March 16, 2026
We digest client feedback and note a consensus that management will significantly lower company-wide incremental margins from pre-Thermal divestiture guided mid-30’s with buyside bogeys clustering around mid-20’s incremental EBIT margins. We break apart the puts…
March 16, 2026
Investment Thesis – Estimate & Macro Update We reiterate our SELL rating on CLF and keep our 12-month price target flat at $9.42/share — reflecting the February 10 GLJ update note valuation methodology (13.0x 2026E…
March 16, 2026
Investment Thesis – Management Feedback We had a chance to catch up with Nextpower management (IR contact: Sarah Lee) on March 13, 2026 for a 36-minute discussion covering eight topics spanning the company’s product strategy,…
March 13, 2026
Investment Thesis California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) January 2026 data delivers a verdict across two distinct dimensions: (1) the post-ITC pull-forward hangover is confirmed, with the MLPE duopoly’s inverter and storage share erosion accelerating; and (2)…
March 12, 2026
Austin FSD Rollout Failure: Fleet Collapse, Crash Data & Management Exodus EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This update incorporates three new data layers since our June 5th, 2025 initial Austin note: (1) NHTSA-sourced crash rate analysis confirming Tesla’s…
March 11, 2026
LME Metal Prices Mixed Today vs. Previous Close: Today, Copper +1.34% to $5.92/lb; aluminum +2.25% to $1.66/lb; nickel -1.29% to $9.32/lb; zinc +0.11% to $1.61/lb; lead -0.17% to $1.10/lb; gold -0.23% to $5,180/oz; silver -1.90% to…
March 10, 2026
The Supermarket Thesis The core insight is structural, not cyclical: NXT’s customers are consolidating, and NXT is one of the only vendors with the execution capability to consolidate their SKUs vertically. This is a supermarket…
March 5, 2026
We initiate coverage on nVent Electric at BUY w/ a street-high $151PT and estimates to match. We believe that despite management’s best efforts, the analyst community is mismodeling the size and growth of NVT’s liquid…
March 5, 2026
We initiate coverage of POWL at HOLD with a $450PT as channel checks and management commentary call into question the data center narrative priced into the stock. We model +MSD% upside to sellside numbers, but…
March 5, 2026
We initiate coverage on Solaris Energy Infrastructure at BUY with a $60PT even as BYoG power generation continues to prove itself through incremental contracting at extended durations. Speed-to-power continues to resonate in industry conversations as…
March 4, 2026
Investment Thesis FSLR 4Q25 Earnings: Ugly Guide, but the Real Story is What Comes Next The headline: 2026 guidance was a meaningful miss across every metric – revenue, volumes, and EBITDA – and it wasn’t…
March 3, 2026
Investment Thesis Sunrun is materially overvalued on any rigorous DCF construction – the stock is pricing in an outcome that the underlying cash flow trajectory does not support. Our $6.73 price target is anchored to…
March 2, 2026
LME Metal Prices Mostly Lower vs. Previous Close: Today, Copper -1.92% to $5.92/lb; aluminum +0.94% to $1.57/lb; nickel -2.00% to $9.32/lb; zinc -0.48% to $1.61/lb; lead -0.35% to $1.10/lb; gold +0.60% to $5,311/oz; silver -6.52% to…
February 27, 2026
Investment Thesis Headline beat masks deteriorating unit economics. Revenue inflated by asset-sale accounting. Volume declining. Creation costs rising. 2026E Cash Generation guidance of $350M midpoint is $110M below Street consensus – a material miss being…
February 26, 2026
Please see bottom of report for important disclosures Gordon L. Johnson/GLJ Research LLC ————————————————– Polysilicon Futures Spot Contract Price (CNY$47,630/ton = $6.65/kg) – down 3.4% w/w Note: Adjusted for CNY exchange rate and 13% VAT….