand

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Solar Weekly Update – Focus on Nov. Battery Storage Data/China Demand Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday…

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January 18, 2023

Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 1/18/23) – Price Declines Accelerate Week-Over-Week, with 600mm UHP Prices Down -2.55%

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices Give Back (Even More) of the Recent Gains. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite electrode substrates in…

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