Our Research


June 1, 2023

First Solar is the Best House on a (Very) Bad Block; Upgrade to HOLD on “Strong Story” we Cannot Yet Disprove

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Believe the Solar Industry is in the Beginning Innings of One of the Most Severe Supply Surpluses its Ever Seen. FSLR said on its 4/27/23 Q1 earnings conference call that “based on the current…

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May 25, 2023

GLJ Macro Weekly – Does the Re-Acceleration in April Rent Inflation Suggest the Fed’s Victory Lap About “Having Licked” Rent Inflation was… Premature?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is There a Pending Disaster Brewing on the Fed’s Inflation Fight Front, which is Flying Completely Under the Radar? In recent communications with the market, the Fed has expressed its view that core inflation (i.e.,…

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May 23, 2023

Tesla’s Week 7 China Sales Disappoint, Forcing the Company to Export Made-in-China (“MIC”) Cars from Shanghai to Canada for the First Time Ever (this is not what growth companies do)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Reports Week Seven Domestic China Sales. Just now, we got updated insurance data from China regarding TSLA’s week seven domestic China sales. And, the numbers were lackluster at best. That is, with 10.2K cars…

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May 23, 2023

GLJ Solar Weekly – Fireside Chat w/ Top-3 US Solar Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on How 2Q23 is Trending; Plus, EIA Updates on Imports, Installs, and Shipments as Well as EU Solar Market Update

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 5-6), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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May 22, 2023

GLJ Research Macro Update: “Magical Elixir” Update – So Far, The “GLJ Research Elixir” Has Worked in Predicting Stock Market Moves… So What’s to Come?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Invesco QQQ Index and the Treasury General Account (“TGA”) Balance Have Tracked Each Other Quite Closely Since 11/1/22. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s TGA account balance (i.e., the “piggy…

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May 19, 2023

Is Iron Ore the Next “Big Short” – i.e., Looking at a Plethora of Chinese Data, is the Long-Fabled $20/mt Iron Ore Price Back on the Table?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Has the Greatest Iron Ore (“IO”) Commodity Consumption Bubble in History Burst, Suggesting Underappreciated Risk to IO Prices in 2H23/2024? In the analysis put fourth within this report, we look to answer the question posed…

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May 18, 2023

GLJ Research Macro Update – What if we Told you We had a “Magical Elixir” that Could Help you Outperform Tech Stocks (i.e., the QQQs) Until the Debt Ceiling was Resolved?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Invesco QQQ Index and the Treasury General Account (“TGA”) Balance Have Tracked Each Other Quite Closely Since 11/1/22. As detailed in Ex. 1 below, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s TGA account balance (i.e., the “piggy…

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May 16, 2023

How Are Sales & Inventory Trending for Tesla in China, the U.S., and Europe Quarter-to-Date & What’s Our Latest Est. on 2Q23E GAAP EPS?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Checkup Time for Tesla in its Core Three Markets of China, the U.S., and Europe. In the following, we provide an update on China (to include today’s weekly insurance data for the week of May…

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May 10, 2023

GLJ Metals & Mining Weekly – J. Powell’s Claim Red-Hot Rent CPI Will Simply “Vanish” Appears Wishful Based on Comments from Landlords (Even for April)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Comments from Landlords and Tenants Suggest J. Powell’s Prediction “Sizzling” Rent CPI Inflation will Vanish in 2H23 May Prove Aspirational. Rather it’s comments from the largest publicly-traded landlords of single-family homes in the US, or…

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May 5, 2023

What if We Told You Instead of Growing +39% in ’22, Sunnova’s Recurring EBITDA Fell -47%, & Instead of Coming in at +$14.6mn in 1Q23, its Recurring EBITDA was Actually -$17.4mn (i.e., its Core Biz is Currently “Hemorrhaging” Cash)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Believe After Adjusting for Accounting Changes Sunnova has Made, Their Recurring Adjusted EBITDA Looks Much Different. Anyone who knows Sunnova (NOVA; NC), knows they are the kings of newly introduced non-GAAP accounting metrics –…

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May 2, 2023

GLJ Inflation Watch Update – Sticky Inflation is Becoming Entrenched: Core PCE Price Index Stubbornly High at ~5% for 6 Months; Is the Fed Failing, Meaning a Hawkish +25bps/No Pause is on Deck for this Wednesday’s Fed Meeting?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Large Asset Manager Provides Insights into What One Should do If the Fed is Going to Hike 25bps and Signal No Pause Yet this Wednesday. In our discussion with one of the largest U.S. hedge…

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April 27, 2023

Is There an “Existential Threat” to Owning the Solar Resi Names (RUN/NOVA/SPWR) & is it Being Ignored, Similar to the Fate that Befell SunEdison Shortly Before Bankruptcy?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Investors Currently Unaware/Ignoring the “Existential” Risks Facing the Subprime Solar Lending Industry? As detailed in Ex. 1 below, according to bond rating agency Kroll, default rates on solar loans are currently on the upswing….

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April 26, 2023

Update on Tesla’s Standing in the Chinese Auto Market (to Include Weekly Sales & 1Q23 Market Share Fluctuations) as well as US/EU Inventory

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Notwithstanding Speculation about its Early “Demise”, Chinese Data on Weekly Cars Sales is Still Available. Despite claims by many, including GLJ Research, that China was discontinuing its weekly reporting on automobile sales, the data set…

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April 25, 2023

Fireside Chat with U.S. Steel Distribution Bellwether Sheds Light on What to Expect Over the Coming Months

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Fireside Chat with Steel Industry Veteran Provides Insights into what to Expect Looking Forward. In light of the forward May U.S. spot HRC contracted price falling -6.4% over the past month (Ex. 1), Chinese spot…

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April 19, 2023

1Q23E Earnings Preview – We Believe a Miss is Likely on Deck (we see Q1 Revs/Margins Missing Cons, & Negative Free Cash Flow)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

After Updating our Bottom-Up Model, we See Risk(s) to Consensus’ 1Q23 Estimates. In what follows, we provide the key assumptions that drive our 1Q23E rev/adj.-EPS ests. of $22.590bn/$0.64 vs. Cons’ $23.365bn/$0.86 ests. (i.e., a miss),…

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