March 1, 2023
Daqo Just Reported 4Q22 Results that Missed Consensus by a “Nautical Mile” (as we warned 11/30/22). Yesterday, before the open, global polysilicon bellwether Daqo New Energy (“DQ”) reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $864M/$648M/$4.71, respectively, sharply missing…
February 28, 2023
Tesla’s China Sales Come in at 10.705K for the Week of Feb. 20th-Feb. 26th, or a -44.5% Miss to Consensus’ 19.302K Est. Ladies and gentlemen, it’s official, and even the (honest) TSLA bulls will tell…
February 28, 2023
The Fed’s Inflation Problem is Turning into a “Horror Movie”. As we have said many times, the Fed’s measuring stick for its 2% inflation target is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price index, and specifically…
February 27, 2023
WHAT’S UP? So… Sunrun reports the value it sells systems in the open market as “purchase customer ASP”, and the value it shows the IRS for tax collection purposes (where it uses a cockamamie 25-30yr…
February 23, 2023
Sunrun Sees Record Free-Cash-Flow Burn in Q4 and (Again) Doesn’t Earn its Cost of Capital. Yesterday, subprime solar roofing bellwether RUN reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $609M/-$70M/$0.29 vs. Cons’ $585.3M/-$39.8M/-$0.26. Furthermore, free-cash-flow came in at a…
February 22, 2023
Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 12-13), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. Last week, price changes in China for…
February 21, 2023
Global Central Banks Saw Their Combined Balance Sheets Fall -$237.1B 2/8/23-to-2/15/23, Led by the ECB’s -$127.0B Week-over-Week (“WoW”) Fall. We are of the mindset that the surge in global liquidity since the onset of COVID…
February 21, 2023
Tesla Posts “Scary” Chinese Numbers. TSLA reported China sales for the week of Feb. 13-Feb. 19, and the numbers were disappointing yet again. That is, we note: (a) TSLA’s domestic China sales were down -15.1%…
February 17, 2023
How’d It All Begin? So… the entire full-self-drive mistruth/deception, in our view, began with the credibly alleged fraudulent (according to Bloomberg – link) “Paint it Black” video (link) from 2016, which remains on TSLA’s website….
February 14, 2023
Were TSLA’s Jan. 5th 13.4%-to-17.0% China Price Cuts Simply Not Enough? In short, as detailed in Ex. 1 below, we remind our readers that in TSLA’s most important/profitable market of China, on Jan. 5th, 2023,…
February 13, 2023
What is the Best Measure of Liquidity, and is the Recent “Reckless” Infusion of Liquidity by the Fed the Real Reason Stocks Have Surged Since 2009? In short, looking at the .OLIQ G INDEX on…
February 9, 2023
Despite a Strong Reaction in the Stock the Day it Reported Q4 Earnings (i.e., Feb. 3rd), with Big River (i.e., X’s Mini-Mill) Reporting Negative EBIT in Q4, as Well as Negative EBIT in X’s USSE…
February 5, 2023
There has been an Earthquake at Quant Funds that Has Sent Meme Stocks (TSLA + AMC + COIN + GME + BBBY + etc.) Soaring; is it Sustainable? The bears have been decimated this year,…
January 31, 2023
Sell-Side Non-Deal Roadshow Last Week Points to NEM 2.0 Pull-In; Should the “Solar Bears” be Worried? In short, last week, we received a number of requests from institutional solar investors no our opinions around the…
January 31, 2023
Despite Comments to the Contrary from E. Musk on TSLA’s Q4 Earnings Call, Stagnant Lead-Times in China, Despite Sharp Price Cuts, Suggest Tesla Has a Demand Problem in its Largest Market. By way of background,…