Our Research


January 30, 2023

GLJ Global Macro Weekly – Is Core Inflation Re-Accelerating, Is Spending on Goods (Following Pandemic Binge) Fizzling Out, and Is there An Easy Explanation for the Recent Surge in “Meme” Stocks?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

While Many Claim the “Inflation Monster” has Been Slayed, with December Services Inflation Spiking and Core PCE Re-Accelerating (Balanced, Modestly, by Goods Inflation Plunging) We Foresee a More Hawkish Powell Later this Week. As is…

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January 25, 2023

Solar Pricing Update (Week of 1/25/23) – Poly-Si + Wafer + Cell Prices Muted Due to CNY; Module Prices, However, Fall

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 1/25/23 – PVInsights. “Depressed international solar modules, muted China silicon materials during Lunar New Year holiday January 25, 2023. Polysilicon was roughly flat on Wednesday as the market in China stayed mute amid…

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January 25, 2023

Q4 Preview – TSLA’s 1Q23E Guidance is the Real “Main Attraction” Given the Company’s Jan. 2023 Midnight Massacre Price Cuts

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Why Do We Say the 1Q23 Guide is What Matters? When looking at the period from 4Q22-to-1Q23, the avg. price decline, thus far, is: (a) -13.3% for the USA, (b) -10.5% for Europe, and (c)…

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January 23, 2023

Nov. California Solar Initiative Insights Into U.S. Battery Storage Trends + 2022 U.S. Solar Imports/Installs Update + State of China Solar Demand

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Solar Weekly Update – Focus on Nov. Battery Storage Data/China Demand Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday…

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January 23, 2023

Following a Full Model Revamp, CSIQ’s Forward Earnings Appear Set to Be Rerated Lower for New Environment; PT Lower to $12.22/shr

By Gordon L. Johnson II

2022 Was a Good Year for Canadian Solar; 2023E Appears Set to be the Exact Opposite. In its most recent quarter, CSIQ reported rev/GAAP-EPS of $1.93B/$1.12 vs. Cons’ ests. of $1.86B/$0.30 (a material beat, at…

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January 18, 2023

Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 1/18/23) – Price Declines Accelerate Week-Over-Week, with 600mm UHP Prices Down -2.55%

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices Give Back (Even More) of the Recent Gains. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite electrode substrates in…

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January 18, 2023

Solar Pricing Update (Week of 1/18/23) – Poly-Si + Wafer + Cell Prices Rebound on Wafer Capacity Cuts; Module Prices, However, Miss the Rally

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 1/18/23 – PVInsights. “Bullish wafer prices through production cuts lead cell and polysilicon upwards January 18, 2023. Polysilicon prices in China turned higher on Wednesday as strengthening wafer pricing buoyed sentiment, while Chinese…

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January 13, 2023

Tesla’s 1/12/23 “Midnight Massacre” US and EU Price Cuts Support our Longstanding Thesis

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Last Night, as We Warned Would Happen on Monday of this Week, Tesla Engaged in Aggressive Price Cuts in Both the US and EU (as well as Canada). As detailed in Ex. 1 below, and…

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January 12, 2023

Do Planned 2023E Shipments from the World’s Top-6 Global Solar Cell Makers, Alone, Suggest a “Price War for the Ages” is About to Erupt?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Solar Weekly Update – Focus on Module Oversupply & Potential Price War Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday…

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January 11, 2023

Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 1/11/13) – UHP 600mm Chinese GE Prices Tumble -3.29% Week-Over-Week, Giving Back Some (More Recent) Gains

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices Give Back Some of the More Recent Gains. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite electrode substrates in…

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January 11, 2023

Solar Pricing Update (Week of 1/11/23) Domestic Chinese Solar Prices Join in “Market Crash”, w/ Poly-Si Falling -24.86% Week-Over-Week

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 1/11/23 – PVInsights. Cell and wafer prices rebound unexpectedly on Strong CNY, but module competition intensifies, sending prices lower. Polysilicon prices kept tumbling this week, unable to shake off the downbeat mood of…

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January 10, 2023

Tesla China Reports First Full Week of Jan. 2023 Car Sales & Full Month of Dec. 2022 Domestic Sales; is there “Big Trouble in Little China”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s China Demand Problems Appear to be Metastasizing (it seems, the company will need a bigger price cut). Early this morning, according to ZHU Yulong microblog, we learned that over the Jan. 2nd-to-Jan. 8th timeframe,…

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January 9, 2023

Are First Solar’s “Iron-Clad” Long-Term Contracts at Risk of Cancellation? Fireside Chat w/ a Top-3 US Solar Distribution Bellwether Provides Insights

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Today, we Had the Chance to Catch up with the Head of US Sales from a Top-Three U.S. Solar Distribution Behemoth (details below). Early this morning, for the first time this new year, we had…

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January 8, 2023

Euro Zone Inflation (Excl. Energy) Just Hit a New Record as Did Services Inflation; ECB Reacts w/ Record Withdrawal of Liquidity (this is Bad for Risk Assets)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Metals & Mining Weekly – The ECB Reacts to Surging Inflation by Draining Huge Chunk of Liquidity & Hiking Rates at Record Pace The European Central Bank (“ECB”) Can’t Seem to Tame the “Inflation Beast”….

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January 6, 2023

Tesla’s ~10.5% “Across the Board” Chinese Price Cuts Last Night Are Much Worse Than You Think

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Tesla’s “Midnight Massacre” Chinese (and Japanese) Price Cuts Last Night Much Worse Than Feared? In short, yes. Why? Well, last night’s TSLA China price cuts (Ex. 1) come after: (a) factory production was cut…

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