Our Research


March 15, 2023

Weekly Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/15/23) – Prices Flat Across the Board; US HRC Futures Stabilize, While US Rebar Prices Edge Lower

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices “Quiet” this Week After Big Declines; US HRC Prices Appear to be Stabilizing. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite…

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March 15, 2023

Weekly Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/15/23) – Domestic Chinese Poly-Si Prices “Tumble Again”; Wafer Prices, However, Perk Up

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 3/15/23 – PVInsights. “Polysilicon struggles between sales and pricing amid rising inventories and surge downside risks. Polysilicon prices tumbled on Wednesday as the disappointing stockpile drawdown raised fears of the glut and weighed on…

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March 14, 2023

Fireside Chat with Executive Director of Bulge-Bracket Solar ABS Desk Sheds Light on the Many “Hidden” Risks Facing the Resi Rooftop Solar Vendors (Q&A Below)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are the Risks to Sunrun and Other ABS Solar Issuers Much More “Pronounced” Than Investors Currently Appreciate? Today, we had the opportunity to chat with the head of a major investment bank’s solar ABS desk….

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March 10, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – US Money Supply is Officially Contracting for the First Time Since the Great Depression; Should I be Worried?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Should Investors Worry that US M2 is Officially Falling as the Velocity of M2 Stages a Violent Resurgence? As we’re seeing with Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB; NC), free money, while attractive when it’s flowing, can…

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March 9, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – Fire Side Chat w/ Top U.S. Solar Distribution Behemoth Sheds Light on Current State of U.S. Solar Market

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. This week, price changes in China for…

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March 8, 2023

Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 3/8/23) – Price Declines Accelerate Week-Over-Week, with 600mm UHP Prices Down -2.51%; US HRC Futures Prices “Stop Going Up”

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices Give Back (Even More) of the Recent Gains. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite electrode substrates in RMB and…

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March 8, 2023

Solar Pricing Update (Week of 3/8/23) – Poly-Si Prices “Re-Tumble”; Mono PERC Module Prices Also Weaken (now down -7.02% YTD)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 3/8/23 – PVInsights. “Polysilicon prices slide on surging inventory dumping tensions. Polysilicon prices tumbled on Wednesday as the market reeled from fears of another ramp-up in capacity expansion and a large build in China…

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March 7, 2023

Tesla Weekly China Sales Update & Feb. 2023 EU Sales Overview – What to Expect for 1Q23E Deliveries?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla China Sales Figures are in for the Week of Feb 27-Mar 5. Early this morning, we got updated sales figures for TSLA for the past week. In short, TSLA’s weekly sales came in at…

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March 1, 2023

“Beware the Ides of March”, or in this Case Severe Deflation Set to Take Hold of Global Polysilicon Prices

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Daqo Just Reported 4Q22 Results that Missed Consensus by a “Nautical Mile” (as we warned 11/30/22). Yesterday, before the open, global polysilicon bellwether Daqo New Energy (“DQ”) reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $864M/$648M/$4.71, respectively, sharply missing…

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February 28, 2023

Tesla’s China Sales Bomb, Missing Consensus by “a Mile”; & What to Expect at the Upcoming Investor Day (hint – more mistruths/hype)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s China Sales Come in at 10.705K for the Week of Feb. 20th-Feb. 26th, or a -44.5% Miss to Consensus’ 19.302K Est. Ladies and gentlemen, it’s official, and even the (honest) TSLA bulls will tell…

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February 28, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Disinflation Euphoria Hit With “Red-Hot” Inflation, Highest Services PCE Since 1984, & Upward Revisions to Oct.-Dec. Inflation Data

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fed’s Inflation Problem is Turning into a “Horror Movie”. As we have said many times, the Fed’s measuring stick for its 2% inflation target is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price index, and specifically…

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February 27, 2023

We Believe we May Know the Reason Sunrun’s Co-Founder is “Suddenly” Stepping Down – i.e., he does not want to be associated w/ this “thing” when it comes tumbling down (i.e., Sunrun is guiding a 1% change in discount rate = a 40% fall in its subscriber value)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

WHAT’S UP? So… Sunrun reports the value it sells systems in the open market as “purchase customer ASP”, and the value it shows the IRS for tax collection purposes (where it uses a cockamamie 25-30yr…

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February 23, 2023

Cash-Incinerating “Dark Science Project” Sunrun is Destroying Capital at an Amazing Clip

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sunrun Sees Record Free-Cash-Flow Burn in Q4 and (Again) Doesn’t Earn its Cost of Capital. Yesterday, subprime solar roofing bellwether RUN reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $609M/-$70M/$0.29 vs. Cons’ $585.3M/-$39.8M/-$0.26. Furthermore, free-cash-flow came in at a…

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February 22, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – 4Q22 California Solar Initiative Update + U.S. Solar Import/Install Update + EU Solar Demand Update

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 12-13), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. Last week, price changes in China for…

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February 21, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Global Central Banks are “Unilaterally” Withdrawing Liquidity to Fight Inflation; This Will Likely Prove a Headwind to Risk Assets

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Global Central Banks Saw Their Combined Balance Sheets Fall -$237.1B 2/8/23-to-2/15/23, Led by the ECB’s -$127.0B Week-over-Week (“WoW”) Fall. We are of the mindset that the surge in global liquidity since the onset of COVID…

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