Our Research


January 13, 2023

Tesla’s 1/12/23 “Midnight Massacre” US and EU Price Cuts Support our Longstanding Thesis

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Last Night, as We Warned Would Happen on Monday of this Week, Tesla Engaged in Aggressive Price Cuts in Both the US and EU (as well as Canada). As detailed in Ex. 1 below, and…

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January 12, 2023

Do Planned 2023E Shipments from the World’s Top-6 Global Solar Cell Makers, Alone, Suggest a “Price War for the Ages” is About to Erupt?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Solar Weekly Update – Focus on Module Oversupply & Potential Price War Price Tracker. Applying a modified approach, we detail PV pricing data by substrate (Ex. 3-4), segmented by Chinese and global prices, tracked each Wednesday…

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January 11, 2023

Graphite Electrode Pricing Update (Week of 1/11/13) – UHP 600mm Chinese GE Prices Tumble -3.29% Week-Over-Week, Giving Back Some (More Recent) Gains

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Graphite Electrode Prices Give Back Some of the More Recent Gains. Below, in Ex. 1, we provide 2023 (i.e., WoW, MoM, YoY, and YTD) pricing gyrations for a number of different graphite electrode substrates in…

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January 11, 2023

Solar Pricing Update (Week of 1/11/23) Domestic Chinese Solar Prices Join in “Market Crash”, w/ Poly-Si Falling -24.86% Week-Over-Week

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Commentary from 1/11/23 – PVInsights. Cell and wafer prices rebound unexpectedly on Strong CNY, but module competition intensifies, sending prices lower. Polysilicon prices kept tumbling this week, unable to shake off the downbeat mood of…

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January 10, 2023

Tesla China Reports First Full Week of Jan. 2023 Car Sales & Full Month of Dec. 2022 Domestic Sales; is there “Big Trouble in Little China”?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Tesla’s China Demand Problems Appear to be Metastasizing (it seems, the company will need a bigger price cut). Early this morning, according to ZHU Yulong microblog, we learned that over the Jan. 2nd-to-Jan. 8th timeframe,…

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January 9, 2023

Are First Solar’s “Iron-Clad” Long-Term Contracts at Risk of Cancellation? Fireside Chat w/ a Top-3 US Solar Distribution Bellwether Provides Insights

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Today, we Had the Chance to Catch up with the Head of US Sales from a Top-Three U.S. Solar Distribution Behemoth (details below). Early this morning, for the first time this new year, we had…

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January 8, 2023

Euro Zone Inflation (Excl. Energy) Just Hit a New Record as Did Services Inflation; ECB Reacts w/ Record Withdrawal of Liquidity (this is Bad for Risk Assets)

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Metals & Mining Weekly – The ECB Reacts to Surging Inflation by Draining Huge Chunk of Liquidity & Hiking Rates at Record Pace The European Central Bank (“ECB”) Can’t Seem to Tame the “Inflation Beast”….

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January 6, 2023

Tesla’s ~10.5% “Across the Board” Chinese Price Cuts Last Night Are Much Worse Than You Think

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Are Tesla’s “Midnight Massacre” Chinese (and Japanese) Price Cuts Last Night Much Worse Than Feared? In short, yes. Why? Well, last night’s TSLA China price cuts (Ex. 1) come after: (a) factory production was cut…

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January 5, 2023

It Appears Sunrun Lost its Largest Banker (Credit Suisse) & is Replacing Funding at a ~3% Cost w/ Funding at a ~7% Cost; This is Nothing Short of a Disaster

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Based on Details from Sunrun’s $835M Funding Announced Today, we Believe the Residential Solar Space is Looking at “Big Problems” in 2023E. Today, we learned that RUN closed a $835M funding round, consisting of a…

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January 4, 2023

Has The Market “Really” Priced in the Severity of a Likely 2023E Earnings Recession?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Metals & Mining Weekly – Focus on Recent Inflation Data as well as What China’s Disorderly Opening Means It Seems the Recently Weaker Inflation Data, While Bullish for Bonds, Could Prove Bearish for Stocks. While…

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January 4, 2023

Did Sunrun Receive an Adverse Outcome Notification Regarding its Ongoing IRS Audit, Implying Material Going Concern Risk?

By Gordon L. Johnson II

Sunrun has Been Under IRS Audit Since 2018, Which is Still Ongoing. By way of background, as per page 32 of RUN’s 3Q22 10-Q filing (Ex. 1), we remind our readers that as of 11/2/22…

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