Our Research


March 1, 2023

“Beware the Ides of March”, or in this Case Severe Deflation Set to Take Hold of Global Polysilicon Prices

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Daqo Just Reported 4Q22 Results that Missed Consensus by a “Nautical Mile” (as we warned 11/30/22). Yesterday, before the open, global polysilicon bellwether Daqo New Energy (“DQ”) reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $864M/$648M/$4.71, respectively, sharply missing…

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February 28, 2023

Tesla’s China Sales Bomb, Missing Consensus by “a Mile”; & What to Expect at the Upcoming Investor Day (hint – more mistruths/hype)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s China Sales Come in at 10.705K for the Week of Feb. 20th-Feb. 26th, or a -44.5% Miss to Consensus’ 19.302K Est. Ladies and gentlemen, it’s official, and even the (honest) TSLA bulls will tell…

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February 28, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Disinflation Euphoria Hit With “Red-Hot” Inflation, Highest Services PCE Since 1984, & Upward Revisions to Oct.-Dec. Inflation Data

By Gordon L. Johnson II

The Fed’s Inflation Problem is Turning into a “Horror Movie”. As we have said many times, the Fed’s measuring stick for its 2% inflation target is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) price index, and specifically…

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February 27, 2023

We Believe we May Know the Reason Sunrun’s Co-Founder is “Suddenly” Stepping Down – i.e., he does not want to be associated w/ this “thing” when it comes tumbling down (i.e., Sunrun is guiding a 1% change in discount rate = a 40% fall in its subscriber value)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

WHAT’S UP? So… Sunrun reports the value it sells systems in the open market as “purchase customer ASP”, and the value it shows the IRS for tax collection purposes (where it uses a cockamamie 25-30yr…

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February 23, 2023

Cash-Incinerating “Dark Science Project” Sunrun is Destroying Capital at an Amazing Clip

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sunrun Sees Record Free-Cash-Flow Burn in Q4 and (Again) Doesn’t Earn its Cost of Capital. Yesterday, subprime solar roofing bellwether RUN reported 4Q22 rev/EBITDA/GAAP-EPS of $609M/-$70M/$0.29 vs. Cons’ $585.3M/-$39.8M/-$0.26. Furthermore, free-cash-flow came in at a…

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February 22, 2023

Solar Weekly Update – 4Q22 California Solar Initiative Update + U.S. Solar Import/Install Update + EU Solar Demand Update

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 12-13), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday by EnergyTrend and PVInsights, respectively. Last week, price changes in China for…

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February 21, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Global Central Banks are “Unilaterally” Withdrawing Liquidity to Fight Inflation; This Will Likely Prove a Headwind to Risk Assets

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Global Central Banks Saw Their Combined Balance Sheets Fall -$237.1B 2/8/23-to-2/15/23, Led by the ECB’s -$127.0B Week-over-Week (“WoW”) Fall. We are of the mindset that the surge in global liquidity since the onset of COVID…

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February 21, 2023

Things Get Worse for Tesla in China; it’s Looking Like China Will Prove a “Big” Problem for Tesla in 1Q23E

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla Posts “Scary” Chinese Numbers. TSLA reported China sales for the week of Feb. 13-Feb. 19, and the numbers were disappointing yet again. That is, we note: (a) TSLA’s domestic China sales were down -15.1%…

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February 17, 2023

NHTSA Recalls Tesla’s FSD Beta “Full Self Driving” System – Our Take on this Very Important Development

By Gordon L. Johnson II

How’d It All Begin? So… the entire full-self-drive mistruth/deception, in our view, began with the credibly alleged fraudulent (according to Bloomberg – link) “Paint it Black” video (link) from 2016, which remains on TSLA’s website….

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February 14, 2023

“Big Trouble in Little China” – TSLA Reports Weekly China Deliveries for the Feb. 6th-to-Feb.12th Period

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Were TSLA’s Jan. 5th 13.4%-to-17.0% China Price Cuts Simply Not Enough? In short, as detailed in Ex. 1 below, we remind our readers that in TSLA’s most important/profitable market of China, on Jan. 5th, 2023,…

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February 13, 2023

What if We Told You We Had a “Magic Elixir” That Allows You to Predict the S&P 500 w/ 84.5% Accuracy?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

What is the Best Measure of Liquidity, and is the Recent “Reckless” Infusion of Liquidity by the Fed the Real Reason Stocks Have Surged Since 2009? In short, looking at the .OLIQ G INDEX on…

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February 9, 2023

An Unexpected “Global Steel Price Reset” Appears Fated; We Move X to SELL from BUY; Yr-End ’23 PT Moves to $13.85 from $42.75 Prior

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Despite a Strong Reaction in the Stock the Day it Reported Q4 Earnings (i.e., Feb. 3rd), with Big River (i.e., X’s Mini-Mill) Reporting Negative EBIT in Q4, as Well as Negative EBIT in X’s USSE…

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February 5, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Were Hedge Funds Caught on the Wrong Side of J. Powell and is the Violent Upside Seen YTD Set to Reverse Just as Fast as it Emerged?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

There has been an Earthquake at Quant Funds that Has Sent Meme Stocks (TSLA + AMC + COIN + GME + BBBY + etc.) Soaring; is it Sustainable? The bears have been decimated this year,…

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January 31, 2023

Solar Snippet – Is NEM 2.0 “Pull-In” Going to Benefit 4Q22 Results & 1Q23E Guide, & Does SolarEdge Have More Resi Inverters Available?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sell-Side Non-Deal Roadshow Last Week Points to NEM 2.0 Pull-In; Should the “Solar Bears” be Worried? In short, last week, we received a number of requests from institutional solar investors no our opinions around the…

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January 31, 2023

Tesla’s Weekly China Sales Report Card is Out – Looks Like E. Musk’s Car Company Will Have to Cut Prices (Again) to Move Metal in China

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Despite Comments to the Contrary from E. Musk on TSLA’s Q4 Earnings Call, Stagnant Lead-Times in China, Despite Sharp Price Cuts, Suggest Tesla Has a Demand Problem in its Largest Market. By way of background,…

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