Our Research


April 18, 2023

Surging U.S. Risk-Free Interest Rates + Weak CA Installs in Jan./Feb. + New PG&E Rate Reform Proposal = Tough Times Ahead for SunPower

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Expect Stronger Headwinds for SunPower in 1H23E vs. Cons. Expectations; 2H23E Could Also be Plagued with Economic Hardships as a Solar Price War Erupts. On 2/16/23, when SPWR provided 2023E guidance for: (a) 90K-110K…

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April 14, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – February 2023 California Solar Initiative (“CSI”) Data Dump & “Fire Side Chat” with the Head of Sales for Leading Global Chinese Inverter Supplier (i.e., have inverter margins, globally, peaked?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 10-11), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend, PVInsights, and PVInfolink, respectively. This week, price changes in China…

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April 12, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Is The Fed Failing to Cool the Labor Market, Meaning Inflation is Becoming Entrenched (i.e., the Fed’s “worst nightmare”)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Is the Current Labor Market Tighter than Even the “Feel Good Times” Pre-Pandemic? The question on the minds of many is, given an (amazingly) still-tight labor market means consumers are still working/making money, incomes are…

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April 4, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Is the S&P 500 Index About to Get Hit with a “Mike Tyson Uppercut” in the Form of a U.S. Debt Ceiling Agreement?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The U.S. Treasury’s Cash on Hand is Running Very Low; Should This Scare Equity Bulls? As displayed in Ex. 1 below, following last week’s drain of $76.0bn, the federal government is running dangerously low on…

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April 3, 2023

Tesla Reports 422.9K Cars Delivered vs. Factset Est. of 430K (a miss) & Days Sales in Inventory Spike for Record 4th Straight Quarter

By Gordon L. Johnson II

If it Wasn’t Clear Before, it Now is… Tesla Has a Demand Problem. Yesterday, while many of us were catching up on NBA basketball/lawn-work, TSLA reported 1Q23 car deliveries of 422.9K cars (where the sale…

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March 30, 2023

In Light of Jinko’s Sizeable Q4 Miss, What Does Our Model Point to For 2023E Rev/EPS Given the Current Global Oversupply of “Solar Parts”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

In Light of its Sizeable Q4 adj.-GAAP EPS Miss ($0.82A vs. $1.20 est.), is the Street Still Too Optimistic? With global high-efficiency mono PERC module prices already down -8.8% YTD (vs. a full-year 2022 fall…

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March 29, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Are There Storm Clouds Ahead in “U.S. Steelville”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Should One be Buying Steel Stocks (i.e., US Steel and Cleveland Cliffs), or Selling them? In light of our recent double downgrades of both US Steel (X; SELL) and Cleveland Cliffs (CLF; SELL), we wanted…

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March 28, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – Fire Side Chat w/ Top U.S. Solar Distribution “Behemoth” Sheds Light on Current State of U.S. Solar Market Ahead of Q1 Results

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 2-3), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…

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March 28, 2023

In Our Final Update for the Qtr, We Cut Our Q1 Delivery Est. Sharply to Reflect an Earlier-Than-Expected Start of the Q2 “Demand Crush”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Cut our 1Q23 Delivery Estimate by -5.6% to Reflect Early Start to Demand “Crush” in China + EU. Overnight, we got an update on TSLA’s sale of vehicles in China (where demand fell -15.1%…

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March 23, 2023

Will Tesla’s 1Q23 Auto Deliveries Actually Surprise to the Upside Due to “Otherworldly” Price Cuts Since January?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Tesla’s Car Sales Slated to Pull Ahead of the Current Consensus Estimate of 419.706K? In short, after an extensive overview of all of TSLA’s key markets last night (China + EU + USA +…

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March 22, 2023

Weekly Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/22/23) – GE Prices Flat Again; US HRC Futures Move (Slightly) Lower, Chinese Rebar Prices Now -3.3% Off Recent Highs (Is the “Grand Reopening” Fizzling?)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices “Quiet” this Week After Big Declines; US HRC Prices Appear to be Stabilizing. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite…

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March 22, 2023

Weekly Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/22/23) – Domestic Chinese Poly-Si Prices “Crushed” Again; Module Prices Join in the Price Recession

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 3/22/23 – PVInsights. “Surging supply keep weakening polysilicon and solar modules. Polysilicon prices weakened this week as suppliers worried about a potential escalation of inventories amid rising supply, and Chinese buyers stayed their expectation…

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March 21, 2023

We Have Confirmed that a Large Publicly-Traded Solar Resi Rooftop Player Who Has a $575mn Warehouse Line w/ Credit Suisse Has Not Transferred this Facility to Apollo; Uh Oh!

By Gordon L. Johnson II

So, Is Apollo the Current Administration Agent/Lender for RUN’s $1.8bn Warehouse Facility? While many – including two heads of structured product groups at Tier 1 investment banks – tell us they “believe” Apollo did indeed…

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March 20, 2023

GLJ Research Updated Solar Industry Pitch Book – Updated 2023E Solar Thesis

By Gordon L. Johnson II

We Have Updated our 35-Page Solar Deck. In short, the core themes detailed in our updated solar pitch book include: (1) our view that pol-Si will return to oversupply this year, crashing prices back down…

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March 19, 2023

Were You Aware that Sunnova is, as Per a 3/16/23 8-K Filing, Seeking a De Facto $3.3bn US Government Funded Bailout (and Their General Counsel Has Retired Effective Immediately)?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Skimming Sunnova’s 8-K Filings this Morning, we Made a Significant Discovery. Skimming NOVA’s website today, we found a groundbreaking 8-K filing that seems to be flying under the radar. That is, we found that: (a)…

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